monday 31 august

Dutch Lite Bets

  Today's potential Dutch Frames

19: races on the bank holiday pre-list amongst the dozens of low grade handicaps.
There's no standout for a Target Bet for me, despite the quantity of racing.
Yesterday there was just one race which changed from the posted format. The Bev 15;25 dropped to a 3 runner Dutch Frame. This remained a live bet for ATO bets.

Potential frames first 10 races

Out of the 10 -  5 no: Live

Update for 15;30

Quite a bit of market movement so far.
The 12;45 became a Live bet ATO. 
The 13;15 fav_Hedge bet is not available, so drops to the Standard 4 runner Frame Dutch Bet as per screen shot.
***The 3rd in betting not into stalls, so I adjusted and added Ambriel into the Frame. As it turned out no need as fav. takes race easily!***

Update for later races

sunday 30 august

Dutch Lite Bets

  Today's potential Dutch Frames

7 no: races potential Live Bets today.
Group races are eliminated and no Target Bet for me.

• Where the bets are marked up fav_Hedge bet this is first preference. If the dutch frame will not match with the bet, but will using the standard Dutch Bet then replace with the standard.

I will post sample Live bets near the off today.

saturday 29 august

Dutch Lite Bets

  Today's Pre-List

Pre-list 17 no: races 
Have dropped 3 no: Group races on bottom I will be looking at.
Also in Bev 17;10 Langlauf is Today's additional Target Bet.

Just the 3 races live off the afternoon cards.

 In the first of the Group races we have 20 of 21 cover on the 21yr race trend with a 7 runner Dutch Frame. I am Targeting 3 of the frame for a return @100

In the second Group race we have a 3 runner Dutch Frame meeting the 90%+ Race Trend 
I am Targeting s we have 20 of 21 cover on the 21yr race trend with a 7 runner Dutch Frame. I am Targeting fav Kodi Bear to take it .

Evening cards update

• 4 no: potential Dutch Frames off the evening cards

Additional Target Bet in 17;10 Bev

• fav. Langlauf @  110 return

friday 28 august

Dutch Lite Bets

No Live Updates today. On the road.
Yesterdays Results + Today's Pre-List

There were 3 no:  No Bets from yesterdays pre-list

• 14;50 Sthw - The return dropped below the min 45 target. I actually took it early and got matched, but No Bet nearer the off.

• 17;00 Sedg - The 3 runner Dutch Frame posted reduced toa potential 2 runner Frame. Yesterdays post went thro' this race and how to reassess.
• 21;15 Wolv - Turned out to be a re-run of the 3 runner posted frame dropping to potential 2 runner frame. Same again live bet on 2 runners ok.

Out of  todays 15 race pre-list  4 no: races are eliminated, as best afvoided. Most likely they would all get caught later by filtters.

thursday 27 august

Dutch Lite Bets



Yesterdays Results + Today's Pre-List

Target Bet:
14;10 Stratford maiden h'dle
I am taking the 217 return on the 2 runner Dutch Frame. Second in market was a decent listed flat horse but hope mine will hold him today.  

Afternoon Cards:
14;00 Muss - have left in, but v unlikely the price Gap will be there to support the 5 runner Dutch Frame.
***With 5 mins to off we can now get the 5 runner frame with a 1.5pt+ Price Gap. Must be about worst maiden of the year this?***
Here is the 5 runner Frame with standard Dutch Bet in 6 runner race. Hard to drift or go fav. in this field of bottom class 6'rs; Still we have 360k matched!!!

14;10 Strat  -  good untroubled additional Target Bet with Low Key going in by 19L. I was tempted to go over to Stratford and get into this one today, just occasionally these Target Bets throw one worth emptying the satchel on without fear.
14;50 Southwell - No Bet. Value taken out of 4 runner frame below min. 45 return. The reduced 3 runner frame is also no bet with no Price Gap. I matched the 4 runner frame early, so on board with that.
15;50 Sthwl - Bet has to change to the standard Dutch bet from the posted fav_Hedge bet in order to get a match on the 4 runner Dutch Frame. Return @ 47. ***Needed that 4th in the market in the frame - he wins. 
16;15 Belle - No change 2 runner frame with 3 runners below the 12.5 pivot price, the other 3 of the 6 runners way outside the envelope. 

3 no: additional potential Frames off evening cards + afternoon results. Good afternoon for me with 5no: win bets (4 no: included in Lite bets) & win Target Bet

Bridge the Gap: Race Analysis 17;00 Sedgfield.

The market in this race tightened up nearer to the off and the 3 runner Dutch Frame posted up is cancelled out - the return well below the 45 minimum value.

Obviously I can't provide updates for all market changes.

Question: Is the reduced 2 runner Dutch Frame still a Live Bet?

I run the revised figures through the spreadsheet to answer this question for myself. It still meets the filter requirements and I can take the new market on.
In 90% of theses situations you can use the Book Value IP chart to get the correct decision 

Here is the Bookvalue graph just before the off.(next chart 17;00 Sedgfield)
I have marked up the axis on the 0.825 value. This is the threshold value on the IP chart.
The main zone is for the Dutch Frame Book Value in the range 82.5 - 91.
(see IP chart)
This isn't exactly as the filters I use which do vary by race type, but its a very good average match.

We can see the BookValue on the 1st & 2nd fav. has now punched through this 0.825 value and indicates that the Bet is Good to take.
If you refer back to the IP chart and check across the 82.5 equates to a return of 102 on the bet.
Obviously cross referencing charts is not useful just before the off in a race?
Instead we just need to check the return on the re-formed 2 runner Frame bet.
If the return is BELOW the @ 100 figure the bet will have remained live unless other filters have been changed.

Additional check:
Put the new Dutch Bet into betting platform and check the return available

• The Price Gap is ok on the Dutch Frame?
• The number of runners hasn't been the cause? (late withdrawal?)

So here are the prices just before the off plugged in to the new 2 runner frame.

The return is 81 on the revised fav + 2nd  fav. Dutch Frame  - well below the 100  max and the bet is live.
On 90% of these situations this one check will put you onto the correct decision.

In the results you can see the revised figures for the 2 runner Dutch Frame in the spread (columns Q to Z)
On the right is the win result on the 2 runner frame taken ATO
In the Lite columns we have the 3 runner Dutch Frame with no return.
By following the above simple process when necessary you can close the gap between ATO full returns and the Lite bets listed.

wednesday 26 august

Dutch Lite Bets


Worst Market Manipulators PP to be joined at the hip with Betfair?  - Not a Good News Day!


Afternoon Cards:
4 no: potential Dutch Frames.

• The first two races may require the 4th/5th runner hedged down to break even to maintain the minimum 45 return. This is the correct bet if it can be matched.

Late cards update

tuesday 25 august

Dutch Lite Bets

Yesterday all 3 no: listed bets on the evening card cancelled either thro' lost Price Gap or Reduced Dutch Frame size.
So small profit on the day.

Early Target Bet
I have taken the fav. Rosamaria in the Chepstow 14;30 as an early bet. I manged 102 for part of the bet + 98 return for balance. At the moment the return has dropped towards 80 form the 92 in screen shot, but prob. recover with higher liquidity later.

Standard 3 runner Dutch Frame for this race is @ 60 current.
(as finished typing Rosamaria recovered >100 return)

Afternoon cards

3 no: potential Dutch Frames.

• 14;00 Chep - need to drop to standard Dutch Bet to get the 5 runner Frame in this one. 
• Price Gaps tight on these need checking near the off? I will leave the 14;30  Rosamaria Target Bet on even if the price gap drops below limit. Hoping she can handle that infamous Chepstow soft going?

*** In the 14;00 race the 5 runner frame dried up @10mins before the off. A revised 4 runner Dutch Frame remains ok as a Live bet in this race at @85 return***
***In the 14;30 race the Price gap has been lost with the next 3 in the market all close priced now, due to a bit of money for Prescott's Miss Marina Bay. I will left my bets in place & Target Bet on the record. Price Gap ATO 1.7pts.(5.3-7.0)***As it turned out the newcomer 2nd fav. was far better than the rated horses- obviously been waiting for the soft going and cruised it. So Target Bet down in second, but no losses and standard Dutch Bet in.
***15;15 Brighton - No Bet - market collapsed & long delay on start.***

Update

Here is a graphic of the 16;25 Ballin Maiden Hurdle market by volume. Book Value & Bet size across the top.
We can stretch to a 4 runner Dutch Frame with a Book value of 87.6% in the right zone on the BV chart posted once or twice.   Return on the standard Dutch bet for the frame is 68. The fav_Hedge bet only covers the 3 runner frame so preference goes to the 4 runner standard bet.
I think the graphic is clear that the 3 runner frame is a match but the 4 runner frame is safety?

 The first 3 in the market fought out the finish with the fav. winning. So no surprises and the market accurately shows the size of Dutch Frame to match it. The finishing order market 1- 4 - 2 -3 So good thing for the Frame to stretch to that 4th in the market?
  Let the market tell the number of runners to be included in the Variable Dutch Frame

Here is a reminder of the IP chart 
for the Dutch ratio on the bet of 4.85

The same info for the 16;25 race where the Dutch Frame is comfortably in the mid chart zone. On the chart 87.6% in LH column @ 68 return and a yield of 14%





Last races 1 no: additional

monday 24 august

Dutch Lite Bets

Weekend results produced a bad knock with 3 no: losing bets.
Need to recover those loses!

Afternoon Cards
Just the 3 no: potential Dutch Frames.

Update:

These 3 evening bets are still moving markets. The 17;25 is a straight Dutch only now with the 7 runner frame. near the off No Bet -several runners bunched up with no clear price gap.

sunday 23 august

Dutch Lite Bets




Pre-list

Only a few on the sunday cards. At the Curragh have to leave the Group races alone.
Two losses on yesterdays results. Ouch! 
But on the Group race results covered this summer no losses so far on those put up, including 9 across the Royal Ascot week. They're good side bets along with the Target Bets when they're available.

 

saturday 22 august

Dutch Lite Bets


Pre-list

Terrific spread of quality racing this afternoon? Just swerving all those handicaps is a good start.
I need to keep calm on days like this and remember I'm trying to do steady business not over-rate my preferences on a great days cards

In total 6 group races but only the two York races have the race specific trend long enough to cover. No other Target bets for me today so I will follow the York big races.

We nee the 7 runner Dutch Frame in the 14;00 Grp 3  & also the 7 runner Dutch Frame cover in the 15;10 Gimcrack. I'm Targeting the Buratino / Finnegan combo. Think Buratino has the rest of the field covered. In the 14;00 I will build my target bet around Top Notch Tonto, probably target 4 of the 7 runner frame.


Afternoon Cards

friday 21 august

Dutch Lite Bets

Afternoon Cards


There are some wild events on the afternoon cards?
3 potential Dutch Frames available, including the 15;05 listed race with a 10 runner frame, I will be doing some Targeting within the 10 covered.

Target Bets - Group Races

The two York Grp races are both 100% cover on the 21 year race trends. Picking the winner of the Nunthorpe is pretty well impossible - but he should be buried somewhere in that large 11 runner Dutch Frame we have available.

I'll Target the top few on my numbers and take my chances.

 Got two good bonuses from the Group races but let down by the lowly 6 runner maiden hurdle at Bangor! 

In the Nunthorpe Grp1 dash Andy Holden put up 2 runners Meccas Angel 1pt. win @ 8/1 (1st) +  Mattmu 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 (3rd)  In his new column free on the Oddschecker site. If you ever want on the nose selections to follow don't ever pay any of the Hustlers and fraudsters whilst this guy gives his advice free. Good / Best as you'll get.

 Evening update
Early races are all ruled out
Update; 3 no: additional Dutch Frames off the evening cards

****Please note the 18;10 Kilbegan maiden has eased out to a 4 runner Dutch Frame - return @ 51

thursday 20 august

Dutch Lite Bets

Afternoon Cards
just 2 potential Dutch Frames.

14;10 Chepstow - ATO can still just clear the 3 runner Dutch Frame.

***14;20 Stratford - weight this 2 runner frame to the fav. Leoncavallo  would have been an additional Target Bet if the market had enough profit in it.***

Target Bets - Group Races
I'm taking 4 in the 7 runner Dutch Frame available in todays York 15;40 Grp1 race. meets all the criteria although very open looking?

Evening update @ 17;00

My targeting of runners in the 15;40 went astray - but no loses. Or managed to follow my opinion on the race without actually losing money!

Small field on the evening cards rule out a few and those listed need to be checked on Price Gap etc near the race time.

• 3 no: additional Frames I will look at of the evening cards.

(you can see from screen shot there was just 1 additional Live bet ATO this afternoon as the 16;20 York listed race market lined up)

wednesday 19 august Variable Dutch Frame

Variable Dutch Frame


Firstly using the ten year stats. we identify the race selection - the second step is how to establish the correct Dutch Frame in any particular race. 
Race selection is 90% of the way there but there is a huge problem left before we can generate a profit long term.
Question: How many runners to dutch in any particular race?
There are many many Dutching betting methods which have appeared over the years, almost always with insufficient proof of results. You need to see a sample of 1000-1500 results to verify a possible long term edge even when you are covering several runners in the field at a very low odds equivalent. The Dutching methods out there nearly all fail because they use 'static' methods of race analysis; cover 3 runners, select races with max 'X' runners, two runners below price 'Y' etc.
And where does this leave tipsters providing a few months past results on single selections at long odds? A few months doesn't hack it you need large samples to verify a small edge and the numbers escalate v. significantly with increased odds.
Using the ten year stats for the race selection even the low frequency races such as non H'cap chases are off sample sizes of 1500.

The principle I used to answer the How Many question?

Let the Shape of the Market tell you how many runners to include.

Once you place a number of Dutch bets it becomes clear that the 'shape' each market develops is complex. Some races with a large field would have say just two runners in contention with the remainder at long prices through every imaginable combination out to races where every runner is in contention and there is no clear low priced favorite? Finally at the opposite extreme races where the fav. is so short its not possible to place a Dutch bet (and a percentage of these v.short favs. still get beaten sufficient to generate a loss backing them)


So there are two strands which follow on to arrive at a market 'tell' 

• Firstly establishing a Dutch Ratio. The return on the bet  as a ratio of the total stake. This drives the basic Dutch Frame size for each race.
• Second to develop a series of filters which respond to the Shape of the market. These are not filters in the sense of eliminating race types, past form, going, number of runner, etc. They are probability limits for each frame size and race type combination.

Dutch Ratio:

The total stake figure I publish is 485 returning a win of 100 (with the fav. hedged in larger frames)

The origin for this was checking through a series of large samples of races by trial and error to establish the largest Dutch frames that could sensibly be achieved. In a large number of the races there is a tipping point at which the addition of one extra runner into the dutch bet produces a huge hike in the stake size.
A spin off from this process is a zone for the Book Value represented by the dutch Bet, the largest Dutch Frame achievable usually falling with in a range.
This makes sense after the trial and error checking and with the benefit of hind sight using Book Value to generate the dutch frame size would have been the more methodical approach.

The end product? 
by establishing:-

1. The average Dutch frame size achievable 
2. The average Betfair price returned off the samples.

Basically I found the dutch frame averaging just short of 4 runners & the betfair price return averaging just above 5.0
A simple piece of arithmetic covering 4 runners at the average price less betfair deduction came out at 485/486.
Its hardly a formula just a starting point but I found no reason to vary it and it seems a 'fit' with all the varying markets which are thrown up.

 Shape of the Market Filters:

On the screen shots I put up usually they include 10 columns on the RH side which together with the Uplift value for the race type feed into a series of filters.

How to put a Shape of the Market concept together?

Most people would accept that a 3 runner Dutch bet with jt. favs. @ say 3.5 and then a bunch of other runners 13.0 -16.0 zone is entirely different to one where the fav. is 1.4 and the two others within the Dutch market are 9.0 & 10.0 followed by a sizeable gap to the next in the market?

Any market is dominated by the favorite price.

So the full market I split into the following segments.

• Price of the favorite and its ratio to the price at the outside of the dutch frame.
• Number of runners below a 'Pivot' price of 12.5 A fixed balance point in the market for all field sizes.
• Number of live contenders within a 'field envelope' A varying top price related to the number of runners in the race. Starting at 40.0 for large fields & graded down to 30.0 for 5 runners and less.
• Finally excluded runners outside the field envelope - supposedly (but unfortunately not always) outside contention to win the race.

There are no absolutes in bringing the factors together. A market with a large field of runners totally dominated by a short price favorite obviously has plenty of opportunities to go wrong. Conversely there is little direct cause and effect due to the size of the Price Gap between the Dutch Frame and the Next runner in the market. The idea is to set limits for each race type and dutch frame combo outside which the probabilities are falling away.


Not by coincidence of timing! here are the Live Sample YTD figures for 1507 Dutch Frames using the above.

Strike rate is on cue, the 3.8% edge is at the bottom end of my target range. Its quite straight forward to tighten up the filters slightly and improve the edge but only by sacrificing volume of bets. That meets any statistical litmus test for a 99%+ certainty of a genuine edge over the market. 

wednesday19 august

Dutch Lite Bets

Target Bets - Group Races
Nothing up today for me as a potential Target Bet. There are 3 good Grp. races on the first day at York and Golden Horn out in the Juddmonte to put his reputation on the line, but non of the Grp. races meet the race trend criteria I run these through. Good luck to him and hope to see a great race but the reason Dutching is my chosen method is that in racing (or any other betting you can find) I accept that -
      Opinions are high Volatility. 
Take a look at the William Hill Naps Table. Its treated very competitively with well known pundits, a bunch of so called pro tipsters, trainers, ex jockeys, a paddock expert?, and one or two pro gamblers. Since the end of April season start just TWO of the twenty one are in profit. Some of these guys I do respect, certainly more than the '00s of tipsters who bung trumped up short term unsubstantiated claims thro' the email box.

So have to just watch and enjoy the great racing and hope to churn a days profit off the minor events. 
Sometimes little fish are sweeter!


Afternoon Cards
Just the 2 no: potential Frames of the early cards

***In the reformed market on the 14;20 Carlisle. The reduced 2 runner Dutch Frame is a live bet - return @ 65***

Evening update
Quite an upset at York this afternoon outsider of the lot other than pacemaker takes the Grp 1 !

4 no: potential dutch frames 

tuesday 18 august

Dutch Lite Bets

Afternoon Cards
The 4 potential bets for the afternoon may fall by the wayside. All depend on the Price Gap firming up. 
Also the 15;15 kemp needs the 4th in frame hedged down to break even to return 51 at the moment. (nxt in betting @ 34.0)

Taking a look at the 14;30 race near the off. 
There is no Price Gap near the off - so a No Bet. This is the sort of race where I would play at a low price gap (below the 2pts I post up on the blog) so long as its stable -  with only 1 runner additional at a competitive price. But on this occasion its No Bet all round.

In the 14;45 Kemp race the market firms up and a clear Price Gap near the off 7.4 - 13.5 leaving the 3 runner Dtch Frame with a payoff @ 80.

Onto 15;15 Market ok near the off with clear 4 runner frame and return @ 56-58.

15;30 Stakes at Ripon down to 4no: runners and No Bet - so that's it until evening cards. Two out of the Four potential listed provide Live Bets.

Evening cards update  @ 18;30
No Bets on the earlier Sligo races.
4 potential dutch frames
+ Target Bet to 19;50 

***In the 19;50 near the off we can just about squeeze the 45 return (hedge the 4th in market to break even) so will keep it as a Live Bet.
The additional Target bet on the fav. has lost a chunk of value now, needed matching earlier.

monday 17 august

Dutch Lite Bets

Target Bet:
I'm taking a Target Bet early again today as the return is drying up from the available early prices. Obviously with the late race time there's plenty of opportunity for more market moves. If these are negative I will cancel the bet out later.

• 18;55 Chelm  - 3 runner Dutch Frame -  86 still available on Target weighting to fav. Dark Profit.

Afternoon potential Dutch Frames:
Only the 1 to look at off the afternoon cards

• 14;10 Thirsk - 4 runner Dutch Frame - use fav_Hedge bet if available

Evening cards update @ 17;00
5 no: potential dutch frames off the evening cards.

sunday 16 august

Dutch Lite Bets

Afternoon potential Dutch Frames:
I'm taking 1 early Target bet today on Dubai Prince in the 14;00 Novice chase.
Only 4 runners - 2 runner Dutch Frame - 100 available on Target weighting.

6 no: Potential Dutch Frames today's cards.

• 14;00 Southwell - 2 runner dutch frame. The Target bet @100 return still available. Grp 3 winner off turf in Southwell novice chase? 
• 14;10 Dund - 3 runner Dutch frame with wide Price Gap . Return near off @90-95
• 14;20 Tram - 5 runner Dutch Frame. Price Gap has crystallized towards the off (8-14.5) -  take the fav_Hedge bet with fav @ 15.