Jan 31

Todays Dutch bets

13;00 Wetherby          -  3 runner Dutch Frame
13;45 Lingfield            -  3 runner Dutch Frame

15;05 Fairyhouse        -  4 runner Dutch Frame

15;20 Wetherby            -  5 runner Dutch Frame

Jan 30

Todays Dutch bets

NOTE Post getting later - aim to put up @ 1hr. before first race.

Also update Later for Wolverhampton/ Dundalk  @ 3pm. & 4pm

Update 15;50 17;15 & 17;35 Dutch frames

Jan 29

Todays Dutch bets

NOTE Post getting later - aim to put up @ 1hr. before first race.

Also update Later for Wolverhampton @ 4pm.

13;35 Thurles            -  5 runner Dutch Frame

14;35 Thurles            -  5 runner Dutch Frame

14;40 Wincanton      -  5 runner Dutch Frame

15;05 Thurles            -  4 runner Dutch Frame

16;10 Wincanton      -  3 runner Dutch Frame

late Wolverhampton - 4 runner Dutch Frame in 18;10 

Jan 28

Todays Dutch bets

NOTE Post getting later - aim to put up @ 1hr. before first race.

Also update Later for Kempton @ 4pm.


13;50 Newcastle       -  2 runner Dutch Frame
15;10 Newcastle       -  5 runner Dutch Frame

If anyone knows why capital flows into one race rather than other early and how this relates to timing of each meeting then let me know!!

Today only 30k matched so far in 2pm Leicester - so market isn't early crystallized. 

Less than half that into either the two similar Newcastle races taken. Yet Leicester race is slightly better class so why it is not attract share of funds - I don't know the possible reasons! I just have to assume it is the market indicating something?

Update Kempton 17;45 - 4 runner frame 

Jan 27

Todays Dutch bets

14;00 Taunton        -  4 runner Dutch Frame
15;10 Southwell     -  4 runner Dutch Frame

Jan 26

Todays Dutch bets

14;00 Plumpton          -  3 runner Dutch Frame
16;20 Ludlow              -  2 runner Dutch Frame

Jan 25

Todays Dutch bets

Sunday 25th

Two today


Some fantastic finishes at Doncaster over the two days, particularly Saturday - McCoy was exceptional. 
There's great feeling to have the race Dutched as they go close near the line! 

Jan 22

Todays Dutch bets

Update for ChelmC

I am up to Doncaster for Friday and Saturday so next update will have to be for Sunday

Jan 20

Todays Dutch bets

12;35 Wetherby         -  4 runner Dutch Frame

Just the one left for today

Jan 17

Todays Dutch bets

12;45 Naas           -  5 runner Dutch Frame
13;25 Lingfield    -  5 runner Dutch Frame

13;30 Haydock    -  3 runner Dutch Frame
14;40 Haydock    -  4 runner Dutch Frame
16;05 Ascot         -  4 runner Dutch Frame

Jan 16

Todays Dutch bets

15;30 Lingfield          -   2 runner Dutch Frame

Post later for Wolverhampton + Dundalk

No early bets off the 3 evening races.

Jan 13

Todays Dutch bets

Non today off only 3 possible races.

January Early bets,so far, are turning into some sort of self-medication for an insane blogger!

Jan 14

Todays Dutch bets

13;10 Newbury      -  3 runner Dutch Frame
15;25 Newbury      -  3 runner Dutch Frame

Jan 12

Results:

Yesterday produced a second race where the 4 runner Dutch Frame changed after posting.
This didn't seem an issue during trialing - but now I'm not so confident?
Has to be recorded as another loss - but anyone taking the bet later would probably have framed the correct 4 runners.

In any case the first two weeks early selections are way off the pace  - as you can see from the following attachment showing the ATO profit /Ev/ edge for January.

I've ringed yesterdays loss showing as a profit on ATO figures.

Will just continue to post without change until the end of the month, then see where we are at that point. Hopefully most are only  monitoring selections at moment and thats way to keep it until end of month review.

Todays Dutch bets

13;20 Plumpton       -  2 runner Dutch Frame

Jan 11

Todays Dutch bets

13;00 Fairyhouse      -  4 runner Dutch Frame
13;20 Chelmsford      -  3 runner Dutch Frame

13;30 Fairyhouse     -  4 runner Dutch Frame

13;40 Kelso               -  3 runner Dutch Frame
15;30 Fairyhouse     -  4 runner Dutch Frame

Chelmsford City opens the doors. Whether to go there I can't say?
Have taken the bet on myself despite the poor early January efforts!

Jan 10

Todays Dutch bets

Jan 09

Todays Dutch bets

12;30 Doncaster      -  4 runner Dutch Frame
13;10 Lingfield          -  2 runner Dutch Frame

13;20 Huntingdon    -  2 runner Dutch Frame

13;35 Doncaster      -  3 runner Dutch Frame
14;30 Huntingdon    -  3 runner Dutch Frame

Jan 08

Todays Dutch bets

12;50 Southwell     -  3 runner Dutch Frame

14;10 Catterick      -  4 runner Dutch Frame

14;50 Southwell     -  3 runner Dutch Frame

Jan 07

Todays Dutch bets

13;50 Lingfield     -  2 runner Dutch Frame

Jan 06

Todays Dutch bets

13;00 Sedgefield     - 4 runner Dutch Frame
13;10 Bangor           - 4 runner Dutch Frame
13;30 Sedgefield     - 3 runner Dutch Frame
13;40 Bangor           - 2 runner Dutch Frame
14;50 Southwell      - 4 runner Dutch Frame

Jan 04

Dutchingasabusiness

Todays Dutch bets

12;50 Plumpton  - 3 runner Dutch Frame

14;30 Naas   - 3 runner Dutch Frame

The 13;30 Naas Grade 1 Novice Hurdle

ATO: I decide on these G1 races after going through the field. This race the unbeaten top 2 do look to be well clear of the opposition. So assuming everything ok I will take this on ATO

Here are the figures for Nov. Hdles showing why G.1's are not giving same returns as other races.
The 10y+ sample is large but number of G1's is only 327 so it may well be a skewed stat. But this fall away at top end repeats across many race types. Simply strength in depth.
In RH column 'Uplift' you can see the reduced 49.7% figure for G1's.
The Uplift figure is a major  ffactor into most of the filters I use.

{I define Uplift as The Percentage of races NOT won by the favorite, which are then won by the next two in the betting.} 
So for inst you can see that without Grade 1 races 66% of the balance of non fav wins are going to 2nd & 3rd in market.

I always follow And Holden in his William Hill blog for Irish racing. Love his coverage, he is the best pundit on the circuit. In this race he Naps Free Expression of his exceptional time figures. Good enough for me.

There's a story of how  Stats win over human fallibility!

Jan 01

Dutchingasabusiness

Todays Dutch bets

12;10 Cheltenham
12;30 Catterick
12;55 Fairyhouse
14;05 Southwell

Martin Dwyer gets 2nd fav. Robin Hill to get his head down where it matter to short head the 14;05 5f sprint!  No stress elsewhere.
The additional two highlighted races - 13;20 Chelt should have been given as selection (Gr2 ok in Novice chases) got post NYE jitters somehow. 14;35 Fairy house return below minimum.