tuesday 25 august

Dutch Lite Bets

Yesterday all 3 no: listed bets on the evening card cancelled either thro' lost Price Gap or Reduced Dutch Frame size.
So small profit on the day.

Early Target Bet
I have taken the fav. Rosamaria in the Chepstow 14;30 as an early bet. I manged 102 for part of the bet + 98 return for balance. At the moment the return has dropped towards 80 form the 92 in screen shot, but prob. recover with higher liquidity later.

Standard 3 runner Dutch Frame for this race is @ 60 current.
(as finished typing Rosamaria recovered >100 return)

Afternoon cards

3 no: potential Dutch Frames.

• 14;00 Chep - need to drop to standard Dutch Bet to get the 5 runner Frame in this one. 
• Price Gaps tight on these need checking near the off? I will leave the 14;30  Rosamaria Target Bet on even if the price gap drops below limit. Hoping she can handle that infamous Chepstow soft going?

*** In the 14;00 race the 5 runner frame dried up @10mins before the off. A revised 4 runner Dutch Frame remains ok as a Live bet in this race at @85 return***
***In the 14;30 race the Price gap has been lost with the next 3 in the market all close priced now, due to a bit of money for Prescott's Miss Marina Bay. I will left my bets in place & Target Bet on the record. Price Gap ATO 1.7pts.(5.3-7.0)***As it turned out the newcomer 2nd fav. was far better than the rated horses- obviously been waiting for the soft going and cruised it. So Target Bet down in second, but no losses and standard Dutch Bet in.
***15;15 Brighton - No Bet - market collapsed & long delay on start.***

Update

Here is a graphic of the 16;25 Ballin Maiden Hurdle market by volume. Book Value & Bet size across the top.
We can stretch to a 4 runner Dutch Frame with a Book value of 87.6% in the right zone on the BV chart posted once or twice.   Return on the standard Dutch bet for the frame is 68. The fav_Hedge bet only covers the 3 runner frame so preference goes to the 4 runner standard bet.
I think the graphic is clear that the 3 runner frame is a match but the 4 runner frame is safety?

 The first 3 in the market fought out the finish with the fav. winning. So no surprises and the market accurately shows the size of Dutch Frame to match it. The finishing order market 1- 4 - 2 -3 So good thing for the Frame to stretch to that 4th in the market?
  Let the market tell the number of runners to be included in the Variable Dutch Frame

Here is a reminder of the IP chart 
for the Dutch ratio on the bet of 4.85

The same info for the 16;25 race where the Dutch Frame is comfortably in the mid chart zone. On the chart 87.6% in LH column @ 68 return and a yield of 14%





Last races 1 no: additional