Dutch Shape of the Market
Ebor Festival Day 3 Group Races
There will be changes to the going around the country today for the first time in a few weeks. York isn't called the Knavesmire for nothing!
Today's Grp 1 sprint hasn't got any market shape and you can cover everything up 40.0 and still miss the winner. Its also unlikely the 14;30 Grp 2 will provide a backable dutch frame.
That just leaves me with the 15;05 York stakes Grp3 race
Nemoralia was going to be the one bet I took at York this week but the changing conditions have put me off. So I will take the fav-Target Bet and the available 6 runner Dutch Frame.
You will see from the screen shot the Price Gap to the next runner out of the frame isn't there at the moment but hopefully it will crystalize before the race.
The 87.7% Book val frame would have covered every winner in the 22yr record except a 33\1 in the 2003 race. Also Targeting the first 3 in the market returns @ 100.
Nemoralia put up a very good performance at Ascot on Good to soft before running in a Grp1, so I'll probably end up kicking myself for swerving on the direct bet!
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Damn!!
A Note on Going
Long term on the turf going does affect the returns on favorites. But during any season other factors massively outweigh this effect.
The only time I take note of the going on a daily basis is Turf races - Heavy going.
More importantly if there is a rapid change of going during the day I cancel bets and on days like today where the going is changing after a long stable period I am pretty cautious.
Here are the stats for all maiden races.
Bear in mind this is a sample > 25k races including the AW races. Currently there are @ 1300 turf maiden races in the season (back in 1991 there where only 800)
Its very clear going has its effect but week to week you would miss far too many betting opportunities factoring it in. Taking any single seasons results can show a variation in the favorite returns figure between 39% (2005) to 47% (2003) That 47% figure is > 2.5 st.d. positive variance. You wouldn't explain much of that checking the going during the season.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races
Grp 2 Lowther stakes is a red hot fav. market.
I went with the 3 runner Dutch Frame with the fav Targeted. Obviously the return @ 65 is pretty modest compared with backing the fav. for a 20+ return on the nose? In this market also the 2 runner dutch frame does cover 83.6% Bk val. with a better @ 95 return but in a group race I prefer to take the larger frame.
Sit back and watch if next years Guineas fav. take her race comfortably?
The Grp 1 later has Found a good favorite - but not on her best ground? So I've settled for the fav-hedge bet on the 6 runner Dutch Frame as per the screen shot.
If she doesn't get turned over the return is @ 45 on the hedge withthe 6 runner Dutch Frame covering 85.8% of the Bk.
You can in this market stretch the Dutch Frame to cover 7 runners and Target 3 or 4 at a smaller return. But there's been one high priced winner of this Grp 1 at 25\1 over the past 22year record, so I'm ok with fav-hedge bet on the 6?
Two very different markets.
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Both favs. turned over then.
So no return on the Grp 2 Fair Eva race - a bit tame in 3rd place there? But good to watch them fight it out in the Grp 1 not minding which of three prevailed in the final half furlong. Seventh heaven fought off the challenge of Found and brought the bacon home for me!!
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races
Terrific cards at the York festival this week. Todays Grp1 Juddmonte is certainly to tough for me to unravel!
We can get a six runner Dutch Frame on this years race and it would have covered every winner over the last 22 yrs. until Mr Elsworth broke the trend last year turning over hot pot Golden Horn with a 50/1 winner!!
Still its a solid prospect. In the Group races I always check out the trends, but this year has returned excellent results (so far ) on the big races.
I do like the top 3 in the betting and will Target bet the three at @95 return with the other three cover break even bets .
Here is the equal return on the six runner frame - return @65 with Bk value 88% on the Dutch Frame - RH side can see the 6th in the market take us through th 82.5% Bk base line.
If you're hook-line-sinker for Postponed, Target bet on the fav. alone returns @ 160 currently?
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***Surprising both Postponed & Highland reel drifted before the off. Finished 1-2 in market order, Postponed had it in the form book and proved it pretty stylishly. Now 6 wins on the bounce and unbeaten over twelve months in Grp1 or 2 and drifts! ***
The other two York Group races were No Bets for me today.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races
At the Curragh today's Group 1 is obviously unplayable with 4 taking on Carravagio.
The 16;05 Group 3 gives us a 4 runner Dutch Frame. I have put up the "fav_Hedge" figures, I think the favorite is beatable and hope one of the three older horses in the frame upto Fort del Oro will do the turn over on the talking , but failing 3yo?
We have 87.3% of the Book in the Frame with 4 of the 7 runner field.
Through the end of July - early August the markets have really had a settled period for me - I'll put the current figures up later.
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