Posts like yesterdays may make the situation look complex / untidy?
I am just doing individual race notes occasionally to indicate the back up I use myself for early placed bets.
Early Bets are generally ok set & forget.
If its not possible to match the return I have taken before posting - try a bit of Targeting within the Dutch Frame, break even the longest priced, etc. between 70 -80% of these races are broad brush taken by the first three in the market.
Better still on dutch frames >3 runner get onto the favHedge type bet, it pays dividend long term.
If the bets are not taken early you will find a fair proportion of the selected races have changed due to tightening markets on favorites. In these cases you have lost the advantage of the larger dutch frame Early & trade off with a higher return on the smaller frame.
These bets still have to meet the filter requirements. In general if the return remains within the zone on the Book Value chart I posted they will. There are exceptions and I intend to outline the way Shape of the Market filters kick in later. No Movie (or unsupported mass marketing cons) involved.
Placing the bets early has advantages stretching the best Dutch Frame available and avoiding reduced returns as favorites markets tighten, but there are obvious trade offs involved.
- Later withdrawn horses.
- Late gambles occasionally switching horses at the bottom of the frame.
- Late dramatic changes in going,etc.
It is best to check and deal with any issues if stakes are substantial. I usually have two platforms for Dutching running and use Geek on a separate machine to adjust any price matches, trade out, etc. I like the Geek tool its quick and has good In_Play interface (and its as near as free on term licence)
No notes today as I am on the road, so straight uploads @ 14;00 & 17;30
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