thursday 21 may

Todays Dutch Bets



taking a bit of hit at the moment.

Afternoon meets: 2 no: Early dutch frames

The 16;25 Gdwd race is an example of when the market moves against the Early bet.
This risk factor with the Early bets needs to be checked and adjustment taken on the final bet.
(its not a frequent occurrence and on majority of occasions it will not matter, but with any significant money down it needs adjusting for)

So what has happened?

• Firstly the front of the fav. is weak and the Dutch frame has increased to a 4 runner frame instead of the 3 runner posted Early.
• Second  Miss Giler has been backed in to 4th in the market and quite strongly so that the price GAP between 3rd and 4th is too small to allow the original 3 runner frame ( 9.6 > 11.0 )

Revised 4 runner frame as per screen shot. The return is lower at 48.3 The price GAP between Dutch frame and Next in market (11-16) is fine and this is the live bet, but wait until ATO now and check the price gap is still ok to go live 
With @ 80k matched in the market is shouldn't move significantly now, but as the moves are happening its best to wait until ATO.

So quite a story to this wild Goodwood market In the last hour Loaves and Fishes had a sustained gamble right up to the off, touching 3rd fav, whilst Miss Giler drifted again. and the final Dutch Frame switched around again!

As it turned out Lady of Dubai won well and non of these market jitters mattered? 

But it is necessary to match market moves and take the correct ATO position with significant money down. 80+% of the time it wont matter but occasionally it does.


 Evening meets 3 no: additional Early Dutch Frames.

On very few occassions will we meet markets as difficult as the earlier Goodwood race. Most races just firm up once there is sufficient liquidity in the market.

If in doubt about any Dutch Bet placed cancel it and avoid losses.

With this form of betting the priority is not try to win - it is to try to avoid losses. In this 90+% strike rate scenario there is no relevant sequence of bets, no single bet recovering a losing streak. Its ok to miss one out. The key objective is to keep volatility under the tightest control possible.

So if doubt creeps in - Say its not a market move but a mid afternoon drenching thunder storm hits the racecourse! And you doubt the bet remains sound?  Cancel It.
Usually there is an opportunity to green out the whole Dutch bet. There's a bunch of winning ones ahead.

I use Geek (on a separate machine and screen) as back up to the dutching platform.
In the first of the evening bets you can see in this screenshot I can cancel the whole 3 runner Dutch bet using Geek for a minimal £2.02 loss - if i felt something was drastically wrong. One click cancel.