thursday 8 october

Dutch Lite Bets

Afternoon Cards Potential Dutch Frames:

•  Looking at 6 no: Potential Frames off the afternoon

Update:
Afternoon cards - just the 14;15 unmatched.
Good results on the other 5 races. 

• 3 no: additional frames of tonight's card
•  I've taken the 21;10 early as I can't see that 3 runner Dutch Frame in a 5 runner field lasting.
  

 

Since posting the screen shot the 18:10 race has shaped up to meet the Market Criteria. (Basically a tightening move in the fav. price)

Use the Margin Bet - I use this regularly when the return has dropped below 50. Using the last horse in the Dutch Frame only has a cover bet. The stats are in favour of using this over time.

Dutch_margin Bet

 

Bet configuration Re-Cap

I use 4 bets within the Dutching format.

Calculating the Dutch Frame is the same whichever bet is configured.

a) fav_Hedge

Using the Dutch stake ratio of 486/100 - preferred on all Frames 4 runners and above. The fav return is hedged to use up liquidity with the the runners at full 100 return. Its simple arithmetic that this bet is favoured against the standard Dutch bet over time, whenever it can be played

b) Standard Dutch to equal return

All dutch Frames 2 & 3 runner Also larger frames where the preferred fav_Hedge format is not workable. 

c) Dutch_margin Bet

As above I use this regularly where the  return has dropped below 50 and often when its hovering around the 45 minimum mark.

d) Target Bet

 All runners in the Dutch Frame hedged as cover bets with 1 runner targeted for max. profit. 
There's no reason not to use Targeting more often and follow your judgement. I only go for what I consider very clearly rated runners.
Also on feature / Group races I often play more than 1 runner as the Target.
Its flexible - up to individual preferences - but only once you're meeting the full bankroll requirements (Revisit Risk of Ruin calcs)

Here is the fav-Hedge and Standard Dutch comparison for the 20;10 Chelmsford tonight. In the fav_hedge at the top the return on the favorite is currently 21 with the remaining 4 runners returning 100.

In the standard Dutch screen shot below the flat return option is 62. 

In the AW maidens stats the favorite win strike is 41%. 

We have a strike rate for the Dutch Frame of 91% 

So in these races 41% will be taken by the fav.

However the other runners in the Dutch Frame will take 50%

Losing @ 9% of the time

The higher strike on the Frame compared to the favorite's and the average returns we achieve puts the advantage in favour of the fav_Hedge Bet.

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No Live uploads tomorrow and Saturday. I'm over at the Newmarket Cesarewitch for the two fantastic days cards. 

Going full of Hopes for Emotionless in the Dewhurst on Saturday - just tremendous when I saw him at Doncaster. Hope he takes note of  my generous support!