Cheltenham Roundup
There were seventeen selected races over the four days. Of the seventeen one would have been a losing bet - but its unlikely anyone would have been drawn into the Grd 1 Novice hurdle on Friday with 20 runners?
Shape of the Market filters left me with 11 no: live races and a return on the festival of @ 850 with the additional Target bets I took.
I'm not a punter weighing in often these days. I had just two serious 'On the Nose' bets on favorites in a couple of the selected races. Footpad on Tuesday at evens and Altior on Wednesday at 11/10.
It must have been one of the easier years for punters to make money, I'm sure quite a number did and I must seem over cautious to those who did well!
Hope you were one of them?
Cheltenham ~ Gold Cup day
Two out of the 4 no: potential Dutch races are live for today.
First up the Triumph Hurdle - this year unusually a tight market and only 9 no: runners lining up. Has the fav. frightened them off?
Here is the 5 runner Dutch Frame and also the additional fav. Target bet which I will be taking on Apples Shakira. I might extend the Target to include Alan Kings Redicean, which is attracting money, it doesn't reduce the return below 100 and two onside feels better in the Triumph!!
In the Gold Cup we have an extended Dutch Frame covering 9 no: runners.
I will probably Target four of them as per the second screen shot, rather than take the standard equal return Dutch. So Might Bite, Native River, Killultagh Vic & Road to Respect on side for me with cover off the other five.
Good luck for Gold Cup day.
Cheltenham ~ thursday
Good day for me yesterday. Sickening to see Ruby Walshaw down and a repeat leg injury.
Today there are 3 no: potential Dutch Bets.
- 15;30 Stayers Hurdle is a no bet.
Leaving us the three.
- 6 runner Frame in the 13;30, 4 runner Frame in the 14;50 & 5 runner Frame in the 16;50.
The 14;50 Ryanair Gd1 chase is subject to a higher price Gap between the last in the 4 runner Dutch Frame and the Next in the market(currently 14~15 needs to increase before the off). Subject to a higher than 1 pt Price Gap currently showing this will be a live bet too.
Best bet today is the Grd 2 novice hurdle 16;50. The 5 runner frame + fav. Target Bet - best on the card.
Looks a tough punters day today? Good luck.
14;50 Update
Just about got the Price Gap near the off, so took the bet
Balko Des Flos late gamble right up to the off and turned over the fav. Un De Sceaux quite comfortably!
Cheltenham ~ wednesday
You'ver got to admire Ruby! Straight back from a bad leg break (4th time that leg!) and two winners on the first day. His hard drive finish on Bene Des Dieux in the OLBG mares hurdle to take the outsider with Apple's Jade well turned over kept me out of trouble on day 1.
Today 4 no: races qualify. The three runner 'Frame' in the Queen Mother chase 15;30 looks a particular strong bet - but confess I have taken Altior as a value priced fav. and one of only two bets I am chancing on the nose!
Here are the markets /Frame sizes from the 3 runner frame in the 15;30 up to a 7 runner frame (favorite hedged) in the 16;10.
First day was very much a punters day - hope it holds up for Altior going in later. Both the second and third favs. are strong opposition leaving Altior at a relative value price. The sensible advice is probably stick with the Dutch Bet!!
Cheltenham ~ tuesday
First day of the festival has just the two live bet situations for Dutching today, from the five potential non-handicap races. (Good luck with the Cheltenham Handicaps!!)
Both the Champions Hurdle 15;30 and the OLBG Mares Hurdle 16;10 have strong favs. in Henderson's Buveur D'air and later Apple's Jade. Grade 1 racing to savour at last, neither fav. is a well clear proposition off most speed figures!
Plenty of factors in play with the first two days on the Old course and potential heavy going.
I will just be trying to get through day~1 without mishap and take the available Dutch Frames of 5 runners with Buveur D'Air and the tighter 3 runner Frame with Apple's Jade.
The Supreme Novice Hurdle doesn't qualify and Footpad's market in the Arkle novice chase 14;10 is currently too tight although it may imrove towards the off - I would be taking the Target bet on Footpad if the market does ease?
Wipe Out & Continuing
It's been terrible fare through Jan and Feb and v-hard to turn a buck!
To be honest I've done so much coughing and wheezing combined with the intermittent racing, my interest has been minimal.
First day of March and no racing at all across the UK, many meetings already abandoned into the weekend, with less than 2 weeks to the start of Cheltenham. I need the markets to settle down and deliver some consistent playable races.
Here's the state of play to the end of Feb with a couple of month end losses keeping the miserable trend going!
