Early Selections

Todays Dutch bets

Monday around 13;00-13;30

14;05 Plumpton               -  3 runner frame*
14;20 Ayr                          - 4 runner frame
17;30 Wolverhampton   -  3 runner frame (corrected!  at 13;40)

Note*
14;05 Plumpton may well tighten up to the 2 runner Dutch frame market - but I got the  3 way frame early and although the top two look to have it on paper stick with this. Third horse is McCoy up on a first time out mount and not going away in the market. The return on 3 runner dutch is up into 60's now, better than posted.

Yesterdays only selection was a 4 runner frame (in a field that ended up 5 runners) A good quality novice hurdle grade 2 and we needed that 4 runner frame as the favorite trailed in fourth!  

Favorities!!! Longest losing run (taking all race types sequence) recorded at 30+ Can't imagine what it is at double figure odds?


Note**

The U symbol against the 16;00 Wolv means the market is unsettled with different runners moving into the dutch frame. I expect the market to crystallize later and take it ATO.


Monday Roundup

One of those clean skin days when everything goes right with all four races going in ATO
The 16;00 market did shape up for the 5 runner frame & the 17;30Wolv market kept tightening up into a 2 runner frame ATO with the fav holding off the newcomer 2nd fav. The 2 runner frame had a 68.4 return just before the off so better than the original early 3 runner return.

On the right hand side of the screen shot is the results summary for all the ATO bets. 
Expectation on the bets is running at 21.6 and strike rate 91.5%

On the early bets the strike rate is holding up at 90.2% but the actual return is quite disappointing only 44% of the ATO result year to date.
Reasons are obviously the 153 live bets against 248 and also the straight dutching each race rather than using the hedge fav bet.

I still hope the Early bets will catch up a little!