May Summary

May Results Summary:

May ended with a miserable feel Sideways drift / Draw-down circled on chart starting around 19th.

But overall where is May?

Stand back and bit of perspective - doesn't feel too good but did ok for the month as a whole.
Would much prefer of course to trend without volatility straight up on a clean slope! Damn those Random unkowns!

A Look at the Derby

Playing the Group Races
Summary from post 23 May

If we look at the Derby History there have been only 3 really long shot winners since 1970 - conversely the Oaks is a nightmare!

We apply the very basic Dutch frame formula   i.e. How many runners can be covered at the 4.86 dutch ratio generating a return figure of 45+

We now check the Race specific history (preferably at least the 10 yr. trend)
I use the sporting life free cards for this (go to bottom of field >Race History > show more)

Rule:
Dutch frame must cover 90%+ strike rate against the race specific results trend.

So where does the Derby figure in the spectrum of Group Race opportunities for  framing a reasonable dutch bet? 

Derby 2015

Derby is basically a top of the market race with 16 clear favs. winning over those 44 years. But you can also go 8 or 9 years without a winning favourite
You wont go 8 years without a return dutching the field.

Here is the basic Dutch frame draft for this years race. We can cover a seven runner frame up to 23.0 which easily meets the 90% strike rate on the race with only 3 long price winners since 1970.

In the 15 year record the highest priced winner is 7/1 so perhaps you will consider the 7 runner frame too conservative? Either way in 44 years it would have lost twice.

Target the fav. Golden Horn - Return @ 160
Target 1st + 2nd      - Return @ 104
Target 1st + 2nd + 3rd  - Return @ 82

Other runners in the frame hedged to break-even.
It might be best to wait a day or so Gleneagles is yet to be full declared.
So Derby is one of the Group races to include in Dutch bets; the Oaks a completely different story.

sunday 31 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Early Dutch frames

The 14;30 Fake race is a Non Bet currently
Only take this bet if the Price Gap between 3rd & 4th in market is >=2pts At the Off.

If in doubt swerve the race.

The Blog Early bets I only record as guidance. Whether or not anyone takes a bet on is down to their own tactics.
This 14;30 race I personally did take. Just before the off The Prcie Gap was between 1.5 -2 pts. I take bets down to 1.5pts but put up for guidance a target Gap of 2pts.
If the original bet was taken but then the situation is changed ATO. On this race the bet would cancel before the off for a small loss @£10 & In_Play could green up easily for @ 40£ profit. I wouldn't recommend to Green Up Dutch bets In_Play unless you are very well set up and experienced to get fully matched on all runners selected.

As events unfolded the 4th runner threat disappeared before the halfway.

In the 14;50 Killbegan I took the additional Targeted Bet on the favorite Do Try Dolly - for no other reason than Andy Holden gave it a strong Nap on his wiliam Hill blog. So just a whim! and didn't put it up.

saturday 30 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Early Dutch frames 

Update @ 16;30

friday 29 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Early Dutch frames 13;30 Upload

Quick update on the 14;10 Newc race.
I got the bet on at 5 runner frame - but the market is tightening quickly. This has now changed to a 4 runner frame with return of @ 95 - it remains a live bet thro' the filters.

thursday 28 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Early 13;20 Upload

No update today

wednesday 27 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Early

Evening update 17;30 Late

tuesday 26 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Couldn't manage to find an upload yesterday.
Afternoon Upload @ 13;30

Since @ 18 May both Early bets and ATO full bets have been on a choppy drawdown/ side ways drift with results.
See if we shape up this week and get back to the right trajectory?

Afternoon 5 no: Early Dutch Frames

Evening Update @ 17;30

sunday 24 may

Todays Dutch Bets



Afternoon 5 no: Early Dutch Frames

Group Race Dutching

Playing the Group Races

Like every punter I like to be in on the seasons Group series.
These races do not meet the main system criteria, but there is a lot of variation between individual races.

• These are strictly Playing your profits bets only. Remember we are filtering a sample of 10 or so runs of a race to make a comparison against a long term Group sample > 2.5k The compare with tuf maidens were the 10yr rolling sample is >20k!

If we look at the Derby History there have been only 3 really long shot winners since 1978 - conversely the Oaks is a nightmare!

I will take today's Haydock Temple stakes Group 2 as the example.

Firstly I have to bypass the Shape of Market filters, the group races fail them (because the general long term stats are too low on Strike and Uplift from my figures)

We apply the very basic Dutch frame formula   i.e. How many runners can be covered at the 4.86 dutch ratio generating a return figure of 45+
The answer in this race is 8 runners up to a price currently of 16.0 covered in the Dutch Frame.

We now check the Race specific history (preferably at least the 10yr trend)
I use the sporting life free cards for this (go to bottom of field >Race History > show more)

here find the scroll down from the Sporting Life card with trend since 2000 for the Temple Stakes

Rule:
Dutch frame must cover 90%+ strike rate against the race specific results trend.

If this is met (In this example we have 15yr record & Dutch Frame must Price cover 13-14 of them to qualify the race this year) - I will have a look at a Target Bet  I want to cover for the race.
 I use my preferred speed figures, etc,  apply whatever filtering of the runners you prefer? It could be All on the fav.? just the 3rd & 6th ion the market, whatever your preference.

You can see in the final screen shot I have covered the 8 runner Dutch Frame and targeted the top 5 in the betting, reducing the others to break even cover.
I was going to leave out 'Goldstream' from the target group because I prefer to operate over minimum return of 100 on the Target group. But decided left in this time.


If say your own ratings have a preference for Great Minds, then put him in the Target Group and leave another runner out. For these entertainment bets you can cover the ground without reference to the main system

Summary:

• Form Basic Dutch frame
• Check race specific results trend
• Check Dutch Frame provides 90% + price cover against trend results.
• Use Ratings of preference to form Target Bet
• Sit back enjoy Group race entertainment

I will put up this years Derby Field as an example next week. Of course if you're convinced Golden Horn is a certainty take no notice!

saturday 23 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Will be putting a supplement up later on how to cover Group Races. Although they excluded from the basic system, I often want to be involved with them and use the Dutch frame to target my (entertainment) bets in the main events.


Afternoon 3 no: Early Dutch Frames

Evening Update @ 17;30

Friday 22may

Todays Dutch Bets

Yesterdays heavily backed 16;25 at Goodwood: 
Nothing could touch the smooth winner Lady of Dubai. But the heavily late punted Loaves and Fishes (16/1-7/1) ran well and led faded into final furlong -then Dettori made sure he fell out of the first 3 (rascal) So messed around with the Dutch Frame bet - but one to go in the tracker as potential targeted bet nto.


Afternoon 3 no: Early Dutch frames

• In the 14;40 Bath the potential 4 runner Dutch frame is a good bet IF the price gap to the 5th runner extends. Take the additional bet if the GAP extends to >=2pts

Evening Cards

thursday 21 may

Todays Dutch Bets



taking a bit of hit at the moment.

Afternoon meets: 2 no: Early dutch frames

The 16;25 Gdwd race is an example of when the market moves against the Early bet.
This risk factor with the Early bets needs to be checked and adjustment taken on the final bet.
(its not a frequent occurrence and on majority of occasions it will not matter, but with any significant money down it needs adjusting for)

So what has happened?

• Firstly the front of the fav. is weak and the Dutch frame has increased to a 4 runner frame instead of the 3 runner posted Early.
• Second  Miss Giler has been backed in to 4th in the market and quite strongly so that the price GAP between 3rd and 4th is too small to allow the original 3 runner frame ( 9.6 > 11.0 )

Revised 4 runner frame as per screen shot. The return is lower at 48.3 The price GAP between Dutch frame and Next in market (11-16) is fine and this is the live bet, but wait until ATO now and check the price gap is still ok to go live 
With @ 80k matched in the market is shouldn't move significantly now, but as the moves are happening its best to wait until ATO.

So quite a story to this wild Goodwood market In the last hour Loaves and Fishes had a sustained gamble right up to the off, touching 3rd fav, whilst Miss Giler drifted again. and the final Dutch Frame switched around again!

As it turned out Lady of Dubai won well and non of these market jitters mattered? 

But it is necessary to match market moves and take the correct ATO position with significant money down. 80+% of the time it wont matter but occasionally it does.


 Evening meets 3 no: additional Early Dutch Frames.

On very few occassions will we meet markets as difficult as the earlier Goodwood race. Most races just firm up once there is sufficient liquidity in the market.

If in doubt about any Dutch Bet placed cancel it and avoid losses.

With this form of betting the priority is not try to win - it is to try to avoid losses. In this 90+% strike rate scenario there is no relevant sequence of bets, no single bet recovering a losing streak. Its ok to miss one out. The key objective is to keep volatility under the tightest control possible.

So if doubt creeps in - Say its not a market move but a mid afternoon drenching thunder storm hits the racecourse! And you doubt the bet remains sound?  Cancel It.
Usually there is an opportunity to green out the whole Dutch bet. There's a bunch of winning ones ahead.

I use Geek (on a separate machine and screen) as back up to the dutching platform.
In the first of the evening bets you can see in this screenshot I can cancel the whole 3 runner Dutch bet using Geek for a minimal £2.02 loss - if i felt something was drastically wrong. One click cancel.

wednesday 20 may

Todays Dutch Bets



Yesterday I fell on my nose with a losing race and a losing target bet - still left with small profit on the day. 
Motto is - wrap your opinion on a race inside a Dutch bet, then when you're wrong you at least usually break even!

Todays racing really is quite desperate bad and lot of non-runners with changing conditions.

No Bets on the afternoon meets -more selected races on the evening meets, should be some live 

Update evening @ 17;30

tuesday 19 may

Todays Dutch Bets



I am placing my next Targeted bet early today, as I think the market will move around. Taking a bit of a flyer on the 5 runner Ducth Frame (but will correct later if requires)

Nott 16;00  -Theres only @ 10k matched currently

• Maybe Definately for additional return of 160 Currently 2nd fav.

Full house of Early selections on the afternoon cards
7 no: Dutch frames

Maybe Definitely remains second fav. in Target bet race. Bit surprised about that?   -    tut!tut!  this is when opinion takes over from statistics. A probability forecast based on the correct market dutch frame beats opinion hands down long term.

Evening Update 3 no: Dutch Frames
The 18;20 Chel race has a strong fav. It were a toss up between Acaster Malbis and Maybe Definately for the Target Bet. Unfortunately  market was right with the newcomer and the target bet faded badly after trying to fend the fav. ioff.
No damage on a clean afternoon.
At moment the outmarket in 18;20 is still unsettled - I will probably take it ATO

monday 18 may

Todays Dutch Bets



4 No: Afternoon Early dutch frames

Evening meet Update 

Although we have 8 selected races non qualify Early - so no further Dutch frames to add today. I could take a flyer on a couple of them , but really its just gambling that when the liquidity kicks in late, the markets don't shift. So I am leaving all my own bets until ATO.

sunday 17 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Early Dutch Frames I have taken

14;00 Market Raisen  -  3 runner frame
14;10 Ripon       -   5 runner frame
14;15 Navan      -  3 runner frame
14;20 Stratford  -  2 runner frame
14;30 Limerick   -  8 runner frame
16;05 Limerick   -  4 runner frame
16;35 Limerick   -   2 runner frame
17;25 Ripon       -  3 runner frame

busier than expected sunday.

**The 14;30 Limerick market has tightened up towards post time. It remains a live dutch at 6 runners / 55.8 return at ATO.
- fav has moved from 5.7 early to 2.9 ATO hence reduced frame.

Either way 2nd fav turned him over. That Limerick race took the Early bets return through 10k. for the YTD. See if we can keep it going!

saturday 16 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Afternoon 5 Early Dutch Frames.

Also I am taking the Targeted Bet today on Telescope - Currently 4 runner Dutch Frame with Telescope at targeted 103.5 return.
Need it - got shafted by Brown Panther coming second at York yesterday!

here are the Targeted numbers / Stake split on the 14;00 Newbury
Remember this is a an additional bet (doubling the stake on the race) I take only when bankroll is to full units.

Decent afternoon with 5 dutch wins + Target bet win. No extra Early selections on the evening meets.

Friday 15 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Large quality fields and big Dutch frames today
Three qualify as afternoon Early Bets

No Update today for evening meets. 
Will still be celebrating or licking wounds if Brown Panther doesn't do the business for me at York.

Thursday 14 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Wont be covering the evening update today (and possibly tomorrow if weather holds up) 
So here's the full race selection list for anyone who wants to check them out. I'll have the full results so will post them up.
Had good run of results recently , fingers X'd! Also get the Targeted bets back on stream asap to help the Early bets forward.

Afternoon upload  upto the 16;50 York @ 13;15: early Dutch Bets

thursday results summary:

Early bets: No bets in the afternoon & 4 bets onto the evening meets.

(Some extra races are coloured up which became ATO live bets)

There were some poor results out there  - ATO bets took 3 no: losses on the day. In total 20 races were on the selection list - 3 of the 20 were losing events, so Early Bets swerved / survived a poor day.

Sometimes in a storm its best to stay in harbour:
If only they were predictable; 
Even at a 92% strike rate these random Clusters of losses develop (and hurt!) Keep the money management very strict is the only survival strategy. Pity the poor guy at 20% strike rate.

On the YTD chart a bit of recent catch up for the Early bets - you can see on the full ATO bets there's been some pretty choppy returns recently, compared to a good run for the Early selections.

The Early bets P/L is currently at 60.3% of the full ATO P/L.

wednesday 13 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Afternoon upload 4 no: early Dutch Bets

Evening update   - 2 No: Dutch frames so far

tuesday 12 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Yesterdays results returned the YTD P/L to a high so I will re-start the additional targeted bets.

Only 1 uk turf meeting but lot of racing!

Update @ 17;30 for eve. meets.

There's been some mighty lot of action today!

*I can definitely remember worse days*

monday 11 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Two Early Dutch Frames

• 15;15 Doncaster          -  4 runner frame
• 16;40 Wolverhampton  -  6 runner frame

Update 

sunday 10 may

Todays Dutch Bets

Very little liquidity around with most races less than 10k matched early.
Lazy day sunday markets

A few of these will be ok ATO, but just the two for now.

saturday 9 may

Todays Dutch Bets

The 14;25 & 14;50  -  2 runner dutch frames I have included, but only take on if the price gap to the third in the market remains >=2.0
In the 14;25 the third in market Decisive looks well behind the other two.

• Alternatively the safety first bet of taking the 3 runner dutch frame with Decisive hedged down to break even delivers @ 56.0 return,

I will run with the above safety option for the early bet 

Similarly in the 14;50 the third in market Clear Spring looks well off the mark of the two in the Dutch frame.

Here is the bet configured with the third in the market hedged down to break even Return reduced to 60.58

as it turned out too safe!! as first two fought out a good finish well clear.

Update for evening meets

Friday 8 may

Todays Dutch Bets

I was handed out a bit of a pasting yesterday (like quite a few others!)

Todays afternoon Dutch Frames

Evening races Update
Really poor conditions everywhere other than Ascot, But I need to recover a  proportion of losses? Level stakes, no chasing, grind it out back to a YTD max. bank roll figure.
At least I 'm further ahead than the guy who placed a £205k single bet with William Hill on the hung parliament. Hope he still has enough left for a decent drink.

Thursday 7 may Early dutch frames

Todays Dutch Bets

Update @ 17;15 for evening races.
Back to todays standard bets - keep the emotion out of the decisions!

• 5 no: Early Dutch Frames for afternoon meets.
• The target bet I am taking posted below is currently 198 return. So that's the figure I will record. Loch Garman now taken clear favorite

Update