Today's potential Dutch Frames
3 no: potential Live Frames today.
- 14;10 Gdwd - 3 runner frame . Need to see a Price Gap >2pts nearer the off.
- 14;20 Ham - 3 runner frame. Check Price Gap remains ok.
- 14;30 Epsom - 2 runner frame.
Sometimes we have to wait until the last minute for the market to crystallize and a Price Gap sufficient to take the Live Bet.
Here is the 2pt. Gap (7.4 -9.4) in the 14;10 maiden on the off.
In the 14;20 maiden the value drained out of the 3 runner frame as the market tightened.
Dropping to a 2 runner frame is a No Bet on this race.
near the off we can just squeeze the 45 minimum return by hedging the 3rd runner to break even.
These marginal bets are usually very strong situations and in this race 1st & 2nd favs fought it to the line.
In the 14;30 Epsom maiden we have exactly the same scenario in the 2 runner Frame.
Value evaporates but can hedge the second horse and cover the fav.
Normally I wouldn't take this 2 runner hedge frame but there's nothing else today. So lack of discipline prevails and its a Very close run thing!!!
Fav. Nice Future flares his nostrils for me and gets up by a neck right on the line. Thanks mate I didn't deserve that!
So poor day and just 3 low runner maidens to go at but managed to scrape my profit. I don't really like taking all these races around the 45 return mark, but I banked my supper on a bad day.
In summary if the return is marginal but hedging the last runner in the frame hits the 45 minimum target it is a situation always worth taking. But exclude the 2 runner frames.
In these marginal situations we are taking on the highest Book Value Dutch Frame possible -which makes carrying the last horse in the frame at break even worth it.
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