Hopeful for more action now the Turf is Here!
So a couple of weeks into the turf season and an ok start hitting it running.
Personally I can't wait to leave the winter racing behind this year - it's been a long slow grind for me.
Here is the turf start up. You can see just the 25 live bets so far with 1 loss and 975 P/L.
Jan - March this year were really slow for me, obviously the close down in February didn't help and reduced field even further in the following weeks.
One really unusual event for me was the Target bets almost catching up the total Live betting. I have never seen them so close up before.
So basically just taking the favorites below <2.5 price and Targeting the Dutch Bet profit had a better than average three months.
What's going on? First the Chart.
And that almost 2k drawdown between 28 March - 8 April. Ouch a hit of 9 losing races over 11 days!!1no: Turf loss and 4no; each NH & AW.
During the first three months there were 897 race selections but only producing 371 Live Bet situations. Small fields are problematic!
Of those 897 Race Selections almost 20% - 158 were fields with 5 or less runners.
It's difficult to Dutch these small frames profitably. Even worse of those 158 small fields, only 44% of favorites Won. This is a terrible Stat. for odds on events! The percentages are even worse for NH alone. The usual 12 runner AW races skew the numbers up.
Ave fav price of the 158 races was 1.96, strike rate 44% Not good for punters?
Today was typical of the last few months; 11no: Race Selections with only 1 no: Live opportunity. At least the SoM filters swerved two potential losing situations off the first two races.
I need faster turnover to get back on target for the year.
So at the 14 April likely the lowest number of Live selections over the last ten years. At least the strike rate is ok, holding the 92%
Role on Summer!
Personally I can't wait to leave the winter racing behind this year - it's been a long slow grind for me.
Here is the turf start up. You can see just the 25 live bets so far with 1 loss and 975 P/L.
Jan - March this year were really slow for me, obviously the close down in February didn't help and reduced field even further in the following weeks.
One really unusual event for me was the Target bets almost catching up the total Live betting. I have never seen them so close up before.
So basically just taking the favorites below <2.5 price and Targeting the Dutch Bet profit had a better than average three months.
What's going on? First the Chart.
And that almost 2k drawdown between 28 March - 8 April. Ouch a hit of 9 losing races over 11 days!!1no: Turf loss and 4no; each NH & AW.
During the first three months there were 897 race selections but only producing 371 Live Bet situations. Small fields are problematic!
Of those 897 Race Selections almost 20% - 158 were fields with 5 or less runners.
It's difficult to Dutch these small frames profitably. Even worse of those 158 small fields, only 44% of favorites Won. This is a terrible Stat. for odds on events! The percentages are even worse for NH alone. The usual 12 runner AW races skew the numbers up.
Ave fav price of the 158 races was 1.96, strike rate 44% Not good for punters?
Today was typical of the last few months; 11no: Race Selections with only 1 no: Live opportunity. At least the SoM filters swerved two potential losing situations off the first two races.
I need faster turnover to get back on target for the year.
So at the 14 April likely the lowest number of Live selections over the last ten years. At least the strike rate is ok, holding the 92%
Role on Summer!
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