wednesday

Early Dutch Bets

After a cluster of bad results over the weekend I have been reconsidering the Early Bet format.

The current situation is that they have performed badly against the results from the ATO bets and the deficit is increasing. 
Contrary to what I expected the Early Bets year to date have taken  75% of both the losing bets/ Live bets total  but delivered only just over 40% of the Profit.
This is actually completely the reverse of what I expected so I have to accept that the Early Bets plan is seriously flawed. 

There are two main problems as I see the experiment over the six months trial

• Firstly the filters I use on live bets ATO simply do not function Early.
• Secondly the risks associated with placing bets early, late market moves, non-runners, dutch frame becoming unbackable near to the off, etc are having a pretty negative impact.

Gambling is a hard nosed business. If the results are inadequate its stupid to ignore the facts.

I am working on a simplified method for taking bets from the selected races without the Shape of Market filters I use. Identifying them early but also checking the situation is right near the off.

I am not going to post Early bets Live anymore whilst I trial this. I will  just update results alongside the posting the full ATO results, weekly, monthly. Of course I am exposed doing this to publishing results after the event and no-one should rightly trust this in the racing game. But there are 6 months of posts on the blog Live now which demonstrate that there is a good basic edge using the methodology.

So as of Today the only bets I am going to post Live will be continuing (and increasing) the Target Bets on specified races.

Finally I am going to use the blog to try and provide a method you can follow towards eventually identifying correct ATO bets. I believe anyone working on a systematic approach to using the bets close to the off, and putting the effort in,  can take 40k+ out of the Betfair market once staking is around the levels I post as standard and the bankroll discipline is intact.