Thursday 1st October

September Summary


Monthly Results Compared

• 9 months in profit at the end of and a good September. 

Unfortunately I had a  2 x stake loss on a Target Bet and also a losing Group Target bet ( first of the year) during the month. But over the 9 months they are both positive additional returns.

My full ATO results are on good track for the 35k benchmark I predicted at the outset. The Lite bets have been up and down relative but also no losing month.

The Stats for all the ATO bets for the 9 months.

Firstly Play Efficiency?
Is it possible to improve the race selection and reduce that £80k of losses over the period. I don't believe there is any real scope for this (even after I shake my head at throwing back 80k!!) without a reduction in turnover sufficient to cut back P/L over the period.

Secondly Betting Efficiency?
Is it possible to improve the returns achieved. There are 1812 bets placed in the screen shot & very obviously just forcing £10 per bet in efficiency would net @ 16.5K? Of course this is impossible, but using the most efficient betting strategy in every opportunity at this volume of action is very positive overtime.

Next post more on Betting Efficiency.

wednesday 30 September

Dutch Lite Bets


Yesterdays Results + Today's Pre-List
The 18;10 Wolv maiden was a losing race yesterday with the 5th in the market going in against my 4 runner Frame.
Today I am taking a swerve on the three Salisbury maidens - plenty of other opportunities.

Afternoon Upload @ 13;30:

• 7 no: potential Dutch Frames off the afternoon races

Today's Update:

• All subject to Price Gap on Dutch Frame near the off.

tuesday 29 september

Dutch Lite Bets


A good clean days results yesterday.
September has been a good month for me (so far!) other than the double loss on a Target Bet.

Afternoon potential Dutch Frames:

5 no: potential Dutch Frames off the day

• 14;30 Sedge - 4 runner Dutch Frame. Take the fav_Hedge bet if possible.
• 15;20 Fairy - 6 runner Dutch Frame 
• 16;40 Sthw - 3 runner Dutch Frame
• 17;10 Sthw - 2 runner Dutch Frame

As always check the Price Gaps on the Frames nearer race time

2 no: additional Frames off evening meet

monday 28 september

Dutch Lite Bets



Today's potential Dutch Frames:

• 5 no: potential races Framed off todays cards

sunday 27 september

Dutch Lite Bets


There were no Losing Dutch Frames off yesterdays 13 race pre-list including those I swerved, so impossible to go wrong?



Yesterdays Results and Today's potential Dutch Frames:

• Have added on the 15;55 Group 2 from the Curragh which  I will Target in. The longest price winner over the 18 year trend was 10/1 - so the Dutch Frame is good 100% cover. O'Brien has won 13 of those 18 runnings, can't fault him?
  

saturday 26 september

Dutch Lite Bets


A losing bet yesterday in the Downpatrick nov chase.

Afternoon potential Dutch Frames:

• 8no: potential Dutch Frames off the day

friday 25 september

Dutch Lite Bets


Todays job is to try and dig back out of the hole created by yesterdays failed Target Bet!

Afternoon potential Dutch Frames:

Update @ 17;30

• 4 no: potential frames off the evening cards.

 

thursday 24 september

Dutch Lite Bets


Target Bet for me today in the Perth 14;10 is Vancouverite
The 4 runner Dutch Frame is @ 100 return for the Target Bet early doors but only 3.8k matched at present.
(This could well tighten down to a 3 runner frame once the market livens up)

Yesterday's Results & Pre List:

All 14 no: selected races yesteray were within the Dutch Frame , so no problem day. There were 3 winning bets not included in the Lite Bet listing

• 15;45 Gdwd This race the market crystallized into a firm bet shape late.
• 16;30 Redcar Tighened market reduced to 5 runner Frame. Live bet & won
• 18;55 Kemp  Tightened market reduced to 3 runner Frame. Live bet & won

90%+ of the additional bets can be verified using the simple IP chart and Dutch calculator.

Today's Pre List total 13 races, 2 no: omitted.

Target Bet:

• Vancouverite Return @100 on 3 runner Frame.

Afternoon Upload

Update @ 17;30

wednesday23 september

Dutch Lite Bets

Yesterday  had a losing bet and unfortunately the Target bet came in 2nd - only average and turned over by a newcomer in the predicted way! Ran its race no complaints not good enough.
No Target Bet for me today - take a rest.

Afternoon's potential Dutch Frames:

• 7 no: potential Live races off the afternoon races

Update @ 17;30:

• 3 no: potential Live bets off the late card

There were 2 races earlier which were no bet on the Lite Listing.
Taking the 16;30 Redcar race. The listing was for a 6 runner Dutch Frame but the Market tightened down to only a 5 runner Frame nearer the off. So is this still a good Live Bet? 
I'm looking at a Live tool to answer these 'What If' questions, as per the screen shot below.

The Live Price feed from Gruss into the calculator gives the situation near the off on the 16;30 race. The Graph is also Live and is a quick visual to show in this race the 5 runner Frame is now through the 0.825 Book Value threshold.
This is the Standard Dutch Bet version - the bet I placed was the fav_Hedge Bet. In the screen shot you can see the standard Dutch figures are 70-75 & the actual Book value is 86.9%
Unfortunately I have 4 separate versions of the Live Dutch calc running at the moment and I am struggling with integrating them into a single simplified read out.
These are for 4 no: bet types; fav_Hedge, Equal Return Dutch, Margin Bet & Target bet.

Here is a reminder copy of the IP chart.
If flipped it over to match the graph with highest Bk.V at the top to try and avoid confusion.

tuesday 22 sept

Dutch Lite Bets

It must have been a real real hard summer sheering sheep? Among the pile of daily drivel in my email box is a re-hash from Martin Bishop, always a stand out bad sign that punters need to cough up! 
Best advice from these guys would be a non-runner.

Target bets:
I'm going for a Target Bet in the Kempton 18;10 today.
Return on fav. Yosemite has just dipped below 100 - but should find 100+ return later in day.
This is another of those maidens with fav. well clear on my numbers, but with a bunch of newcomers, one of which needn't be much above average to turn the Fahey (but stable in great form & Jamie Spencer 25%+ strike rate last 14 days) filly over. Keep trying?? 
What could possibly go wrong! 
Poor Jamie he gets plenty of flack when it does and I'll be cursing him too if he lets me down tonight.

Had a few Target losers recently - But Dutch Frames avoiding taking actual losses on the race. I take a miserly, risk averse route to looking for the additional Target Bets because of the double stake on the race I put up. 

Obviously its possible to use the Variable Frame method to Target many more races stand alone and aim for much improved edge/expectation figures - but the trade off is a loss of volume of bets and a much slower return overall.

• The Edge x Velocity equation. 

ROI is a useless time metric. Knowing two races a year where the result is almost guaranteed certain is a great ROI but not much of a living. 

Today's Potential Dutch Frames:

• 5 no: potential Dutch Frames of the afternoon. Update @17;30

Market Changes:
*** Note the 14;35 Ballin has reduced to a 4 runner Dutch Frame -Remains a Live Bet.***

Update:

• In the 18;10 the Dutch Frame has reduced to 5 runners. I'll put up the revised figures before the off

monday 21 september

Dutch Lite Bets


Weekend Results Review.
There were 2 no; races Live ATO missed on the Lite bets listing. The two results put the ATO full bets into a small profit. Additionally there was a decent bonus return for me on the Grp 3 race and just a break even on the Target Bet, which don't go into the P/L record for the standard bets. 
The one losing bet was put up as a 3 runner Frame in the Lite listing. The market changed, drifted out to a 4 runner Frame which remained a Live bet and lost.

A struggle for small profit then over the weekend. 
But if it was remotely easy for many people to beat Betfair or profit long term from the '000s of tipsters generously spreading their knowledge, there would be no rush hour on Monday mornings!


  Today's Potential Dutch Frames
6 no: potential frames on the Monday cards.

sunday 20 sept

Dutch Lite Bets


  Today's Potential Dutch Frames

saturday 19 september

Dutch Lite Bets


  Today's Pre List & Results Update

Not too many for saturday cards with 10 races. I'm swerving the 13;10 Newbury maiden leaving 9 standard bet races to look at.
Have tagged on the Grp 3 Newbury Sprint. The other Group races today are no-go for various reasons. 5f Grp 3 races are hardly top of the wish list! But I can cover an 8 runner Dutch Frame (which does meet the long term trend criteria) in the race and play around with my selections. 
I was interested in Eagle Top in the Newbury 1,45 Grp 3 - he was also entered for the Ayr Listed race today - but can't get enough cover on him in the cut up field.
Leave it alone and have a bit of fun on the Newbury sprint after trawling through a weeks low grade stuff.

I am going to take the fav. Templier as my Target Bet in the final  20;10 Wolv maiden. Currently there is a return @ 150 on the bet but I'll wait until later see how the market crystallizes.

 Thats how Saturday stacks up for me. Hopefully I'll come out in profit.

  Upload @ 13;30 Today
 6 potential Dutch Frames off the afternoon racing.

 A loss on the Listowel maiden hurdle slowed down the afternoon. I managed one or two additional win bets to the ones listed earlier and a win on the Grp race.
Taken the Target Bet @ 118 as per screen shot but not much matched on the race yet and the return dropped to 97 after the bet.

friay 18 sept

Dutch Lite Bets

Quite a lot going on so update @ 15;30 today
I'm taking the Target bet today on Operative in the pretty competitive Newbury maiden. I'm hoping De Sousa taking over will drive him one better than at Ascot.

  Today's Target Bet:

• Newbury 14;10 Operative - 4 runner Dutch Frame Return @ 150

Today's Potential Dutch Frames:

Update & Early Results:
I took 5 of the 7 early races live. Unfortunately Target Bet didn't get there but no losses on the race and standard Dutch Frame in.

thursday 17 september

Dutch Lite Bets

Really messy day yesterday with a bunch of races eliminated, not offering Live bets. Unfortunately they all came in ok against the potential dutch frames. That's just how the markets are some days.

  Today's Target Bet:

• Chelm 20;20 Signed Sealed

Not quite as far clear on the numbers as I'd like but its sets a good standard for the class of race on the AW. 

I've put the current early figures into my Dutch Calc. Dutch Frame 3 runner in box top L.H. You can see the staking amounts on the R.H. side. In the Profit column the 2nd and 3rd in the market are hedged down to 0 allowing the fav. profit to balance at 75. On far right you can see the return on 2nd & 3rd is 487 break even.

On the Book Value graph you can see the 3rd runner in the Dutch frame is safely into the Book value zone ( see IP chart posts)

Dutch Frame book value is bottom left at 90.7

I'm hoping the market will allow the return on the fav. to drift up towards 100 later in the day.

Anyone Who would like a copy of the Dutch calc tool email me?
Its manual input at the moment.

If you are looking at a race early there is quite a neat online calculator at a small site  'iDutch' - they issue it free and you can drag and drop prices in from bookmakers to find the best available return.

On the full ATO bets I knocked again at the 30k YTD profit threshold (3rd knock always does it - fingers crossed!) So hoping to avoid another kick back!! 
No Target bets or additional Group/Class race bets included in that figure. Level Stakes at the 486 benchmark.

Today's Potential Frames:

Down to just the three for today

The market wiped out the 3 runner frame for the Target Bet - but the new 2 runner frame remains a live prospect.

I'll update @ 17;00 as its a late race.

Update:
In the 20;20 Chelm race - the 3 runner frame is below minimum return.
The 2 runner frame remains a Live ATO bet for me and returns @ 100-110 currently on the standard bet
However the Book Value is down to @ 80% on the bet and I wouldn't add in the Target Bet on the fav.
So assuming it doesn't drift back out to a 3 runner frame near the off I'll settle for the 1 no: bet only on the 2 runners.

• Subject to Price Gap near the off

• Return not increasing above 120 Cap for 2 runner frames.

 

wednesday 16 sept

Dutch Lite Bets


  Today's Potential Frames:

• No Target Bets for Today

10 no: potential races to look at off today's afternoon cards.
*** few no Bets off today's list***
14;10 List - No Bet (Market weakened and Frame increased to include 6 runners but no Price Gap available)
14;50 Sandown - No Bet (Frame reduced to 2 runners after withdrawn horse, but no Price Gap available)
15;15 List - No Bet (Again No Price Gap near the off on the 5 runner frame)
15;20 Sandown - No Bet (Again withdrawn Horse No Bet left on the 4 runner field)

tuesday 15 sept

Dutch Lite Bets



  Target Bets.
I' m taking the additional Target bet today on the Yarmouth 14;20.

Unfortunately the return has already squeezed down to @ 80 from 100 early.

Hopefully during the morning at some stage it will recover to 100 if anything else in the race gets a bit of money.

• 14;20 Yarmouth - 3 runner Dutch Frame. Target Fourth Way at @ 100.

  Today's Standard Dutch Frames.

• Check Price gaps near the off

***Note: 14;30 Catt has tightened down to a 3 runner Dutch Frame. This remains a Live Bet with return at @ 61***

monday 14 september

Dutch Lite Bets

Beginning of September has been a good run on the Group race results for me.
I'll add a results list below.


Today's standard Dutch Frames.

• No Target bet today
• 14;00 Brighton - 4 runner Dutch Frame*(screen shot needs correcting on this race )
• 14;20 Stratford - 3 runner Dutch Frame
• 14;40 Wolverhampton - 3 runner Dutch frame

Check near the off for minimum Price Gap
Also on the 14;20+14;40 races I use a maximum return cap of 85 (This is on the 4-3 Pivot/Dutch Frame races only)

Early September Group race results

Of the full 20 selected races there were no losing Dutch Frames Even the 10 Sept Donc Grp 3 winner 10th in the betting was picked up. So clean sheet.

I managed to play 13 of them after basic filters.
Some were a break even return because I only Target Bet these races. others had some success with.
I don't take them into the results summary because I only play them as Target selections. (Results are feint grey RH side)
Its an excellent way to be on for the major races - particularly if they change the placings around as they did at the St Leger on Saturday! Not to mention Golden Horn who got away with much more serious interference in Ireland?

sunday 13 september

Dutch Lite Bets

Couldn't upload yesterday.
There were 8 no: Group races on the flat . All 8 Dutch frames produced additional winning bets
Today there are 5 no: on the fantastic Curragh card. Listed below.

Today's standard Dutch Frames.

Mostly tight small races - need to check the Price Gap near the off.

 

Today's standard Dutch Frames.

4 of the 5no: races qualify as additional bets

• 14;35 Curragh; 6 runner Dutch Frame
• 15;40 Curragh; 5 runner Dutch Frame
• 16;15 Curragh; 3 runner Dutch Frame

• 16;50 Curragh; 6 runner Dutch Frame.

The Irish Ledger is much more open race than Doncaster without the age restriction. With the 56 runner Dutch Frame we have 100% cover on the race trend. Here is my breakdown for the frame.
The 6 runner frame pays 62 without the Targeting.

friday 11 sept

Dutch Lite Bets


Target Bets
Today I am taking an additional target bet in the  Salisbury 16;10
Able Back returns @ 100 and I'm going to grab that early.

There are also 3 no: Group races at Doncaster today which qualify as additional bets for me.

  Today's Frames  & Yesterday's results 
Yesterday: 1 no: Losing bet at Laytown
On the 2 Group races I took break even + 1 win.
(The break even bet was not in the original early screen shot - but in the frame towards the race time.)

 Here are my 3 no Group race set ups , but holding bets until near the off. These markets could move quite a bit yet.

 Update for later cards

All 3 Group races paid out for me on the targeted runners (noticed I put the wrong screen shot for the 15;40- apologize there)

thursday 10 september

Dutch Lite Bets

Had good fun shouting McCoy home for my targeted frame in the legends race yesterday. Some good interviews on ATR  with Lester and Joe Mercer as well as AP.

  Target Bets Group races.

• No Target Bets for Today but both the Doncaster Group races shape up for me ok. Targeting the ones I prefer in each Dutch Frame.
• 14;30 Taking the 12 runner frame which is 100% cover on the race trend.
• 15;05 Taking the 7 runner frame which is 91% cover on the race trend.

Today's Frames  & Yesterday's results

Yesterdays results and 3 no: potential standard bets on the afternoon cards.
Note in the 14;05 Epsom - will be an ATO bet if the fav. price drops clear below 2.75 later on.

***13;45 No Price Gap on the 3 runner Frame nearer the off - No Bet for me in the first race***

*** 14;05 the fav. did not shape up the market and stayed above 3.0 so No Bet again will have to play around with the Group races for the afternoon***
*** 14;30 The Dutch Frame on the Group 3 has moved around & No Price Gap near the off - Ended up No Bet on the race.***
Update

• 3 no: additional off the evening cards