Afternoon card Dutch Frames.
Here is a mark up of the Ling 13;00 maiden showing some of the key concepts to the Variable Dutch Frame.
Shape of the market factors marked up
Note in this race there is only 1 no: runner between the Pivot Price and the Field Envelope Cap. This is a very strong situation to consider a bet.
-If you revisit the past IP chart posts this identifies the minimum Book Value.
By coincidence (or balance) with the 4.86 Dutch Ratio I bet at 85 return is very close to 85 Book Value.
The 4-3 Dutch Frame is the lowest return cap at 85. Most Dutch Frames are set at 100 (82.5% Book Value) and a few stretch to 120 (80% Book Value).
Here is an update look at the Punch 13;45 race. This was rejected in the early screen shot but becomes a Live bet for me ATO.
Why? very little has changed.
The Field cap price for this 8 runner race is 36 and close to the off 'Gone Platinum has drifted out to 38 from an early 34. and the Field Envelope has reduced to 6 runners, of which 4 are in the Dutch Frame.
When these revised figures feed through to the Shape of the Market filters it is changed to a Live bet.
Just as I am posting up the 4th runner has taken the race - so needed the 4 runner Dutch Frame.
*Let the Shape of the Market determine the size of the Dutch Frame.*
Here is a screen shot pulling the same factors together for the Bangor 14;30
Screen shot is 15mins to the off You can see the 3 runner Dutch Frame is ok and through the 82.5 BV threshold (again we are on the 4-3 Format with the Price cap at 85) If we checked the return it is 70.59 on the calculator below the 85 max return and indicating a Book Value in the required zone. Actual is 87.3% (bottom left of calc)
The Price Gap between the Dutch Frame and next in the market is only 2pts.in the screen shot .So wait until near the off. On this occasion the Price Gap has held and widened - so I have a Live Bet.
Often I take a look at the 4th runner to decide if I should go with a tight price gap? In this race the horse 'Racing Pulse' isn't very convincing - I would have probably taken the bet at the very minimum 1.5pt Gap.
Update @18;00
Shape of the market factors marked up
Note in this race there is only 1 no: runner between the Pivot Price and the Field Envelope Cap. This is a very strong situation to consider a bet.
- How many runners are within the Field Envelope? The field price cap used for 10 runners is 40 - there are 5 runners within the Field Envelope.
- How many runners within the Pivot Price? Pivot price for all markets is 12.5 Four of the 5 Envelope runners are under the Pivot Price.
- How many runners are included in the Dutch Frame? The Dutch Ratio is 4.86. Using a total stake of 486 we can cover 3 runners within the limits of 45 -120 return.
-If you revisit the past IP chart posts this identifies the minimum Book Value.
By coincidence (or balance) with the 4.86 Dutch Ratio I bet at 85 return is very close to 85 Book Value.
The 4-3 Dutch Frame is the lowest return cap at 85. Most Dutch Frames are set at 100 (82.5% Book Value) and a few stretch to 120 (80% Book Value).
Here is an update look at the Punch 13;45 race. This was rejected in the early screen shot but becomes a Live bet for me ATO.
Why? very little has changed.
The Field cap price for this 8 runner race is 36 and close to the off 'Gone Platinum has drifted out to 38 from an early 34. and the Field Envelope has reduced to 6 runners, of which 4 are in the Dutch Frame.
When these revised figures feed through to the Shape of the Market filters it is changed to a Live bet.
Just as I am posting up the 4th runner has taken the race - so needed the 4 runner Dutch Frame.
*Let the Shape of the Market determine the size of the Dutch Frame.*
Here is a screen shot pulling the same factors together for the Bangor 14;30
Screen shot is 15mins to the off You can see the 3 runner Dutch Frame is ok and through the 82.5 BV threshold (again we are on the 4-3 Format with the Price cap at 85) If we checked the return it is 70.59 on the calculator below the 85 max return and indicating a Book Value in the required zone. Actual is 87.3% (bottom left of calc)
The Price Gap between the Dutch Frame and next in the market is only 2pts.in the screen shot .So wait until near the off. On this occasion the Price Gap has held and widened - so I have a Live Bet.
Often I take a look at the 4th runner to decide if I should go with a tight price gap? In this race the horse 'Racing Pulse' isn't very convincing - I would have probably taken the bet at the very minimum 1.5pt Gap.
Update @18;00
- Just the 1 no: potential Frame 19;40 - check the Price Gap
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