Thursday 30 april

Todays Dutch Bets

Afternoon 6 no: Dutch frames
2 are marginal on return. 
In the 14;05 reduce the 4th in the market to a break even return
In the 17;15 Target profit onto the fav. Vicente with second in market left break even.

Update for evening meets.

Wednesday 29 april

Yesterday

The losing bet with a 3 runner Dutch frame in the 18;30 maiden had moved to a 4 runner (win) frame on BFsp returns. I don't now if this move happened just before the off as I had taken the bet early and wasn't watching live.
Sometimes you just get caught out, damn it! But the market is never fully crystallized until the off?

Here is the Bfsp delivering 91.9% book value on 4 runner frame.

Below is the Book value chart I refer to on the early bet selection. You can see the above return is right on the limits of the 'sweet zone'.
This is a core chart if you are digging around to identify the best opportunities once you have followed the basic race selection I have posted. It guides you exactly on how to use a variable size dutch frame matched into each market.

Just combining this chart with basic race selection is enough for anyone to gain an edge Dutching. In fact your return would almost certainly be higher than I achieve. 
My Shape of the Market filters are targeted to control volatility, statistically within each type of market frame  - often at the cost of some return reduction over time. Volatility is what wipes out >98% not a slightly lower edge.



Todays Dutch Bets

4 no: Dutch frames early
skip the Grade 1 novice hurdle at Punchestown 16;55

Update for late meets:

tuesday 28 april

Todays Dutch Bets

Punchestown festival card I have taken 2 no: Targeted bets early.
Dutch profit weighted to favorites.

• 15;40 Punch - 7 runner frame (weighted to fav' Wish ye didnt return is currently 97.9 with 6 in frame break even)
• 18;40 Punch  - 3 runner frame (weighted to Don Poli currently 73.4 with 2 in frame break even)

update added 14;15 Nott   -  4 runner frame.

Update to evening meets

monday 27 april

Todays Dutch Bets

AP retired and not an NH race in sight! Must really be the start of the flat season.

Afternoon just the 2  no: Early bets.
Plenty of evening action.

Evening update Early Dutch Frames added

Sunday 26 april

Todays Dutch Bets

Afternoon 5 no: Early bets

Sturday

Todays Dutch Bets

HAVING TROUBLE WITH UPLOAD FROM HERE.

Afternoon 7 no: Early bets
The 17;35 at Sandown isn't listed at moment but I want to target Polly Peachum in Dutching this race later. It should crystalise into a 3 no: runner dutch frame weighted onto Polly Peachum -she's class in this race.

Update for evening meets
17;35 great opportunity for targeted bet Standard Dutch 126.85; Targeted to Polly Peachum 341.61 return.

Friday 24 april

Todays Dutch Bets

Here is pre-list for todays selected races.

Quiet day but there's only one show in town for the next 24 hrs.

• http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=7848124&category=0

Nothing live until 16;10 Sandown.

Upload   @ 15;00  2 no: Dutch Frames

Update for evening   - Just 1 no: frame Early; Liquidity to low on the other races, some only @ 3k currently matched.

Thursday 23 april

Todays Dutch Bets

I am going to start noting up Targeted Bets I make from time to time.
These will only be with the profit fully weighted to the favorite.

Here is an example today in the 15;40 Mercers Court. I was considering to take him as a separate win bet in this race, dropped from a Grade 3 H'cp Hurdle to this maiden.

(you can see in the screen shot I actually ended up with a small loss on Wings Attract - he moved in to 11.0 as the bet settled)

I wont include these in the running P/L. Obviously anyone who has a strong opinion on  a race can variable dutch the profit to their preference. Don't listen to me, if you think you can better the straight dutching with race knowledge or there is one particular horse you want to shout home, there's nothing lost. 


Afternoon Upload 5 no: dutch frames

Eve Update @ 17;30

Wednesday 22 april

Todays Dutch Bets


1 no: evening meet update

5 No: Dutch frames selected Early Bets for today

Tuesday 21 april

Todays Dutch Bets


5 No: Dutch frames selected Early Bets for today

Brighton Update @ 16;00
No further bets at Brighton meet.

Monday 20 april

Todays Dutch Bets


7 no: Early Dutch frames for afternoon meets.

Update for evening below - 3 additional dutch frames.

Sunday 19 april

Todays Dutch Bets



5 No: Early Dutch Frames for today

• 14;10 Wincanton  -  4 runner frame
• 14;50 Curragh     -  7 runner frame
• 16;30 Stratford   -   4 runner frame
• 17;00 Stratford    -  2 runn er frame
• 17;20 Curragh     -  6 runner frame

Saturday 18 april

Todays Dutch Bets



Three Early Bets on the afternoon cards.
After the two early races there's a whole bunch of competitive maidens - I may take one or two of these on ATO? 

13;50 Bangor         -  3 runner frame
14;45 Thirsk          -  3 runner frame
17;25 Nottingham  - 3 runner frame

Update @  20;30 for the Wolverhampton maiden

Wolverhampton 20;10

Friday

Yesterday Summary:

The 14;55 Nmkt Millions Stakes I have chalked up a loss. Aiden O'briens Cape Clear Island was one of the runners included in the Early dutch frame, so if you did nothing you won! But I take all results as per the adjusted situation at ATO. 

Inexplicably O'briens runner drifted out to 16's not something we'll see too often in the season. Weird because Joseph won earlier in Ireland with some ease on my targeted horse The Happy Prince - despite the horse bolting off at right angles with less than a furlong to go!

The actual ATO position on the 14;55 Nmkt was that the dutch frame had turned to a No Bet - but too late for this blog.
So pretty harsh really but I want the P/L to be the rock bottom position that represents a return anyone could achieve and better with a little effort.

We have to take on board the Early bet markets are only tested so far in the winter season (and the later part of last years turf before posting) The profit record goes back now 10 years or so for my ATO bets but the Early bet experiment is in its infancy.

Todays Dutch Bets

A host of selected races!

• Afternoon 5 no: Early bets

Update;  No additional evening meet bets

Thursday 16 april

Todays Dutch Bets

A day for survival instincts on the turf?

• 5 no: Early dutch frames.

(The 14;50 3 runner frame I have weighted profit onto the fav. The Happy Prince. But will report on the 60.14 return standard dutch. That's as near a fav. as I dare go today!)

No Update for Chelmford 

Wednesday 15 april

Todays Dutch Bets

Flat racing kicks in with a number of potential races today.
The 14;05 Chelt is marked up early because i took bets with stakes varied and profits targeted onto the fav. Might Bite - first thing. I just like the look of him today with his last race and previous effort around Newbury, although they were both on softer going? 
I'll put the result up though against the 66 return level bet. The targeted fav. bet is 110 return.

I just run the results through the start of the seasons. As far as taking breaks while the season settles, I just don't know when to stop  and start the breaks? 

Some people say that Newmarket Craven week is real start of the turf. But its a dreadful difficult meeting with all those conniving stables just a few hundred yards up the road! So I wouldn't suggest the Craven days as a good starting point!

I just go steady with stakes at the start of the season but run through. There have been 3 losing turf maiden dutch bets so far, so not great start this year.


8 no: Early Dutch Frames 

• Might Bite had a fight on his hands at Cheltenham but got there from an outsider. The Dutch back up team were 20 lengths back!!! 

No Kempton update

Tuesday 14 april

Todays Dutch Frames.

Three early bets for today

• 15;45 Carlisle       -  2 runner frame
• 15;55 Southwell  - 4 runner frame
• 17;00 Southwell  - 2 runner frame.

Monday 13 april

Upload @ 13;00

Betfair crash and burn day again!

I pity all those early Back to Lay guys!!!


Betfair claiming today its a result of deliberate third party attack - but don't worry funds are safe.

We are experiencing site performance issues as a result of a deliberate attempt by a third party to interrupt our service. 
This is typically referred to as a DDOS (Distributed Denial of Service) attack. 
This issue has no impact on your funds, account, any open bets or your information. 
Our technical teams are working to fix this issue.

Will try to upload later if the site recovers. Not even a help line message at the moment.

Betfair still goosed.

Give up for the day.

Try again tomorrow.

As the CEO's ex Paddy Power perhaps there's a Mole right at the top Tinker!

If you look at the board of betfair there's a ton of expertise from PLC profit squeezers but zilch in computing?

Sunday 12 april Update

Todays Dutch bets

The ways racing finds to beat you are sometimes inexplicable and very frustrating!
In the Newc 13;40 maiden I dutched - the fav. stumbled and unshipped her jockey soon after start on perfectly good going. Then over on second fav. who could have been driven out to win Hannigan drops his whip after first tapping her, so then she thinks its all over, hands and heels in second!

The Grand National bet was more exiting than I wanted, the third home Monbeg Dude wasn't even included in my 20 runner dutch frame! Fortunately he never got to the front two.
Also a mention to Ian Welch at Informracing.com who had winner Many Clouds clear top rated on his excellent Speed Ratings.  Ian even gives one daily meeting out free of charge, good guy.


Upload @ 13;30 today

Betfair down again lock stock and barrel -with no advice how long.

What a shambolic outfit they are, you wouldn't think they are a massive PLC with their level of reliability. 

We’re really sorry, but we’re still having problems with our site. We’re on red alert and working as quick as we can. Apologies again.

Tells you nothing unless you know what red alert means? Are they under attack? 

Saturday 11 april

Todays Dutch bets

6 Early bets for afternoon meets.
Update @ 18;00 Wolverhampton.

That Puisque tu Pars managing to trip over the second out left me stricken yesterday. Ouch, the one thing I didn't expect was for that favorite to fall! 

Every year to join in the fun I like to dutch the Grand National.
It covers me all 20 runners below 60.0 (you will see I have hedged Rocky Creek & Balthazaar King to break even. Just couldn't hedge McCoy on his last outing.
Good luck to him and the whole field.

Friday 10 april

Todays Dutch bets

Only the one Early Bet

• 14;50 Aintree   -  6 runner frame

Update @ 17;00 eve. races.


I took my maximum stake on the 13;55 Fontwell early this morning in a 2 runner frame weighted towards the fav. Puisque tu Pars. But the prices are now driven right down and its not playable

Thursday 9 april

Todays Dutch bets

Three Early Dutch Bets

• 14;05 Southwell  -  3 runner frame
• 14;40 Southwell  -  4 runner frame
• 16;15 Taunton    -  5 runner frame

Update @ 17;00-17;30 for the 2 late races.



There are three additional G.1. Aintree races which are playable with small fields.
But best to resist and leave them out. 

One additional bet at the Tipperary meeting 17;45

Wednesday 8th april

Todays Dutch bets

Managed to talk myself into a losing bet in that Pontefract maiden yesterday!
Fortunately no Early Bets qualify today.

There is a late bet for the 17;45 Kempton - I will update at 17;00 if it is live.

Tuesday 7 april

Todays Dutch bets

Only two races frame up for Early Bets today.

Have to admit the down to 2 runner Dutch Frame isn't exactly my favorite bet on an early season maiden! Had a good look at the two leaders in the market and decided to stick with it myself.


A lot of todays selected races are marginal. The 14;20 for inst has insufficient return as a 3 runner Dutch Frame but the Early Market not strong enough (and already 44k matched) to consider it as a 2 runner frame. 

Monday 6 april

Todays Dutch bets

Five Early Dutch Frames today.

Betting spread thin for bank holiday, So plenty of selected races but most races have no early liquidity.
I will update again at @ 14;00 for today

Update for 14;00

increase to Nine live races.

Sunday

Todays Dutch bets

Seven Early Dutch Frames today.

I have had liquidity problems getting matched  at a few of these meetings today - but manged around the returns quoted.
Omit the two grade 1 races from Fairyhouse, they do meet the criteria , but the conditions there pretty terrible.

Saturday

Todays Dutch bets

Four Early Dutch Frames today.

very little liquidity for the Cork meeting at moment.
yesterday there was a single turf maiden bet at Muss - but unable to upload

Thursday April 2nd

This weeks marketing steamer award

That man Simon Patton (and his team) are streets ahead with every affiliate scammer and his dog barking for their 30% or so.

He even has the cheek to say he too is sick of flashy sites promising the earth.
And will sell you 30 systems (that should cover every runner in every race and ensure something to report) although he is not giving any of his secrets away!
Must be saving those to churn some extra funds later.

Actually the con men helping him, who hide behind a whole host of seemingly helpful sites, but really try to live off the never ending gullibility of the people they pretend to help - they irritate me most.

and they mail you stuff like:-

There is no "theory" or guessing involved. They just work.

Even bolder claims than Simon himself!
Yeah, sure just trust us knowledgeable helpful guys.

I reckon this one will net at least 25-50k for them to fight among themselves for. 
Eventually they will be able to quietly bury the corpse and latch on to the next tipster who has had a month or so's upswing.



Four Early Bets today

Update for clonmel 3 frames added

note* all the Clonmel races are very low liquidity.  best check frames near the off 


note** Blimey Andy Holden has napped Tingie in the 16;35  Clonmel maiden hurdle race!!!  He knows as much about Clonmel the goings on at clonmel as anyone.

Wednesday 1 April

Summary: Jan - March

Took a few hits in the last two weeks of March which pushed the return stats. down to bottom end of range.
I like to see the strike rate above 90% and expectation above the 20 benchmark rather than the 15.3 in the screen shot

Have put the results for Early Bets and my full ATO bets side by side.
LH side are the Early bet results compared to RH side the full bets taken ATO.

Most of the gap @ 65% is related simply to volume of bets. At the bottom of the screen shot we have the 273 early bets compared with 382 ATO.
I had hoped that the strike rate on the Early bets would be higher than the full ATO, based on the trial period i ran, but this has not been the case over this 3 month result.

Hopefully get some positive side variance in April and trade an edge 5-6% range!
March still left in profit so three profitable months for the Early Bets test.

Upload @ 18;00 for eve. meets.

Todays Early Bets

Three early Bets on afternoon meetings.

Three additional bets at the eve. meetings.