sat 2nd July

First 6 Month 2016 Update

I'm somewhat off the 35k Target at the end of the first 6 months of this year with a P/L figure around 14k.
I did manage to add 3k+ of additional target bets.
There have been two changes to the markets this year which I consider have affected results.
First a continuing reduction in field sizes; This has negative effects on the number of races that can be selected + reduces the proportion of bets that can be covered with the fav-hedge format returning 100 on wins.
Secondly the switch around this season from Maidens over to Nov Stakes framed races. I haven't analyzed this on the AW yet or adjusted AW selections. On the turf I took in the Nov stakes races and for whatever reason their has been a dramatic downside on returns from Maiden races whilst the stakes category boasted some good profits?

Here are the spreadsheet figures on the 30 June
 

  
You can see there were 5 or 6 sharp drawdowns to bet through off the 6 month chart.
The heaviest is marked up over the 4 days in April with a Loss @ 3,300. Its essential to take the Risk of Ruin bankroll figures I put up seriously.




The chart at the end of June flat-lined - almost certainly going related and there were one or two days during which there were rapid changes in going between morning and race time. A wiser punter would have swerved them??

 
The following is a quick analysis of the returns by each type of race used in the selections.
Three or Four notes:
  

• A really poor 6 months off Novice Hurdles were the reduced fields killed off profits.

• The AW does not include the Nov stakes races into the selections so far this year.

•  The return on turf Maidens is exceptionally low compared to the prior 10 year rolling stats. (conversely the AW Maidens played out very well over the summer months?)

•  6 months is far too short to consider any adjustments to race types selected and filters. Maiden hurdles as an example have delivered strongly after a poor period during 2015.

Looking for the second half of the year to get me back on track for the 35k Target? A few less serious draw-downs if I'm lucky?
Its tough when they happen, but trying to make money on Betfair is tough full stop. There's a lot more talk than reality on the subject?  

Using the long term stats on race selection and then checking each Market is within statistical boundaries (filters) are the only sure way I know to maintain confidence in a long term edge.

 'Know your Edge' and stay well into comfort zone on bankroll units.