sunday 20 december

Dutch Lite Bets

Yesterday's results summary + today's cards

Yesterday I was at Ascot couldn't post Live. I wont be doing many more Live shows between now and New Year.
Will keep the results updated.



Afternoon potential Frames:

•  5no: potential frames off today's cards.

friday 18 december

Dutch Lite Bets

Yesterday's results summary + early races today



Afternoon potential Frames:

•  4no: potential frames off the earlier races

Update:

thursday 17 december

Dutch Lite Bets




Afternoon potential Frames:

•  6no: potential frames off the earlier races

*** The 13;30 Sthw is an additional Live Bet now with the 3 runner Dutch Frame***

Update @ 15;45 for later card:

Just the 1 no: extra frame on the update. If the return on the Dutch Frame falls below the minimum, take the Margin Bet if possible. Two runner frame - No Bet

Earlier there was a loss in the 15;20 Extr + a No Bet in the 14;20 race.

wednesday 16 december

Dutch Lite Bets

Some Results still to go in from yesterday.

Afternoon potential Frames:

Early results and Update:


Have included yesterday's later results in the update.
Yesterday's kemp 16;10 was a losing bet.  

• 4 no: ppotential Dutch Frames off the later races today. 

tuesday 15 december

Dutch Lite Bets



Afternoon potential Frames:

***12;45 Catterick is No Bet if the Return value remains > 85 (currently it ha moved to @ 95. So the market on the front 3 needs to tighten uup again before the off) If it drifts a lot more and a 4 runner frame becomes a live possibility this would remain a Live Bet.
 

 
Update for AW 14;45:

monday 14 december

Dutch Lite Bets



Afternoon potential Frames:

***13;20 Plumpton has tightened to a 3 runner Frame - remains a Live Bet***
*** Also 14;15 Nav down to a 2 runner Frame - remaining a Live Bet***

Update today @ 15;15:

No Bet in the earlier 12;25 race & a loss in the 13;10 
In the additional late frames the 14;15 is only Live if the return is 100 maximum or less. If it remains above the mark No Bet.

sunday 13 december

Dutch Lite Bets

Been a good run for me (42 win Frames since 4th Dec) crashed yesterday. Hopefully not a change of fortune?

Hot fav. US Navy Seal in the 14;50 Southwell runner maiden shot at right angles out of the centre stall - whacked his rival, jinked away  - and left George Baker on the floor. Looked painful too!
Only a 2 runner Dutch Frame so left with an on the nose bet to the second fav. who couldn't stay the trip, leaving outsider of the five to take it. Random Events - a fall on the flat after all those NH races come in!!

Saturday Results round-up

Sunday potential Dutch Frames

Update:
Couple "What If's" on the Update.

• The 14;05 Navan looks like falling below the 45 min. Return. If so the 3 runner frame is No Bet.
• The 14;55 Southwell is struggling for a fav. If the Fav. > 2.70 the race is No Bet.

 

saturday 12 december

Dutch Lite Bets

I've split the cards with an update in time for the Doncaster 14;05 today

Saturday potential Dutch Frames

• 3 no: early potential Frames currently. On the three runner frames it may be necessary to use the Margin Bet.

Here is the Margin Bet on the Chelt 12;05 - Outsider of the three runner Frame hedged down to break even to maintain a return - target @ 50+ on the fav. and 2nd fav.
 

Update:

• 3 no: early additional Frames off the afternoon cards. 
• The return on the 14;05 is currently @80 not the 45 shown in the screen shot.

friday 11 december

Dutch Lite Bets

I'll update any market moves changing Dutch Frames today.

Friday potential Dutch Frames

• 3 no: potential Frames currently

***In the 14;05 Bang Nov Hdle the 3 runner Frame has dropped below the minimum return. The reduced 2 runner Frame still qualifies as a Live Bet.***

***The 14;20 Cheltenham has tightened to a 7 no: runner Dutch Frame - this now meet  criteria and is an additional Live Bet***

Update for Late Meets:

So 2 no: potential Late frames.
In the 18;00 Dundalk maiden we need a stable Price Gap to identify the Dutch Frame. 
Also this Frame may tighten down to 5 runners near the off - this also remains a Live Bet (with the Price gap stable)
 

thursday 10 december

Dutch Lite Bets

I'll update any market moves changing Dutch Frames today.



Thursday potential Dutch Frames

• 12;20 Newc race has tightened hard below the minimum return and is No Bet
• 13;10 Taunt has moved now to a Live Bet - 2 runner Dutch frame  current return @86
• 13;25 Punch (first Hunter Chase of season) Is a No Bet. The 7 runner frame has gone & the 6 runner frame is not Price Gapped. 

Afternoon Results + Update:

Good fortune on the afternoon as the No bet outcome on the 12;20 avoided a losing race.
The outsider of the four took the race.

• Two additional on the Chelm City card.

wednesday 9 december

Dutch Lite Bets





The completely saturated ground is thinning out racing opportunities at the moment
Yesterday there were 6 no: listed races, all of which fell within the Dutch Frame criteria. Of these four met the Shape of Market filters ok and took as Live Bets.
Only the one NH race today at Leicester - surprised the river Trent hasn't swamped the course there?


Wednesday's  Pre-List + Tuesday Results

• No Live Update Today. Back Live cover tomorrow

Tuesday 8 december

Dutch Lite Bets


Tuesday's Pre-List + Monday Results

• No Live Update Today

 

monday 7 december

Dutch Lite Bets


Monday's Pre-List

• No Live Update Today

• Just the 3 no: races for consideration

sunday 6 december

Dutch Lite Bets


Sunday's List

5 no: potential frames listed - but 3 of them are subject to the Price Gap firming up nearer the race times.

***The 12;00 Kelso has dropped to 8 runners since the upload; Dutch Frame available is now 2 runners & remains a Live Bet -  BUT we can still get the Margin Bet on the 3 runner frame and this is my preference paying on the first two with a cover bet third in mkt*** 

So as the above race crystalized around ATO the market drifted back out and the full 3 runner frame became the available bet. When these markets move around the latest full information right on the off is what we should follow. As the race unfolded there were only the three runners competitive, then the favorite faded away and the 2nd in the market seemed to have it sewn up. Third in the market rallied in the last few yards and took it!

Weekend Results

 Sunday a bit hit and miss with one or two slow markets - this produced three additional bets ATO which the early listing missed out on.

The only solution I can offer for this at the moment is for those interested to use the Dutch Calc to check Bk Value and make a revised decision near the off.
On the plus side there were three losing Dutch Frames buried in the weekend , each of which the filters avoided, so no losses.
 Overall I have 9 early Live bets listed against the 14no: Live ATO bets

 

saturday 5 december

Dutch Lite Bets


Saturday's Pre-List

12 no: race list today

4 no: frames off early races

Update:

friday 4 december

Dutch Lite Bets


afternoon Potential Dutch Frames:

3 no: potential races to Frame up early

•  The 15;20 Exeter may well be Live nearer the off - I'll upload later.

15;20 Nov Chase did go down to a Live Bet ATO - but didn't manage an update for it.
2 no: additional -will have to wait until later markets get liquidity

Eveneing cards

Final 3 potential Frames & results

 

Thursday 3 december

Dutch Lite Bets

Another day of skinny cards after Clonmell abandoned.

Today's Potential Dutch Frames:

4 no: potential races left today for me.
The  Kemp 16;40 may form a live opportunity nearer the off if the outfield drifts.

The Kemp 16:40 market has hardened to a 3 runner frame.
Here is the Live feed with the clear indicator it is a Live Bet.
In the last 10 mins the return has been unfortunately shrinking rapidly from @ 75  down through 55. Screen shot at 7 mins to ATO

• In the final 3-4 mins even the 3 runner frame disappearing. Tremendous money on the fav. here Tailwind.

*** The Final Kemp 17;10 selection is also dropping down to a 6 runner frame. Same as before it remains a Live bet, subject to a Price gap opening up providing a stable Frame ***

wednesday 2 december

Dutch Lite Bets

Here is the ATO results summary to the end of November
I have posted all the monthly breakdowns in the RH sidebar

Today's afternoon selections  & Yesterday's results:

• 5 no: potential Dutch Frames
• Romain de Senam would have been a Target Bet today but doesn't achieve the 100 return uplift off the 2 runner frame.

Update for 17;00:

tuesday 1 december

Dutch Lite Bets

I was too late today to put up the earlier races.
Also posted YTD results summary.

The posted Lite selections are running @ 43.6% P/L of the full ATO selections. Not what I expected, I have some theories /not facts as to why the percentage is below par with the late crystallizing markets?

Today's Late selections  & Yesterday's / Early results: