Royal Ascot
Results Summary:
There was only one Live bet taken on the main early Bets over Ascot. But the side bets covering the Group races give us another 9no: winning Dutch Frames to stay involved with the top clas races.
How well you did over the nine races is down to your opinions on which runners to Target within each Dutch Frame. My own opinions were shot down yesterday as I was chasing the fav. Telescope who ran below expectations - but I did ok over the nine races.
This year there was actual only one Group race were the standard method Dutch Frame failed. Fortunately it was excluded using the 21yr.race trend figures.
Also ended the week with the standard Early bets at a year to date high P/L & my own ATO figures breaking through £20k. Relief after a tough few weeks.
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Saturday
Ok; Final day with both Group races selected.
Hardwicke
Stakes is tight with Dutch Frame 4 runner return bouncing around the
minimum 45. The 4 runner frame covers the whole 21 year trend up to the
highest price winner at 14/1 2003. Dutch frame return is low but for my
own bet I must Target the 106.9 return on the fav. Telescope. A horse
jockey combo to definitely be the right side of for a repeat victory.
Diamond
Jubilee Stakes is a very different market . Their have been 2 no: 33/1
winners over the 21 yr trend - but our 10 runner Dutch Frame would have
captured the other 19. Which to target in this race, Tough, your call!
Please
do the business for me Telescope (return improved to 115 as I struck
the early bet) and with 10 pops at the other race, I would hope to
complete Ascot week with a clean sheet?
Friday
Yesterday
judging the Norfolk stakes a 2 runner target left me profitless on the
race! - but the 5 runner Dutch frame covered the winner ok. The other
two races where a strong fav. win then a dual between fav/2nd fav. to
the line.
Two qualifying races for friday.
The
King Edward has a single 66/1 outlier result over the 21 year record,
but no other winner higher than 12/1 which was Eagle Top last year.
Thursday
Pushing the boat out today playing around with 3 off the Ascot card.
On my numbers the Norfolk Stakes certainly looks between the top 2 in mkt. So shall probably target just the two.
Wednesday
Tuesday: the Dutch Frame in each race captured the winner. But in the Kings Stand Medician Man was 2nd @ 114.0 by a nostril.
Wednesday: again just the one race matching the basic criteria 16;20 Prince of Wales stakes with a 7 runner Dutch Frame.
Returns as per the screen shot - 2 runners out of the dutch frame.
So this is the one I will play today.
Yesterday I managed to have the first 3 from 4 targeted in the dutch, today its a difficult task narrowing down the top 5?
Tuesday
Not
great encouragement from the Target Bets. Mondays Target fav. Jalingo
somehow managed to roll over in the last 50yds. and lose by a neck
against a horse it was supposedly 23lbs in at the weights with, after
trading at 1.1 Sometimes you wonder just how horse and jockey conspire
to do the opposite of the obvious!
First day of Royal Ascot there's just the one Group race meets the criteria.
We
have the 21 yr trend for Ascot and the one race covering 90%+ of the
winning prices over the 21 yr is the 15;05 Coventry stakes. Highest
price winner was 20/1 and a 9 runner Dutch Frame covers this years race
up to 32.0 So this is the one for me.
Targeting
the fav. only returns @ 155 with the next 8 runners break-even. Target
top 3 in market returns @ 83 & Target the 5 runners below 12.0 @ 61
return.
I think its a more open race than just the fav. so I will probably spread the target to my 4 selected runners from the frame.
The
14;30 Queen Anne stakes is probably ok as with only 8 runners this year
it could never get to the 90% cover. But the way my luck is at the
moment I'll just stick to the one involvement Tueday!
The
15;40 Gp1 Sprint I've probably overounded some prices too much to
Betfair decimal prices. But its a wild event, even if Sole Power is
going for the treble of wins. I'll just watch the charge down the Ascot
straight 5f. thanks.
