Saturday 12 Jan

Target Bets and my own List to Follow

I'm having my own Target bet today on Joseph O'Briens  - Gardens of Babylon - in the 13;00 race. It's not a bet I'm advising but an opportunity to show some of the additional bets I take.

January is usually a month I'm just glad to get through Dutching. This year the conditions have been good so far and at the moment there is around 850 profit in despite low quality racing. Personally I don't like AW racing when the temperature is well below freezing, although I have no evidence this really affects the market. So far this year v little freezing conditions.

Each year I compile a short list of high speed rated 2yo to follow during the following year. I like to bet these in the better quality races and Grp events through the flat.

Some of these spill over into the winter and a few moving to NH. 

Gardens of Eden was one of these and came good for me on New Years eve at 11/1. Today he is up from a Maiden Hurdle, I'm not going to risk another bet on  the nose, but use the Dutch Target bet.

The payout is 247 to the standard 486 dutch.

I have to place these manually The Automated Target Bets are only on selected favourites.

The list also produced a good winner at Meydan last week with Dream Today going in at 16/1

Later in the month I'll publish the list for 2019 just out of interest it allows me to follow the best of the summer racing and usually produces a good return. Also the simple criteria I use. Pinched from a last century Raceform Van der Wheil  'The missing Link' booklet and updated. It's served me well over the years. 

Here is the Dash for the 13;00 race. On the automated betting its showing a No bet at the moment, if the fav. hardens up a little before the off it will crystalize into a live bet.

Here is the Meydan Entry, I know, I know, just like one of those thousands of tipsters out there, results AFTER the event!!!

Here's the results data sheet up to yesterday, so far so good in January ( I haven't re-based the data from last years yet) 

It's profit in, off racing mostly hardly worth watching, so the occasional Target Bet makes some interest for me until the better meetings come along.

1 Jan 2019

Dutch Frame - Profit distribution 2018 

Here is a breakdown of the overall 2018 profit as distributed across the Dutch Frame size.

 Dutch Frame Configuration:

• The first figure is the No: of runners in the race below the Pivot Price in the market at 12.5.

• The second figure is the number of runners included in the Dutch Frame. Generated off a min. Bk value of 82.5%

• e.g. 4_4 is a race with 4 runners below the 12.5 Pivot price and a total of 4 runners included in the Dutch Frame to achieve the required min. Bk value of 82.5%

You can quickly see that the Shape of Market filters applied keep a strike rate of > 90% across the whole range
The larger Dutch Frames of 5, 6 ,7 are more stable and can take on a larger percentage of them. Unfortunately they are thin on the ground compared with the smaller frames. Reduced field sizes across many N.H. and turf race types have shifted the balance over the years I have been dutching and more of these small Frames/field sizes have to be filtered out.

You could of course focus just on 5, 6 7 runner Frames, but you lose the velocity of turn over and this year take around 40% of the potential profit.

A lot of people like to Dutch 3 runners, its very commonly mentioned across the forums and literature.
But this chart shows how selective I need to be to maintain the strike rate on this size of Dutch bet - only around 36% of the selected races taken live.


Race Types: 
Profit Distribution across turf/ AW / NH.
  
Here is the breakdown of the overall 2018 profit sliced alternatively across the Race type selection on turf, AW and NH.

 

Many people are surprised by the return on Maiden Hurdle races which are generally given a bad reputation. Claiming races may raise an eyebrow too!

Novice chases have always had the highest fav. win + Uplift percentages. 
Unfortunately low field sizes limit how many of these can be played. The above figures are off a minimum field of 4 runners and many novices chases now cut even below this.

Group races are in for my entertainment. They contribute v little to the overall picture each year. I like to Target bet my opinions in the Dutch Frame. Usually having two or three runners with the profit and the others at break even.



If you cross add these charts you may find small discrepancies with the overall figures I put up yesterday. These are very minor and not worth the effort of grinding through the data base for glitches.






















A lot of people like to Dutch 3 runners, its very commonly mentioned across the forums and literature.
But this chart shows how selective I need to be to maintain the strike rate on this size of Dutch bet - only around 36% of the selected races taken live.