Feb 08

Sunday Leopardstown

Class filter

Fantastic card at Leopardstwon today but you will find later 4 of the races marked off with a class filter?

In nearly every type of race the long term stats fall away sharply in class 1 races (Group races on flat) for the simple reason there too much quality right down the field.

So its sit and watch these or do the  formbook research before you dutch!

Here are typical stats group on Novice hurdle @ 11k race sample

You can see in RH column the Uplift figure falls below 50% in grade 1.

Uplift:

A key concept in the filters I apply.

Defintion - The percentage of the remaining races, Not won by the favorite, Won by the next two in the market.

In the nov. hurdle races we include this runs at 66.9% i.e. If the favorite doesn't Win(38.8% it does) then 2nd and 3rd fav. Win 66% of the time.

It ma be that today at Leoparstown the favorites pour in - but I will search the form book before considering these races. Unfortunately I particular love the big chases so will probably do just that!

As its a blog I just pick up these issues as they arise.

Next week I going to post Risk of Ruin figures for bankroll. Its absolute step 1 - I can't tell anyone to take any level of risk but these numbers will be good guidance. 

Todays Dutch bets

13;25 Exeter               -  5 runner Dutch Frame
16;00 Exeter               -  2 runner Dutch Frame
16;20 Leopardstown -  3 runner Dutch Frame