The losing bet with a 3 runner Dutch frame in the 18;30 maiden had moved to a 4 runner (win) frame on BFsp returns. I don't now if this move happened just before the off as I had taken the bet early and wasn't watching live.
Sometimes you just get caught out, damn it! But the market is never fully crystallized until the off?
Here is the Bfsp delivering 91.9% book value on 4 runner frame.
Below is the Book value chart I refer to on the early bet selection. You can see the above return is right on the limits of the 'sweet zone'.
This is a core chart if you are digging around to identify the best opportunities once you have followed the basic race selection I have posted. It guides you exactly on how to use a variable size dutch frame matched into each market.
Just combining this chart with basic race selection is enough for anyone to gain an edge Dutching. In fact your return would almost certainly be higher than I achieve.
My Shape of the Market filters are targeted to control volatility, statistically within each type of market frame - often at the cost of some return reduction over time. Volatility is what wipes out >98% not a slightly lower edge.
Todays Dutch Bets
4 no: Dutch frames early
skip the Grade 1 novice hurdle at Punchestown 16;55
Update for late meets:
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