Feb 14 Todays Early Bets

First selection is for the 13;40 Gowr race.

Theres is very low market liquidity on some races. Less than 5k at the moment (on A Saturday?) - so posting will be late, but before the 13;40

Today I am going to update at 2pm. The later markets may firm up by then. 

Update:
You can see the 13;25 Ling became an ATO bet - but the market didn't cristalize out until 10 mins before the race,
Have added in the 15;55 Gowran race. 
Wont include this in the early results , win or lose, as we keep the record to the early post. 

What a disaster todays Ascot card is. Good prize money for any just sub Cheltenham horses  - but no runners! First time i have missed going to this meeting for many years, but last night just couldn't raise the enthusiasm with such cut up races and it blows really cold through that main stand!

Saturday Summary:

One of those Clean skin days where the basic race selection was  all that were required. 

There were finally 6 ATO bets from the 10 pre-selected races of which we only captured 3 Early bets.
The 10 pre-selected races produced winners 4 -win favs, 4 -second favs & 1 -4th in betting in the 13;40 Gowran novice chase.  Any filters entirely redundant.

If only?

Columns H-K & P-X fed into a whole series of filters for each market type. Obviously on an open blog its not sensible to detail these but they are really necessary.  

But the race selection alone was good to us today.
The 10 year rolling stats I stick with for race selection hold good year after year. I have an old copy of 'Braddocks Complete Guide to Horse-Race Selection and Betting' which was handed down to me 1987 edition. 
The same stats are in there with only small variance, collected by Peter Braddock pre computer, pre spreadsheet. Considering the size of samples he had available there is surprising little variance with current figures.


If you take for example Novice Hurdle races. (omitting Grade 1 races)
@ 82% are won by the first 3 horses in the market.
@ 46% are won by the favorite alone.
Most importantly for our purposes the second & third in the market are taking
@ 67% of the balance of the remaining races. Our Uplift figure in column 'J'

Year in - Year out.
Dismantle what the mostly brain dead pundits are spouting on each race with this basic structure.

The final Dutch Frame is not static covering the first 3 in the market every time, it varies inline with the Shape of the market filters.