Feb 10

RISK of Ruin Charts:

Here are or probability charts for bankroll wipe out.

The charts are a level bankroll scenario and do not account for retaining any profit and increasing the number of betting units. 

Chart1; is based on the Dutch bet cap set at £485. 

Chart 2; is based on @ quarter stake cap at £125.

Sample size is 1700 races giving just over a years selections.

So What happens if I set off dividing my bankroll into 10 units? Almost certainly can survive the month but @ 10% chance will go bust before increasing it by half! And if I keep trying it's15% likely. Can't risk that? 

A lot of 'What if' questions can be answered off these charts, to devise timing of bankroll and stake increases, etc. Can my staking plan keep risk under control if increasing bank at £1000 profit? If i survive 1 month can I survive at reasonable risk 1000 bets? Do I need to add back profit and reduce risk? etc.
In addition to the bankroll to cover risk,particularly at lower stakes an addition is required to cover multiple bet placement. On a busy day there may be up to 10 bets placed and this alone may be outside the comfort zone?

The colour coding is a guide only.

Briefly
LH columns - bankroll and betting units 
Mid columns - Risk probability to doube, increase by a half, increase by one quarter.
RH side  - probability to survive 1000 bets (up to 200 /month) probability to survive 1 month and Long term survival with at least sufficient funds foe 1 no: further bet.

Hopefully we now have the right selections continuing, sufficient capital and a staking plan to grow the bankroll.