Wednesday, 18 February 2015

Todays For Consideration




Upload @ 1pm. today
quite a few for consideration.



Received an email about following selections in small fields only?
This strategy does not increase the strike rate or expectation.
During last week there was a race (not selected) which cut up to only 4 runners before the off - won by the outsider of the 4  at high odds! 
For each race type there is a No: of runners 'choke' level built in which tightens the market filters above that number. This i hope balances the field size bias in the Uplift Stats. which are central to the market filters. 
As example nov. chases have about the highest' Uplift' factor of any race type - but novice chases are over long term on average small fields and now even worse as recession gripped racing. 

There are some large fields today- see how it plays out?

The one aspect that does concern me in posting up these early markets is continuing to apply the straight dutch bet rather than using the fav -hedging method I prefer (and simple arithmetic agrees) 

The basic Dutch bet we use is Fixed Profit Staking.
i.e. adjusting the stakes to give equal return off each of the runners in the dutch.
It has been proven with long simulations that this bet equals (or v slightly betters)the returns from Level staking -but does so at reduced Volatility. Reduced Volatility against Level Stakes, thats definately worth having! - and opposite direction to all the useless staking plans out there. Quite simply we are using lower stakes as the risk increases out into the market.
Fixed profit or Return staking is the best in the business. 
Don't combine it with % bank staking but use a periodic increase in stake. The high strike rate of 90% allows a real opportunity to get exponential growth over regular period adjustments.



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