Selections

HOW TO READ THE EARLY DUTCH SELECTIONS UPLOADS

Item 1: Race selection Uploads:

  

Each days list of target races is on the LH side of uploaded screen shots in time order.

For Bet selection it is only necessary to take note of column a) Race Meet & Time.

When these columns are light grey no selections have been made

When coloured up green – that race has been marked as a Dutch bet

If all columns are grey the race has been eliminated from bet list.

So to check for live Dutch bets – simply follow column a) Greened-up

Notes:

In columns b) to e) we have the long term (10yr rolling) stats for each race type. These have been adjusted for class exclusions and number of runner caps.

So if for example we check a typical Novice Hurdle  - column d) shows 82% are won by one of the first 3 in the betting market.

Column e) shows the strike rate of the 2^nd & 3^rd fav on the balance of races NOT won by the favourite. Favourites can be expected to win 46% of these novice hurdle races.

(the comparable figure for say all handicaps on turf is only 27%  from 10 yr rolling stats)

When the fav. fails to perform @ 66% of the balance of races will be won by the 2^nd & 3^rd in the market. This I refer to as the Uplift Factor and only consider races where this is well above 50%.

(again if we compare the turf handicaps this figure is down to 41%

i.e. 73% of these handicaps are NOT won by the fav and of these remaining three quarters of all handicaps with unsuccessful favs - only 41% are then won by the 2^nd or 3^rd in the market)

Back the market top 3 in a novice hurdle without any other consideration - you have an 80% chance of success, Try the same in a turf handicap you now have a 57% chance of success. An alarming difference if you're trying to achieve a high strike rate Dutching the market?

Item 2; Dutch Bets & Dutch Frame.

In the Uploaded Screen shots for the Early bets we are only interested in the Center Dark Blue columns

If the first column has the green Dutch symbol up – then it is a Live Early bet

I also use this column to indicate markets eliminated Early for two reasons

The U symbol cancels out races where the market is Unstable. Usually a new entry into the Dutch Frame from down the field.

These markets may crystallize before the off but are not playable early.

The Gr1 symbol is a manual filter on Grade 1 races (and on the turf Group1, 2 & 3 races)

These races are not considered for early bets and I only take them on later if I have taken a keen interest in the form & ratings for the race.

Simply there is too much strength in depth against the top of the market and the stats deteriorate.

A figure boxed in the second column is the number of selections included in the variable Dutch Frame. These are runners included in market sequence fav. down

The figure in the middle column is the return I got, placing the early bet.

The third column is the return (after @ standard 5% betfair tax)

Early bets need to be taken matching or bettering this benchmark return for each bet.

At the top of these four columns we have the running P/L ytd.

Below this on the left is the no; of bets placed ytd followed by the no: of losing bets.

All these figures are based on a standard Dutch stake cap of £485 with the Dutch bet placed to equal profit across the selections. Hence if bets are placed to say £100 stake cap then the figures pro-rata division 4.85, etc.

An example from the screen shot:

At the top of the race listing in shot 08- feb

13;25 Exeter is greened up as an Early bet.

The Dutch Frame is 5 runners

The return on the bet to £485 is 88.6 and 88.47 has been included to P/L.

Just below are three G1 races omitted at Leopardstown

At the bottom of the screen shot we have a Hunter Chase race at Clonmel where the market was changing.