Dutch Shape of the Market
Goodwood Festival
I didn't put up the Frame for the Gp1 Nasseu stakes today . It produced a 2 runner Dutch frame to bet but Its almost an insult to 'Minding' to dutch the race. I think the first filly for many many years to take the race?
H
ere are the 13 no: group races from the week at Goodwood. I was able to lay 9 of the 13 group events. One of the eliminate races would have been a losing Dutch bet.
If you check back the stats the Book Value on this losing 5 runner Group 2 was 80.3% on the 2 runner Dutch Frame. Eliminated below the 82,5% threshold. The 3 runner frame was not achievable below the minimum return, the third in the market took the race.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
The main Gp2 race at Goodwood today is a very open market where the Dutch Frame stretches to 10 runners.
Screen shot shows the standard margin bet , but targeting a few of the runners in the frame increases this.
Favorite @ 6.42 representing only 15% of the book. Anyones race?
In the screen shot I've circled the 9 and 10 runners at the back of the frame. You can see the 9 runners hit the 82.5 Book minimum - but in these Group races I like to cover the max. Frame possible, so take the 10 runner frame.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
The earlier Gp2 race at Goodwood today is a 2 runner Dutch Frame 'No Bet'
here is the 'Frame for the Goodwood Cup 15;10 race
we have an 8no: runner Dutch frame to work with. Some Targeting amongst the eight for a better return?
The seventh in the market is just scraping the 82.5 Bk line. The 8 no: frame covers 88.6 Book and we should have the winner in there!
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
Goodwoods Gp1 Sussex stakes looks red hot to me, I couldn't make a selection on the nose.
Screen shot shows the available 5 runner Dutch frame - i've taken the Margin bet format. i.e. the 5th Runner in the frame is a cover bet at break-even
You can see from the circled graphic the 4 runners clip the 82.5% book value threshold. In group races we definately need to default to the largest achievable frame - so I take the 5 runner dutch.
On the race trend this covers the winners price over 15 of the 16 recorded races since 2000.
So I've no idea what will win but have 90% book value on the Dutch Frame - confident a couple from my frame will be fighting it out?
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
Here are the Shape of Market graphic to show how different these markets are.
In the Group 1 Ascot 16;30 I've put the equal 4 runner Dutch Frame figures up. In the 7 runner field we have 4 in the frame @ 65 return. Book value 88.2
In the York Group2 15;35 I've put the fav Target Bet Return up @60. We have a 3 runner Dutch frame in the 5 runner field. Book value on the Frame is 90.9
The third Group race at 14;45 is a 'No Bet' race I've put it up to show the difference in the Market. We have a one horse fav. dominated market. Although we can cover it with 6 other runners in the Dutch Frame, it should be clear these 6 in the market are not significantly better placed than the remainder to win - if the favorite slips up? So even though the Dutch book is 86.5 this race fails the Shape of Market filters.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Irish Oaks Gp1
We can cover a 6 runner Dutch Frame in the Group1 at the Curragh
There is only an 8yr record available for the race with a longest priced winner at 10/1.
If you consider O'briens Royal Ascot winner a shoe in - can still Target it at 100 return as per the screen shot.
If you prefer to target 3 runners there is at least 75 return, depending on your selections.
Dutch Shape of the Market
July Results.
I've had a pretty good start to July Took
2 no: Losing bets yesterday though.
So over the eight days my profit is £1,623 with a total 5 no: losses off 73 bets placed.
When it seems a bit of a grind making the money I just think about the garbage continually arriving in my mail box. It seems worse than ever at the moment?
Today's Live Bets.
There's plenty of racing today! The going is good or better everywhere except Chester. Plenty of maiden races to cover. After a poor return earlier in the season these have got back now to the normal strike rate.
Here are the 19 potential race selections for the day.
If you use Gruss software you should be able to set up the quick pick list identifying them and export them to spreadsheet. It's easy enough?
Three Group races - I will probably end up taking on all three of them, but currently the favorities in the Ascot 15;15 Grp2 & the Newmarket 16;35 Grp1 are not tight enough Expect these markets will both firm up later on.
Lets look at the Newmarket 16;00 Grp 2 . There's a firm FTO fav, from O'brien and we have a Dutch Frame available covering 6 of the 10 runners. I will be Targeting the top 3 in the betting with a return currently @ 80.
A quick check on the race history (Courtesy Sporting life stats)
There's been only 1 winner (perhaps just 2?) outside my dutch frame in the 22 years winner trend. That's good enough for me! Mick Channon managed to get the outsider of a field of just 7 runners @33/1 in 2006 on good to firm, no excuses. It happens!
First 6 Month 2016 Update
I'm somewhat off the 35k Target at the end of the first 6 months of this year with a P/L figure around 14k.
I did manage to add 3k+ of additional target bets.
There have been two changes to the markets this year which I consider have affected results.
First a continuing reduction in field sizes; This has negative effects on the number of races that can be selected + reduces the proportion of bets that can be covered with the fav-hedge format returning 100 on wins.
Secondly the switch around this season from Maidens over to Nov Stakes framed races. I haven't analyzed this on the AW yet or adjusted AW selections. On the turf I took in the Nov stakes races and for whatever reason their has been a dramatic downside on returns from Maiden races whilst the stakes category boasted some good profits?
Here are the spreadsheet figures on the 30 June
You can see there were 5 or 6 sharp drawdowns to bet through off the 6 month chart.
The heaviest is marked up over the 4 days in April with a Loss @ 3,300. Its essential to take the Risk of Ruin bankroll figures I put up seriously.
The chart at the end of June flat-lined - almost certainly going related and there were one or two days during which there were rapid changes in going between morning and race time. A wiser punter would have swerved them??
The following is a quick analysis of the returns by each type of race used in the selections.
Three or Four notes:
- A really poor 6 months off Novice Hurdles were the reduced fields killed off profits.
- The AW does not include the Nov stakes races into the selections so far this year.
- The return on turf Maidens is exceptionally low compared to the prior 10 year rolling stats. (conversely the AW Maidens played out very well over the summer months?)
- 6 months is far too short to consider any adjustments to race types selected and filters. Maiden hurdles as an example have delivered strongly after a poor period during 2015.
Looking for the second half of the year to get me back on track for the 35k Target? A few less serious draw-downs if I'm lucky?
Its tough when they happen, but trying to make money on Betfair is tough full stop. There's a lot more talk than reality on the subject?
Using the long term stats on race selection and then checking each Market is within statistical boundaries (filters) are the only sure way I know to maintain confidence in a long term edge.
'Know your Edge' and stay well into comfort zone on bankroll units.
