A Look at the Derby

Playing the Group Races
Summary from post 23 May

If we look at the Derby History there have been only 3 really long shot winners since 1970 - conversely the Oaks is a nightmare!

We apply the very basic Dutch frame formula   i.e. How many runners can be covered at the 4.86 dutch ratio generating a return figure of 45+

We now check the Race specific history (preferably at least the 10 yr. trend)
I use the sporting life free cards for this (go to bottom of field >Race History > show more)

Rule:
Dutch frame must cover 90%+ strike rate against the race specific results trend.

So where does the Derby figure in the spectrum of Group Race opportunities for  framing a reasonable dutch bet? 

Derby 2015

Derby is basically a top of the market race with 16 clear favs. winning over those 44 years. But you can also go 8 or 9 years without a winning favourite
You wont go 8 years without a return dutching the field.

Here is the basic Dutch frame draft for this years race. We can cover a seven runner frame up to 23.0 which easily meets the 90% strike rate on the race with only 3 long price winners since 1970.

In the 15 year record the highest priced winner is 7/1 so perhaps you will consider the 7 runner frame too conservative? Either way in 44 years it would have lost twice.

Target the fav. Golden Horn - Return @ 160
Target 1st + 2nd      - Return @ 104
Target 1st + 2nd + 3rd  - Return @ 82

Other runners in the frame hedged to break-even.
It might be best to wait a day or so Gleneagles is yet to be full declared.
So Derby is one of the Group races to include in Dutch bets; the Oaks a completely different story.