saturday 31 october

Dutch Lite Bets

Update @ 17;30 today


Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

• 11 no: potential Dutch Frames off the afternoon cards

• 2 no: additional Dutch Frames off the Wolv card and the afternoon results

Update - after posting the 17;45 has tightened down to a 2 runner frame - remains a Live Bet as per screen shot.

One last Target Bet for the month.

Best stream is on the Keenlands own site.

I've taken on three of the main Breeders Cup races - but this is the one we want.

• 4 runner Dutch Frame

friday 30 october

Dutch Lite Bets

Update today before 16;40 race for later cards
Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

Update & afternoon results.

1 no:Losing bet on the afternoon + 1 no; No Bet in the 15;00 Uttox (no Price Gap formed on Dutch Frame)

• 2 no: additional Dutch Frames 18;20 & 19;55

 

thursday 29 october

Dutch Lite Bets

Update today before 15;00 for second half of cards



Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

Update:

wednesday 28 october

Dutch Lite Bets

Yesterday was the first clean days results since 19th October. During the following 8 days there were 13 losing bets resulting in a drawdown on my own betting of @ £2.5k. Losing £2.5k a week is, however well prepared, mighty unnerving? 
This, so far!, isn't the worst draw down during the year. June 5 to June 12 produced @ 3.6k drawdown I bet through it and I'll bet through this one, there is no efficient alternative strategy.
Random events flow through racing results and there's no way to identify when a cluster of these occur.

Two points: if you're not correctly bank rolled and you're not fully nailed that you have a genuine long term edge. Always punters capitulate under this type of pressure?

There's a much greater chance of holding it together at a 90%+ strike rate than chasing handicappers at less than 25% strike! No doubt at all about that.

All the professional pundits tipping and selling there advice on these bets and offering proof with 40-50 results are simply trying to get an income to cover themselves when they meet the inevitable. And that's the best of them not the losers and sharks that bombard our email boxes.

Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

Update @ 17;00

tuesday 27 october

Dutch Lite Bets

Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

Here is a mark up of the Ling 13;00 maiden showing some of the key concepts to the Variable Dutch Frame.
Shape of the market factors marked up
Note in this race there is only 1 no: runner between the Pivot Price and the Field Envelope Cap. This is a very strong situation to consider a bet.

• How many runners are within the Field Envelope? The field price cap used for 10 runners is 40 - there are 5 runners within the Field Envelope.
• How many runners within the Pivot Price? Pivot price for all markets is 12.5 Four of the 5 Envelope runners are under the Pivot Price.
• How many runners are included in the Dutch Frame? The Dutch Ratio is 4.86. Using a total stake of 486 we can cover 3 runners within the limits of 45 -120 return.

This particular Dutch Frame of 4-3 (Pivot- Frame) has a Return Limit of 85.
-If you revisit the past IP chart posts this identifies the minimum Book Value.
By coincidence (or balance) with the 4.86 Dutch Ratio I bet at 85 return is very close to 85 Book Value.
The 4-3 Dutch Frame is the lowest return cap at 85. Most Dutch Frames are set  at 100 (82.5% Book Value) and a few stretch to 120 (80% Book Value).

Here is an update look at the Punch 13;45 race. This was rejected in the early screen shot but becomes a Live bet for me ATO.
Why? very little has changed.

The Field cap price for this 8 runner race is 36 and close to the off 'Gone Platinum has drifted out to 38 from an early 34. and the Field Envelope has reduced to 6 runners, of which 4 are in the Dutch Frame.
When these revised figures feed through to the Shape of the Market filters it is changed to a Live bet.
Just as I am posting up the 4th runner has taken the race - so needed the 4 runner Dutch Frame.

*Let the Shape of the Market determine the size of the Dutch Frame.*



Here is a screen shot pulling the same factors together for the Bangor 14;30
Screen shot is 15mins to the off You can see the 3 runner Dutch Frame is ok and through the 82.5 BV threshold (again we are on the 4-3 Format with the Price cap at 85) If we checked the return it is 70.59 on the calculator below the 85 max return and indicating a Book Value in the required zone. Actual is 87.3% (bottom left of calc)
The Price Gap between the Dutch Frame and next in the market is only 2pts.in the screen shot .So wait until near the off. On this occasion the Price Gap has held and widened - so I have a Live Bet.
Often I take a look at the 4th runner to decide if I should go with a tight price gap? In this race the horse 'Racing Pulse' isn't very convincing - I would have probably taken the bet at the very minimum 1.5pt Gap.

Update @18;00

• Just the 1 no: potential Frame 19;40  - check the Price Gap

monday 26 october

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

sunday 25 october

Dutch Lite Bets

No Live Bet yesterday due to Betfair being down before racing. Will post the results later.

Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

Update @ 14;00 today

friday 23 october

Dutch Lite Bets





Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

Update @ 17;30

thursday 22 october

Dutch Lite Bets





Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

Update 

wednesday 21 october

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

Update @17;30

monday 19 october

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

• Just the 3 no Dutch Frames on for today's cards 

*** Movement in some of these markets today. In the 14;30 Plumpton the 4-3 Dutch Frame became a Live Bet (The return cap is <85 on this unbalanced frame format, below the standard. Its hard to put these particular bets up correctly in advance)***

*** 14;40 Ponte Market has loosened and the Dutch Frame increased to 5 runners as a standard Dutch Bet. I took the Bet on as a 'Margin' Bet i.e. with the extra horse edged to break even. I look to do this when the return on the standard bet is anywhere below 55-60 ***

Here is the bet format returning @ 62
Making Margin adjustments or Target Betting runners in the frame obviously doesn't alter the strike rate on the bets. But personally I prefer to keep it pretty limited. You can't beat the markets long term using these across the board. 

• When the market loosens and a larger Dutch Frame is available I take these into the results. They are always remaining Live Bets.
• When the market tightens - reducing the available Dutch Frame - I leave these out of the results.

sunday 18 october

Dutch Lite Bets

Yesterday results not added into totals yet.

Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

• 8 no Dutch Frames on for today 

*** Missed the Naas 16;00 2yo Maiden off the Pre-List  (Hangover situation) Here's the 3 runner Frame Up ***

In the 16;25 Hurdle The New One has been backed off the boards & the 2 no: runner Dutch Frame is long gone. No Bet.

Favorite looked very strong on paper  - but 3rd in market 'Sevenleft' took the race well for the Dutch Bet.

saturday 17 october

Dutch Lite Bets

Yesterday was one to forget. I shipped two losing bets in the 15;25 Fakenham novice hurdle & 18;05 Dundalk maiden. Also my Target Bet got beaten, although there were no losses on the Dutch Frame.


Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

I have tagged on the bottom the two Ascot Group races I am going to play, we have 91% & 95% cover on the 21 year results trend to these two races. As always in these races I will Target 2 or 3 runners in the Dutch Frame with the balance as cover bets.

• 10 no: potential Dutch Frames off the afternoon cards.

Note: there are a number of these without the required Price Gap current time - they need checking nearer race time to see if the market crystallizes to a firm bet in each race.

***  Catterick 14;15 has reduced to a 5 runner Dutch Frame - which is a NO Bet***

 

 

roup Races.

Here is my two runner Target Bet on the first of the Ascot Group Races with return @ 115.   The additional runners in the Dutch Frame hedged down to break even

Please check past posts on Group events which I do not take into the results table. I like to play these with a minimum Target return @100

Also to take no notice of my particular Targeting in the race - just my own preferences, no better than anybody eleses opinion! 

The Blog is about a demonstrating a near mathematical edge from long term stats; not opinion.

friday 16 october

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

• 7 no: potential Dutch Frames off the afternoon cards.

Target Bet

• I'm taking the additional Target Bet on Navajo War Dancer in the Haydock 15;10 maiden

Current return as per screen shot @ 173 off the 4 runner Dutch Frame. Dropping from a decent run in a Newbury class 2 race LTO - decent mark for today's class and Ascot time before was an ok effort too.

Update

thursday 15 october

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

Racing has a bit of a whacked out look as far as Dutching possibilities today - even Punchestown suffering from small / reduced fields.
Just the two races to look at.
In the 14;55 Uttoxeter Nov H'dle   - 2 runner Dutch Frame I am taking the additional Target bet with 'A Little Magic' 
Return on this is currently @ 137. His last effort looked above par for the class and I just hope Board of Trade hasn't improved significantly in the break from some average class 5 efforts?

• 2 no: potential Dutch Frames left off the afternoon cards.

*** Withdrawal of 'Board of Trade' in the 14;55 race now means the above comments useless!
Here is the good Target bet on the reformed market Return still @ 80-90 with the serious opposition removed***

Update for Chelmsford.
Stress free Target bet for once today!
Have had to put these up early so may be market changes. The claimer needs a check on a price gap of at least 2pts. near race time.

• 2 no; additional frames tonight's card 

wenesday 14 october

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon card Dutch Frames.

Back to a bit more action today with 8 no: potential Frames off the afternoon cards.

• No Target Bet on for today. 'Bay of St Malo' in 19;15 Kempton maiden may be on later , need to check off the figures nearer the race.

Update.

• Additional 3 no: Potential Dutch Frames. No Target Bet for me.

tuesday 13 october

Dutch Lite Bets


Afternoon card Dutch Frames.
I've swerved some of these end of season maidens today - but they mostly would be filtered out anyway.

• Just the 2 no: Potential Frames off this afternoon.

Update
Both Dutch Frames on the afternoon reduced to 2 runner frames. 
These remained ok as live bets ATO and I managed to pick up the later races, which also fell into shape ATO.

• 2 no: additional potential bets off the AW tonight.

Monday 12 october

Dutch Lite Bets


Weekend Results Review.
Over Saturday / Sunday total 21 Live bets recorded.
There was 1 no: losing Dutch in the 154;20 Fairyhouse.

Target Bet:
  
I'm taking the additional Target Bet in the 15;00 Windsor today, which is a pretty open race - Weetles the fav. with a current return of @ 185.

Today's Cards:

• 6 no: Potential Dutch Frames off today's cards

  

sunday 11 october

Dutch Lite Bets


Had difficulty keeping my head above the water in the 2 day Newmarket Dubai festival, with my two main bets canecelling each pother out.
But the Ballydoyle horses where just scintillating - so I'm taking best in the World as a Target Bet in the 14;55 Curr today

Sunday Potential Dutch Frames:

friday 10 october

Dutch Lite Bets

Friday + Saturday Pre-List:
  
Today's results and Pre-List for tomorrows cards

thursday 8 october

Dutch Lite Bets

Afternoon Cards Potential Dutch Frames:

•  Looking at 6 no: Potential Frames off the afternoon

Update:
Afternoon cards - just the 14;15 unmatched.
Good results on the other 5 races. 

• 3 no: additional frames of tonight's card
•  I've taken the 21;10 early as I can't see that 3 runner Dutch Frame in a 5 runner field lasting.
  

 

Since posting the screen shot the 18:10 race has shaped up to meet the Market Criteria. (Basically a tightening move in the fav. price)

Use the Margin Bet - I use this regularly when the return has dropped below 50. Using the last horse in the Dutch Frame only has a cover bet. The stats are in favour of using this over time.

Dutch_margin Bet

 

Bet configuration Re-Cap

I use 4 bets within the Dutching format.

Calculating the Dutch Frame is the same whichever bet is configured.

a) fav_Hedge

Using the Dutch stake ratio of 486/100 - preferred on all Frames 4 runners and above. The fav return is hedged to use up liquidity with the the runners at full 100 return. Its simple arithmetic that this bet is favoured against the standard Dutch bet over time, whenever it can be played

b) Standard Dutch to equal return

All dutch Frames 2 & 3 runner Also larger frames where the preferred fav_Hedge format is not workable. 

c) Dutch_margin Bet

As above I use this regularly where the  return has dropped below 50 and often when its hovering around the 45 minimum mark.

d) Target Bet

 All runners in the Dutch Frame hedged as cover bets with 1 runner targeted for max. profit. 
There's no reason not to use Targeting more often and follow your judgement. I only go for what I consider very clearly rated runners.
Also on feature / Group races I often play more than 1 runner as the Target.
Its flexible - up to individual preferences - but only once you're meeting the full bankroll requirements (Revisit Risk of Ruin calcs)

Here is the fav-Hedge and Standard Dutch comparison for the 20;10 Chelmsford tonight. In the fav_hedge at the top the return on the favorite is currently 21 with the remaining 4 runners returning 100.

In the standard Dutch screen shot below the flat return option is 62. 

In the AW maidens stats the favorite win strike is 41%. 

We have a strike rate for the Dutch Frame of 91% 

So in these races 41% will be taken by the fav.

However the other runners in the Dutch Frame will take 50%

Losing @ 9% of the time

The higher strike on the Frame compared to the favorite's and the average returns we achieve puts the advantage in favour of the fav_Hedge Bet.

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No Live uploads tomorrow and Saturday. I'm over at the Newmarket Cesarewitch for the two fantastic days cards. 

Going full of Hopes for Emotionless in the Dewhurst on Saturday - just tremendous when I saw him at Doncaster. Hope he takes note of  my generous support!