Sunday 25 June

Royal Ascot:  Festival Summary

There were 22 qualifying races over the 5 days, including 19 group races.

We covered 13 of these live for a total profit of 878 and there were three additional fav. Target bets adding 213.
So that's a basic festival return of over 1k. With a bit of select Target betting in the larger Dutch Frames it was not to difficult to better this.

I know this doesn't put me up there with the pundits who can select the winner of the Wokingham Handicap at a BFsp of 42.1! But year in year out? The bookmakers love them.

In the final race yesterday we had a 9 runner Dutch Frame and had the relaxed situation of the first four runners home covered.
The Tin Man was quite heavily touted for the race so well done those commentators who had him singled out.

Sat 24 June

Royal Ascot:  Saturday

Three qualifying races for the final day.

The 2;30 The Dutch Frame will stretch to 7 runners 

Final races for the meeting 15;40 & 16;20
No fav. Target bets today so I will Target down in the larger Frames we have.

 
So for the final Dutch in the Diamond Jubilee Gp1 and I'm just taking the full 9 runner Dutch Frame in what looks like a wide open Gp1 sprint - playing cautious just levelli9ng the last two in the Frame! Hoping to finish the meeting without losses.

Friday 23 june

Royal Ascot:  Friday

Three qualifying races today

In the first at 2 :40 the Dutch frame stretches to 10 runners, I have taken the fav_Hedge bet over a 9 runner frame.

The 15;40 gets the additional Fav. Target Bet on carravagio.

thurs 22 June

Royal Ascot:  Thursday

Just the two qualifying races again today!

The first 15:40 Gp2 a 7 no: dutch frame _ i will Target 3 or 4 of these myself.

The Gold cup allows a 6 no: runner Dutch Frame cover with my Target bet onto Order of St George.

Wednesday 21 june

Royal Ascot:  Wednesday

It looks tough punting today to me on the Ascot card today?

Just the two qualifying races to go at, both 5 runner Dutch Frames. I will probably Target 2 or 3  in each Dutch but neither offers up a fav. solid Target Bet. I suppose you would have to say Highland Reel is clear of his field, but not enough for my Dutching.

 Here are the two Dutch frames as they stand early.

----------------------------------------------------------------
 Both Dutch bets in ok today. I was surprise Highland Reel drifted to second favorite?

Tuesday 20 june

Royal Ascot:  Tuesday

On the first day there are 5 no: potential races selected but I'm down to just two live bets at the moment.

In the 16;20 Churchill's credentials appear to be impeccable but the race produces a two runner Dutch and my filters say that is too risky. When you look into the figures Churchill isn't very clear fom the pack and if not I wouldn't bank on this being a two horse war.

So my two bets to start - not a very ambitious punter I know! - are a Target Bet on the fav. Ribchester in the 14;20. 
In the 16;20 here is the 89 runner Dutch Frame the race offers. I will probably be Targeting 3 or 4 of these for my interest in the race, leaving the remainder at break even.

There are another 13 selected races today so plenty of opportunity for me away from the big stage.
As the saying goes Little fish are often sweeter?

---------------------------------------------------------------- 

SoRibchester returned the Target bet well By race time the 15;40 had crystalised into an additional Dutch bet for me, to the two posted early. So three on the day.
Later Churchill dissapointed but the potential Dutch frames held up in both the swerved races.

Monday 19 June

Royal Ascot:  Where to begin!

There are two prior years of live Royal Ascot Dutching buried in the blog. This year I'm hoping for another profitable meeting. There are some very warm orders this year and a couple I will be taking on the nose, but I'm not here as a tipster! Thankfully.

So the the first race of the first day?
Ribchester is the the deserved Godolphin hot favorite.
Quite a few pundits say this is the best miler in Europe. LTO he was terrific but first time out this season he showed vulnerability at Meydan. He went off with a pacemaker took up 400m. out , everything to plan. But was overwhelmed in the last 200m. ending up third? Perhaps it was down to the extra furlong, I don't know either way.

Looking a few hours ago we could Target Bet him with cover in the market with a Dutch Frame of 5 runners in the 12 runner field. That will do me to start the festival off.
I'm starting just with the Target bet onto Ribchester and wont play the standard Dutch on top. I'll be shouting him home with my ass covered!

In previous years if always looked into the favorites record in each race. The sporting life seem to have buried there 20 yr stats on this and I've worked on improving the Shape of the Market filters on Group races. So a bit of an experiment this year and I'm hoping I've built in enough to the revised Shape of Market filters to cover these quality in depth Group races correctly.

Good luck for the week.

Sunday 4 June

Dutch:  Shape of the Market 2017YTD

What a dramatic finish to the Derby. Not much cheer for most punters.
On Friday, I posted the early Dutch Frame figures covering ten runners ~ it turned out it wasn't enough.

If you check through the Saturday figures below you can see in the end the race was  taken out by the filters. But I wanted to be on and covered the race so I have put the loss in the figures.(Teach myself not to stray too often!)

The YTD P/L stood at £15,425 after Saturdays results, so pretty well exactly to target for the 35k+ Year End.

Columns L-O show the additional Target bets on favorites I now follow.
Taking All the flagged bets (top figure) YTD return £8,620
Limited to those >£95 min return. YTD return £8,566


Saturdays Results Update:

Total race selections imported 22
Live bets after filters 13 + Derby bash.
Return on the day £341

Edge @ 3%

Many punters would think they can do much better than a 3% long term edge? Few can prove it.
Remember Casinos pay for their chandeliers with a smaller mathematical edge.

The blog is about achieving a mathematical edge against Betfair SP prices. Many (most) pundits think this is impossible. 

There is no personal selection process involved (other than occasionally chasing excitement in Grp races!) 

The selections are down to
a) Race selection
b) A set of Market filters.
c) The correct configuration of the Dutch bet to the Shape of the Market.

YTD Charts.

Friday 2nd June

Oaks Dutch Market


Results Update YTD 2017:

I'm going to upload the five months results summary tomorrow.

 Oaks Market:

Here is the 5 runner Dutch Frame on the Oaks with 30mins to the off.

This years Oaks and Derby Markets are chalk and cheese!
Today's race is going off with the ground remaining good but changing in the driving rain + thunder and lightening rolling over! 
We will find out if Rhododendrum can step up to the 1m4f ~ O'brien hasn't put a foot wrong so far  in this seasons classics.

The first Dash shot is the standard 5 runner bet / return
The second Dash shot is the additional Target bet on the fav. returning 95.

On the RH book value graph the 4 runner frame meets the min 0.825 level, but the shape filters push the bet to the 5 runner frame.














So fav. found out by the step up in trip and 'Enable / Dettori' take it comfortably 6 or 7 lengths at the post

• Dutch bet wins
• Target bet break even

 Tomorrows Derby field  offers an extended 10 runner Dutch Frame. Plenty of scope to Target Bet 2 or 3 of them for a decent return once the market is firmed up. Cracksman probably going to shorten now with money piling behind Dettori fo the double?