monday 10 august

Dutch Lite Bets

Yesterdays results:
On the Lite bets there were only the two Live Bets.
The 14;35 race was a 1 horse market.
The 15;15 Windsor race I couldn't find the 3 runner frame , even off the weighted bet I posted. 
Unfortunately the bet remained Live as an ATO bet for me with the reduced 2 runner frame; third in market took race! 
One up  to the Lite bets there!

Today I'm taking a Target Bet early on the fav. Noble Peace in the Windsor 18;20 - expecting the @ 150 return to drop later.
He only rates 40 on my 0-100 scale - but haven't been able to dig out many 'Target Bets' recently. LTO at Windsor similar going, was with leader but faded final furlong. (and passed by a few including Lydia Pearce's first time out 334.0 shot bit ominous? But tonight's field worse)

So I'm putting it up early. as I can't see the Frame changing?

Afternoon cards - 4 no: Potential Dutch Frames.

(corrected entry for 14;00 Ayr - Frame size should be 3 no: runner)

Wolv 15;15 maiden  -  fav_Hedge Bet

Here is the correct configuration for the fav_Hedge Bet
Stake/Return ratio is 4.85 (485 stake to 100 return. Pro-rata to bet size in use)
a) The maximum Dutch Frame size is set up with the fav hedged down to zero return
b) The balance of the stake up to 485 is then placed onto the fav.  - partly hedged
c) On this race the screen shot shows the fav. closed out 34. i.e. the return on the bet is 100 if the other runners in the Dutch Frame win, or 34 if the fav. takes the race. (the live bet matched to the fav at 31.99)

This is the first preference bet I use on all Dutch Frames greater than 3 runners. In this race the 3rd in the market wins and I get the full 100 return.
Referring back to yesterdays chart for maidens we have the fav. winning at an average of 42.9. Where the market allows a Dutch Frame higher than the first 3 in the market this 42.9% is reduced and the balance over time is well in favour of the fav_Hedge bet.
There are of coarse frustrating days when all the favorities come in!!


Evening cards Update
5 no: additional Dutch Frames