Yesterdays Results + Today's Pre-List
Target Bet:
14;10 Stratford maiden h'dle
I am taking the 217 return on the 2 runner Dutch Frame. Second in market was a decent listed flat horse but hope mine will hold him today.
Afternoon Cards:
14;00 Muss - have left in, but v unlikely the price Gap will be there to support the 5 runner Dutch Frame.
***With 5 mins to off we can now get the 5 runner frame with a 1.5pt+ Price Gap. Must be about worst maiden of the year this?***
Here is the 5 runner Frame with standard Dutch Bet in 6 runner race. Hard to drift or go fav. in this field of bottom class 6'rs; Still we have 360k matched!!!
14;10 Strat - good untroubled additional Target Bet with Low Key going in by 19L. I was tempted to go over to Stratford and get into this one today, just occasionally these Target Bets throw one worth emptying the satchel on without fear.
14;50 Southwell - No Bet. Value taken out of 4 runner frame below min. 45 return. The reduced 3 runner frame is also no bet with no Price Gap. I matched the 4 runner frame early, so on board with that.
15;50 Sthwl - Bet has to change to the standard Dutch bet from the posted fav_Hedge bet in order to get a match on the 4 runner Dutch Frame. Return @ 47. ***Needed that 4th in the market in the frame - he wins.
16;15 Belle - No change 2 runner frame with 3 runners below the 12.5 pivot price, the other 3 of the 6 runners way outside the envelope.
3 no: additional potential Frames off evening cards + afternoon results. Good afternoon for me with 5no: win bets (4 no: included in Lite bets) & win Target Bet
Bridge the Gap: Race Analysis 17;00 Sedgfield.
The market in this race tightened up nearer to the off and the 3 runner Dutch Frame posted up is cancelled out - the return well below the 45 minimum value.
Obviously I can't provide updates for all market changes.
Question: Is the reduced 2 runner Dutch Frame still a Live Bet?
I run the revised figures through the spreadsheet to answer this question for myself. It still meets the filter requirements and I can take the new market on.
In 90% of theses situations you can use the Book Value IP chart to get the correct decision
Here is the Bookvalue graph just before the off.(next chart 17;00 Sedgfield)
I have marked up the axis on the 0.825 value. This is the threshold value on the IP chart.
The main zone is for the Dutch Frame Book Value in the range 82.5 - 91.
(see IP chart)
This isn't exactly as the filters I use which do vary by race type, but its a very good average match.
We can see the BookValue on the 1st & 2nd fav. has now punched through this 0.825 value and indicates that the Bet is Good to take.
If you refer back to the IP chart and check across the 82.5 equates to a return of 102 on the bet.
Obviously cross referencing charts is not useful just before the off in a race?
Instead we just need to check the return on the re-formed 2 runner Frame bet.
If the return is BELOW the @ 100 figure the bet will have remained live unless other filters have been changed.
Additional check:
Put the new Dutch Bet into betting platform and check the return available
- The Price Gap is ok on the Dutch Frame?
- The number of runners hasn't been the cause? (late withdrawal?)
So here are the prices just before the off plugged in to the new 2 runner frame.
The return is 81 on the revised fav + 2nd fav. Dutch Frame - well below the 100 max and the bet is live.
On 90% of these situations this one check will put you onto the correct decision.
In the results you can see the revised figures for the 2 runner Dutch Frame in the spread (columns Q to Z)
On the right is the win result on the 2 runner frame taken ATO
In the Lite columns we have the 3 runner Dutch Frame with no return.
By following the above simple process when necessary you can close the gap between ATO full returns and the Lite bets listed.
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