Jan 04

Dutchingasabusiness

Todays Dutch bets

12;50 Plumpton  - 3 runner Dutch Frame

14;30 Naas   - 3 runner Dutch Frame

The 13;30 Naas Grade 1 Novice Hurdle

ATO: I decide on these G1 races after going through the field. This race the unbeaten top 2 do look to be well clear of the opposition. So assuming everything ok I will take this on ATO

Here are the figures for Nov. Hdles showing why G.1's are not giving same returns as other races.
The 10y+ sample is large but number of G1's is only 327 so it may well be a skewed stat. But this fall away at top end repeats across many race types. Simply strength in depth.
In RH column 'Uplift' you can see the reduced 49.7% figure for G1's.
The Uplift figure is a major  ffactor into most of the filters I use.

{I define Uplift as The Percentage of races NOT won by the favorite, which are then won by the next two in the betting.} 
So for inst you can see that without Grade 1 races 66% of the balance of non fav wins are going to 2nd & 3rd in market.

I always follow And Holden in his William Hill blog for Irish racing. Love his coverage, he is the best pundit on the circuit. In this race he Naps Free Expression of his exceptional time figures. Good enough for me.

There's a story of how  Stats win over human fallibility!