tuesday 21 july

Early Dutch Bets

Today a there are only 3 no: race selections on the afternoon cards and useful to trial the revised format covering each of three options.
No Bet
Early Bet
Lite Bet addition

• 14;00 ffos   - this race is filtered out and a no bet. * (it failed on the race type 'maiden' filter for races > 10 runners)
• 14;45 Muss -this race is a delayed Lite bet. * The simple criteria are 1) near the off the Dutch frame price gap is >= 2clear pts. 2) A return between 45 -100 available)
• 16;00 ffos  - This race is an Early Bet place to the price target @ 119. * Criteria Near ATO cancel if Price Gap <1.5 or frame runner change

So this conveniently trials the three options 

Until the 1 August the Lite Bet additions are not included into the P/L record.

Results:
14;00 Ffos - This filtered out race was won by a complete outsider at 91 BFsp!

14;45 Muss - we can see from the following screen shot it became a clear No Bet near the off time. Return below the min 45 required. First 2 in the market fought the finish out.

16;00 Ffos - we can see from the screen shot there was no change near to the off and this remained a clear 2 runner dutch frame with a Price Gap 2.4pts (3.1 last runner in Dutch frame - 5.5 next in market)
The race was fought out by the top two in the market from a long way out and the fav. just got his head in front near the line. 

Update: 
Trial on the evening cards.
On the evening cards there are 7 no: selected races.

Producing 3 no: Early bets - match the Dutch Frame size & approx Return.

Additional 2 no: Lite bets to be checked near the off. Check the frame size remains and the Price Gap >=2pts. Or No Bet

On the final 20;50 race I will be adding a pretty speculative Target Bet on Baqqa currently returning @ 345.


Outcome:

Here is the final position on the day and the figures for Play All Selected - Early bets - Lite Bets - ATO Bets.

There is some cross reference to unravel keeping each of the bet streams on the one spreadsheet.
Column M includes the Early Bets (Green) & the additional Lite Bets (Orange) 
Columns AJ-AL are the full ATO Bets and results.

The Daily results table is self explanatory.
If we had placed bets on all 10 pre-listed races there would have been a 343 loss.
The ATO filters removed 3 no: races with a 629 profit.
On the day the additional Lite Bets only added 1 no: win result and didn't go far to bridging the gap. 

Sometimes it isn't possible to get a result without the final ATO check.
In the 17;50 Ballin race There was a No Bet on the Early listing. A potential 4 runner frame bet on the Lite listing. The eventual market tightened up offering a 3 runner frame only. This still cleared the ATO filters and was a win bet. The final screen shot shows the market ATO.
3 runner Dutch frame returning 76 with price Gap 4.1 - 17.5