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Thursday, 18 August 2016

thursday 18 august

Dutch Shape of the Market



Today's Group Races

Grp 2 Lowther stakes is a red hot fav. market.
I went with the 3 runner Dutch Frame with the fav Targeted. Obviously the return @ 65 is pretty modest compared with backing the fav. for a 20+ return on the nose? In this market also the 2 runner dutch frame does cover 83.6% Bk val. with a better @ 95 return but in a group race I prefer to take the larger frame.
Sit back and watch if next years Guineas  fav. take her race comfortably?





 The Grp 1 later has Found  a good favorite - but not on her best ground? So I've settled for the fav-hedge bet on the 6 runner Dutch Frame as per the screen shot.
If she doesn't get turned over the return is @ 45 on the hedge withthe 6 runner Dutch Frame covering 85.8% of the Bk.
You can in this market stretch the Dutch Frame to cover 7 runners and Target 3 or 4 at a smaller return. But there's been one high priced winner of this Grp 1 at 25\1 over the past 22year record, so I'm ok with fav-hedge bet on the 6?


Two very different markets.
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Both favs. turned over then. 
So no return on the Grp 2 Fair Eva race - a bit tame in 3rd place there? But good to watch them fight it out in the Grp 1 not minding which of three prevailed in the final half furlong. Seventh heaven fought off the challenge of Found and brought the bacon home for me!!

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