Group Race Dutching

Playing the Group Races

Like every punter I like to be in on the seasons Group series.
These races do not meet the main system criteria, but there is a lot of variation between individual races.

• These are strictly Playing your profits bets only. Remember we are filtering a sample of 10 or so runs of a race to make a comparison against a long term Group sample > 2.5k The compare with tuf maidens were the 10yr rolling sample is >20k!

If we look at the Derby History there have been only 3 really long shot winners since 1978 - conversely the Oaks is a nightmare!

I will take today's Haydock Temple stakes Group 2 as the example.

Firstly I have to bypass the Shape of Market filters, the group races fail them (because the general long term stats are too low on Strike and Uplift from my figures)

We apply the very basic Dutch frame formula   i.e. How many runners can be covered at the 4.86 dutch ratio generating a return figure of 45+
The answer in this race is 8 runners up to a price currently of 16.0 covered in the Dutch Frame.

We now check the Race specific history (preferably at least the 10yr trend)
I use the sporting life free cards for this (go to bottom of field >Race History > show more)

here find the scroll down from the Sporting Life card with trend since 2000 for the Temple Stakes

Rule:
Dutch frame must cover 90%+ strike rate against the race specific results trend.

If this is met (In this example we have 15yr record & Dutch Frame must Price cover 13-14 of them to qualify the race this year) - I will have a look at a Target Bet  I want to cover for the race.
 I use my preferred speed figures, etc,  apply whatever filtering of the runners you prefer? It could be All on the fav.? just the 3rd & 6th ion the market, whatever your preference.

You can see in the final screen shot I have covered the 8 runner Dutch Frame and targeted the top 5 in the betting, reducing the others to break even cover.
I was going to leave out 'Goldstream' from the target group because I prefer to operate over minimum return of 100 on the Target group. But decided left in this time.


If say your own ratings have a preference for Great Minds, then put him in the Target Group and leave another runner out. For these entertainment bets you can cover the ground without reference to the main system

Summary:

• Form Basic Dutch frame
• Check race specific results trend
• Check Dutch Frame provides 90% + price cover against trend results.
• Use Ratings of preference to form Target Bet
• Sit back enjoy Group race entertainment

I will put up this years Derby Field as an example next week. Of course if you're convinced Golden Horn is a certainty take no notice!