monday 30 november

Dutch Lite Bets

Have to live off thin gruel on the last day of the month!
Abysmal racing in abysmal conditions.
Will post a month end results update later.


Today's Pre-List & Yesterday's results:

Yesterday's 9 no; selected races were all taken by a horse within the Dutch Frame- of which 6 were Live Bets.
Today's numbers for 4 no: potential Frames

sunday 29 november

Dutch Lite Bets
Yesterday's 16 races on the pre-list were all taken by a 'Frame' runner - surprisingly not a single real upset despite the bottomless ground.
Off the 16  pre-list I had 8 Live races left after Shape of market filters.


Today's Pre-List & yesterday's results:

No Live updates today. Pre-list 9 no: races to consider. Back at base and Live tomorrow - will have month end results round up - been a good November for me.

saturday 28 november

Dutch Lite Bets


Today's Pre-List:

No Live updates today.

friday 27 november

Dutch Lite Bets


Today's cards:

Use the margin bet on races similar to the 13;10 where just scrapping the minimum return.




*** 13;10 Muss has tightened to a 4 runner Dutch Frame which is ok Live ATO***

*** 13;55 - the price gap is ok ATO 6.8 > 8.2 so ok Live Bet - 4 runner Dutch Frame***


Update @ 17;15:

Personally I wouldn't want to be riding a horse in Dundalk tonight, not even in a v thick pullover.

Afternoon results + later potential frames.
 

thursday 26 november

Dutch Lite Bets

Today's cards:

Quick run through the 13;10 novice Hurdle:

•  If the return on the 3 runner Dutch Frame is reduced below 85(i.e. the Book value on the bet has Increased > 85%) and is stable (not fluctuating @ 85) plus the Price Gap between 3rd -4th in market is =>2pts  this will be an additional Live Bet ATO to the 6 no: potential list.

Here is the Live feed for the 13;10 timed @ ATO. The Bookvalue is 86.6% - conversely the Return has fallen below the 85 requirement (Stake needs adjusting up but still well in) & the Price Gap is met 7.6 > 11.0. So the Bet meets the criteria and is ok Live.

Fortunately for the example all goes well and the fav. takes the race!

Update:

wednesday 25 november

Dutch Lite Bets

Lot of Late Card AW races today. 
No Target Bets & because first race is early 12;00 probably some market moves after posting.
Last Target Bet was no: 50 - I'll post up the first 50 results table tonight.

Today's cards:

Some 'What If' help

• 12;00 Ling -  If this reduces to a 2 runner Dutch Frame - will remain a Live Bet.
• 12;50 Weth - If? also reduced to a 2 runner Dutch Frame remains a Live bet.
• 13;50 Weth  - 8 runner Dutch frame reduces to 7 runners No Bet other factors have to change - I will try and update if this one (most likely) moves around.

The 13;50 race remained an open market with the 8 runner Dutch frame up to the off. For a while the 8th position fluctuated but it settled down and cristalized out before the last few minutes.

Screen shot shows the 8 runner return near the off. The race winner was 6th in the market.

Shape of the Market Tells you the Dutch Frame.

Late card update @ 17;30:


***18;35 has reduced to a 3 runner Frame - remains a Live Bet @ current 54 return***

tuesday 24 november

Dutch Lite Bets
The 13;00 maiden hurdle is on the Polytrack - but I'll take it on.

Today's cards:

monday 23 november

Dutch Lite Bets

Target Bet 'Fletchers Flyer' let me down and was turned over by the v strong second fav. in a good race. That's the advantage of the Dutching methodology I follow - my Opinion on the race turned out to be wrong - but no losses and the second fav. delivering the goods on the standard bet.

After a poor Friday's results it was a clean weekend with 22 no: Race selections all won by a runner within the projected 'Frame' Of these 22 it was only possible to go Live on 12 of the races (13 on the ATO listing)

ATO bet P/L is 38,743 year to date @ 91% strike rate and edge 3.6% across the 2,236 Live bets. With the Target bets and Group bets its already through the 40k mark.
No Losing months and a Live sample of 2236 should be enough to keep the conviction on the edge showing through when taking those bets into a drawdown period?

Obviously for many the bet volume isn't something they can follow. But the basic strategy here can be worked intermittently, there's no downside to this at 91% strike,  and the basic strategy can be added to with a greater level of target betting, selectivity, etc, within the race selection process. 

Weekend Results & YTD figures for all ATO bets:

Afternoon Cards: @ 12;45

*** the 13;20 Ludlow market has tightened and it looks as though the Dutch Frame will remain down to 4 runners. In this race this will still be a Live Bet. Take the 4 runner frame if the 5 runner opportunity has gone ATO***

Update
There's just the one additional bet for me on the Chelmsford card.
Note: with a Price Gap of @ 7 -19 to the 5th in the market I usually take these bets on early to grab the return.

sunday 22 november

Dutch Lite Bets

I've taken Fletchers Flyer as an additional  Taerget Bet  in the 14;00 Extr novice chase. Return @ 120 when I matched.

•  Three no: potential Dutch Frames today.

Afternoon cards:

***12;40 Navan is a No Bet if return is Above 84 near the off***
***13;10 Navan is now a Live Bet - 5 runner Dutch Frame***


 
 Additional Target Bet.

saturday 21 november

Dutch Lite Bets

Two loses yesterday on the All Weather cards. I didn't take the second one in the 19;05 Dundalk maiden -it looked a dog of a race and I'm surprised it got through the filters? Will have a look at that, just one of those quirky situations.  The AW cards have been very erratic recently - but hopefully back on track today.

Afternoon cards:

Wolverhampton Card + Results:

There are 2 no: potential frames on the Wolverhampton card tonight -i'm going to leave them alone in view of recent late results and a good afternoon haul.

There were 8 no: selected races - all within the Dutch frame matched to winners -  6 no: worked through as Live bets. 
The 13;00 Gowran Park tightened down to a 2 runner Dutch Frame but remained a Live ATO bet. Same with the 13;35 race but became a No Bet for this 2 runner frame in the large field - as it turned out there was nothing among the other 19 runners to touch the Willie Mullins hot pot favorite!

friday 20 november

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon cards:

• in the 13;55 Hayd there are two near the off checks. First that the Price Gap on the Dutch Frame has stabalized + the return figure remains < 85.
• The 13;00 Ascot will be a Live bet for me if the favorite price firms up 2.75 or lower - looks like it will?

Update:

 

thursday 19 november

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon cards:

wednesday 18 november

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon cards:

***12;50 race No Bet ATO - Price Gap remaining below the min. 2pts***

here is a screen shot right at the delayed off. 
Chief Broddy 10.5 - Royale salute 12.0 A 1.5pt Price Gap on the Dutch Frame.
Sometimes if the gap is chipping between 2pts -1.5pts I am ok taking the bet at 1.5 here is more 1pt -1.5pt and I just leave it alone.
As it turned out the fav. dominated the race and won - but No Bet for me.

Update @ 17;15
Results off the afternoon cards + 4 no: additional evening card frames to consider.

On the afternoon results 12;50 was a No bet on the Price Gap: 14;50 Reduced to a 2 runner frame which remained a Live bet ATO.

tuesday 17 november

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon cards:

monday 16 november

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon cards:

***My Target bet for today was Culture de Sivola in the 12;45 -but I was too late to post it up! To do list - Must get better organised***

In the 13;00 it may be necessary to take the margin bet on the 3 runner frame (with the last runner of the frame hedged down to break even) as per screen shot.
On my own betting i take this option regularly when the return is below 50-55.

The race was taken by the 2nd fav.
The following live feed screenshot shows the reduced two runner dutch frame just on ATO. 
On this occasion it would have won with a 185+ return But the Book value is way off the Target threshold. For my own betting I always take the Margin bet and wouldn't consider the reduced Frame size. I don't want the steep volatility which will arrive sooner or later with the reduced Frame unless it makes the Book value criteria.

sunday 15 november

Dutch Lite Bets

Some good racing today but most of the grade 1/2 races eliminate themselves through depth / quality down the market.
Afternoon cards:

•  4 no: early frames to consider for today

 

saturday 14 november

Dutch Lite Bets

First Update @ 14;00 today

Afternoon cards:

•  6 no: early frames to consider. Some without Price Gap at Upload time.

***Punch 11:55 No Bet -market switching around & No Price Gap***
***Punch 12;25 Also No Bet -minimum return gone on the 4 runner frame. ***

*** I'm taking my Target Bet today in the 12;30 On Captain Chaos - should be able to get @ the 100 return mark***

Update:

Only 2 Live bets off the early Upload - markets are pretty poor for me today. At least the additional Target Bet went in for me as Captain Chaos smoothly took the Uttox novice hurdle.

 Three more potential frames off the afternoon and I'll look at a final update @ 18;30 for the Wolverhampton card.

 
Two final frames off the late card

friday 13 november

Dutch Lite Bets

If I had looked at the afternoon cards last night I doubt I'd bother getting up for Friday the 13th.
Four runners for the Chelt novice hurdle paying the winner 17.5k? Why?

Afternoon cards:

•  Three potential frames to look at.

***12;20 Ling maiden has drifted into a 4 runner Frame - No Price Gap No Bet***

***The 13;40 novice chase market tightens to a 4 runner frame. The 4 runner frame is @ 85% Book Value and remains Live Bet with Price Gap 6.6 - 9.4 near the off***

Update & afternoon results

• 3 no: additional off the late cards

thursday 12 november

Dutch Lite Bets


Yesterdays results:

• Took a loss again in the last Dutch Frame - 3 runner frame  - of the Day. Finishing order 4-3-1-2  the 4th in the market 'Consulting' just held on,overturning the Dutch Frame runners by the margin of a nostril. That damn narrow margin between good days and not so good days? OK all run of the mill action we do all the stats for, but it can still feel mighty irritating right at the close of the day. 

And Hanagan push his bl**dy neck out its the line!! He can't hear me.

Far side Consulting takes it!

Afternoon cards @ 12;30 upload time

• 6 no: potential Dutch Frames off the afternoon cards.

Note in the 15;30 Ludlow I have put a question mark in?
If the return drops below 84 it remains a live bet. If the return is 85 or higher NO BET.
Explanation: Return of 85 is approx 85% Bk Val on the Dutch Frame. For this one bet configuration of 4_3 the Book Value needs to be higher than 85.(Inverse relationship with Return for Book Value to increase Return will decrease)

Here is a clearer explanation. From the Live feed screen shot you can see the return on the 3 runner Dutch Frame is currently at 93.09 & Bk Val. below the required 85 at 83.9 If this were to remain the case near the off - it would be a No Bet.

***The 12;50 race becomes a No Bet as the Price Gap has disappeared near the off; or @ 0-1pt only***

In the 15;30 Ludl the Frame return settled around the &0 mark ATO and I took the live bet.

• 2 no: additional Frames off the late meets.

wednesday 11 novbember

Dutch Lite Bets

First Pat Eddery. Much too soon to lose him. I hope one of his final recollections was that perfection of timing he unleashed up the Arc straight on Dancing Brave.



I haven't been able to upload Live last day or two. 
Turned out my router/wfi had gone bonkers!

• Three losing bets so still treading water. Could do with a good run soon to nail the year end targets.

When the full year results are complete - I hope there will be a confidence level achieved that there is a long term edge behind the results.
There should be a record of at least 2k Live bets and I'm expecting to push through the 40k return on my own ATO bets. So yes there are tough runs but applying the edge with discipline eventually trumps the volatility.

I am looking at rehashing the site then with a members area to access some very Targeted bets that I use.

Wednesday Afternoon Cards

• 4 no: Dutch Frames off the afternoon, subject to Price Gap near the race times.

Update

• 4 no: additional frames off the late cards
• I should be taking at least one good return Target Bet - I'll post up later.

Target Bet

I'm taking Prince of Arran in the Kempton maiden @ 215 return

sunday 8 november

Dutch Lite Bets


Sunday Cards:

• 7 no: Dutch Frames I am looking at off today's cards.

 

saturday 7 november

Dutch Lite Bets


Yesterdays results:

• there were no Live post yesterday. Here is the result record. Mainly due to gales and my satellite dish nearly blowing off wall! There was one spoiler with the 3rd horse taking overturning the 2 runner Frame in the 19;10 Chelmford maiden

  Today's Dutch Frames.

The only positive I have on today's racing is that it will be over for me early. Certainly wont be trying to unravel any of those back end handicaps on offer! 

• Just the 4 no: frames for me to look at off some poor cards.
• CeeJay looks well clear in the 12;10 at Doncaster - but  I don't want to pile into additional Target Bets off the turf  in the last week?