Sat 14 April

A wide Open Grand National

I  can't tip the winner but can advise that you can Dutch every runner up to 50/1 and get a return. So a Dutch bet covering over 20 runners, Targeting profit on around 8 to 10 of them is the way I will watch the race!
This gives me a return of 100 to the 486 stake.
 
Still no racing ground for the flat season.........heavy going and no bets so far. 
A good flat card at Leopardstown today - but only 4 runners turn out for the 2000 Guineas Trial. So I'll continue to patiently wait and hope one of my Targeted runners in the National gets there.

Monday 4 April

First Quarter; Results Roundup

There was a lot of disruption in the miserable January + February weather conditions, not surprisingly there were not great monthly profits delivered. Always quiet months. And now back to abandoned meetings over the bank holiday.

Early March produced a tremendous run right through to a good Cheltenham, so put me back on Target for the quarter.

Here is the graph showing monthly returns 2015 to March 2018 and the monthly/cumulative actual figures.

There have been some good April runs in past years - here's hoping! 
So far there hasn't been a single flat race bet to place as the season fired up - All the meetings so far offering nothing better than Heavy going! 
There would have been 19 selected races so far, despite the heavy conditions we would have been only 1 no: losing race since the 24 March opening day. Would be good to get some decent racing ground and get the bets rolling on the turf?


Here are the stats YTD 2018:
Strike rate 91% off 451 Live race selections.
P/L 5,754 off the 486 unit stake.
Also the additional Target Bets have performed well with a P/L of 4,216. This of 212 additional Live Bets placed.

Going note:
The only races I eliminate due to going are turf races on Heavy.

Saturday 17 March

Cheltenham Roundup

There were seventeen selected races over the four days. Of the seventeen one would have been a losing bet - but its unlikely anyone would have been drawn into the Grd 1 Novice hurdle on Friday with 20 runners?

Shape of the Market filters left me with 11 no: live races and a return on the festival of @ 850 with the additional Target bets I took. 

I'm not a punter weighing in often these days. I had just two serious 'On the Nose' bets on favorites in a couple of the selected races. Footpad on Tuesday at evens and Altior on Wednesday at 11/10.

It must have been one of the easier years for punters to make money, I'm sure quite a number did and I must seem over cautious to those who did well! 

Hope you were one of them?

Friday 16 March

Cheltenham ~ Gold Cup day

Two out of the 4 no: potential Dutch races are live for today.

First up the Triumph Hurdle - this year unusually a tight market and only 9 no: runners lining up. Has the fav. frightened them off?

Here is the 5 runner Dutch Frame and also the additional fav. Target bet which I will be taking on Apples Shakira. I might extend the Target to include Alan Kings Redicean, which is attracting money, it doesn't reduce the return below 100 and two onside feels better in the Triumph!!

In the Gold Cup we have an extended Dutch Frame covering 9 no: runners.
I will probably Target four of them as per the second screen shot, rather than take the standard equal return Dutch. So Might Bite, Native River, Killultagh Vic & Road to Respect on side for me with cover off the other five.

 Good luck for Gold Cup day.

Thursday 15 March

Cheltenham ~ thursday

Good day for me yesterday. Sickening to see Ruby Walshaw down and a repeat leg injury.
Today there are 3 no: potential Dutch Bets.

• 15;30 Stayers Hurdle is a no bet.

 Leaving us the three.

• 6 runner Frame in the 13;30, 4 runner Frame in the 14;50 & 5 runner Frame in the 16;50.

The 14;50 Ryanair Gd1 chase is subject to a higher price Gap between the last in the 4 runner Dutch Frame and the Next in the market(currently 14~15 needs to increase before the off). Subject to a higher than 1 pt Price Gap currently showing this will be a live bet too.

Best bet today is the Grd 2 novice hurdle 16;50. The 5 runner frame + fav. Target Bet - best on the card.

Looks a tough punters day today? Good luck.

14;50 Update

Just about got the Price Gap near the off, so took the bet 
 

 Balko Des Flos late gamble right up to the off and turned over the fav. Un De Sceaux quite comfortably!

Wednesday 14 March

Cheltenham ~ wednesday

You'ver got to admire Ruby! Straight back from a bad leg break (4th time that leg!) and two winners on the first day. His hard drive finish on Bene Des Dieux in the OLBG mares hurdle to take the outsider with Apple's Jade well turned over kept me out of trouble on day 1.

Today 4 no: races qualify. The three runner 'Frame' in the Queen Mother chase 15;30 looks a particular strong bet - but confess I have taken Altior as a value priced fav. and one of only two bets I am chancing on the nose!


Here are the markets /Frame sizes from the 3 runner frame in the 15;30 up to a 7 runner frame (favorite hedged) in the 16;10.

 First day was very much a punters day - hope it holds up for Altior going in later. Both the second and third favs. are strong opposition leaving Altior at a relative value price. The sensible advice is probably stick with the Dutch Bet!!

Tuesday 13 March

Cheltenham ~ tuesday

First day of the festival has just the two live bet situations for Dutching today, from the five potential non-handicap races. (Good luck with the Cheltenham Handicaps!!)

Both the Champions Hurdle 15;30 and the OLBG Mares Hurdle 16;10 have strong favs. in Henderson's Buveur D'air and later Apple's Jade. Grade 1 racing to savour at last, neither fav. is a well clear proposition off most speed figures!

Plenty of factors in play with the first two days on the Old course and potential heavy going.

I will just be trying to get through day~1 without mishap and take the available Dutch Frames of 5 runners with Buveur D'Air and the tighter 3 runner Frame with Apple's Jade.

The Supreme Novice Hurdle doesn't qualify and Footpad's  market in the Arkle novice chase  14;10 is currently too tight although it may imrove towards the off - I would be taking the Target bet on Footpad if the market does ease?

Thursday 1st March

Wipe Out & Continuing

It's been terrible fare through Jan and Feb and v-hard to turn a buck!
To be honest I've done so much coughing and wheezing combined with the intermittent racing, my interest has been minimal.

First day of March and no racing at all across the UK, many meetings already abandoned into the weekend, with less than 2 weeks to the start of Cheltenham. I need the markets to settle down and deliver some consistent playable races.

Here's the state of play to the end of Feb with a couple of month end losses keeping the miserable trend going!

Monday 5 February

Neck and Neck

Watching the last of the evening card today ~ Here's the 7;15 Nov. Stakes at Wolv. tonight.

 The race offered up a three runner Dutch Frame for me on the margin bet profiting off the first two , break even on the third in the market.
I guess at least 75% of punters would have favoured one of the top three in the market? In fact why guess the Bk value of the Dutch bet was 90% - so 90% of the money was thereabouts if not punters.

Screen shot coming up to the line with Galactic Spirit getting half a length clear in the last few yards. But jock Atzeni persistently used his whip on the right side and barged the favorite while right alongside. Honestly a bit more of it and he would have lost the race to the fav. in second place.
So if you backed the winner was it luck or skill? It was 100% luck and if you don't think so you're kidding yourself.

 In 2014 a statistical sports betting site Pyckio was set up a huge hit monitoring sports tipsters and offering their records and selections. Joseph Buchdahl ~ an absolute must read sports stats. guy ~ offered a detailed analysis in 2015. His detailed conclusion over the 6,000+ tipsters registered covering over a million tips was that although 2138 had recorded some sort of profit only around 45 could be statistically proven to be outside the realm of luck. here is Josephs summary.

 Time to draw conclusions. If ever there was definitive evidence that almost all sports tipsters do almost nothing more than replicate chance, here it is. Of course, to re-iterate, none of this proves beyond doubt that no skill whatsoever is operating. This statistical analysis has nothing to say about skill, merely whether a performance looks something like that which could be predicted by chance. It is conceivable that amongst the 6,000+ tipsters there may be a small few who are genuinely doing what they do with more than just lady luck looking after them. Indeed the analysis of long-term records containing a 1,000 or more tips shows that, survivorship bias aside, some of them at least might possibly be doing something better than that predicted by chance alone. A bigger and better analysis of more tipsters that can properly take into account the described survivorship bias might reveal a more statistically significant profitable fat tail containing skilful tipsters. And Pyckio being the largest (and most transparent) tipster social network online at present is in the best position to find them. Nevertheless, we are clearly not talking about many as a proportion of the total population of people playing this game.


What have we got to deliver a long term edge Dutching our selected races?
a) Long Term stats. on the high performance of the first three in the market in each of these race type and the reliability of the market.
b) The Favorite-Longshot bias: operating in these betting markets offering a small percentage of value 'within' the top of the market group
c) The elimination of many random events, as per tonight's race stewards enquiry. Or falls, blocked in, unknown ground, distance etc, etc, the endless list.

 Then we accurately set the Dutch Frame to match the Shape of the Market in each race and filter out any races as best we can outside the envelope.

The favorite-longshot bias is an aspect of sports markets recognized since the 1950's Buchdahl and many other knowledgeable guys have covered it, both from the punters and the bookmakers influence.
One article that particularly drew me was a 2010 study, "Explaining the Favorite -Long shot Bias"' It's a freely downloadable paper registered on-line as IZA DP No: 4884 from two statisticians covering over 6.5 million runners in the USA.

I got home to an email box full of 'offers' last weekend, not just the usual tipsters with 50 or so results in their track record, but also bots and one that really caught me! An automated version of VDW ~ Van Der Wheil who mesmerized many readers of the Sporting Chronicle in the 1980's and the then editor Tony Peach. There was lots of theory, data which was v hard to collect in those days, mystique, but never quite proof of the end result? 

More quietly at the same time from a copy of  1987 'Braddocks' a racing bible of the period which was handed down to me. Here is page 18 drawing attention to 1985-86 previous season novice Hurdle races.

Just about 40% of the races taken by the fav. Currently this has actually risen to an average of 44% over the last 10yrs. Explained by the reduced field sizes we have now compared to 20-30 years ago.

Trust me these long term stats are a solid basis for success!

Sat 27 January

Race Selection; Gruss QPL

To match up on Race selection you need to set up the Quick Pick List in Gruss as per the screen shot.

Menu Bar > Options > Preferences > Quick Pick List /markets

Tick off the All UK win & All Ire Win in the LH auto load box.

Type in the following list in the exclusions box, highlighted RH side:- (the bottom 4 are redundant on latest version but can leave in ok)

PA
Hcap Hrd
Hcap Chs
NHF
Nursery
Hcap
Sell Stks
Without
Reverse
Forecast
 v

So simple List of 7 exclusions to generate correct Race Selection QPL.
Check the rest of the Preferences box for match. You need to close and re-open Gruss to retain this set up

This will produce (for Sat 27 Jan the 12 N.H. races + 3 A.W. races) the correct Race Selection List ready for export to excel.

The final screen shot is the 'Live Price' import from Gruss. Middle to RH side is the transfer to my own Library format. I leave the export step manual as I like to check the listing on a daily basis. From time to time Betfair insist on slightly changing , re-spacing a race type description, which then needs adding into the library.

Tuesday 23 January

Dutch Bet Configuration

Every time I see that monthly comparison graph in the previous post that losing 2016 September month irritates me to hell! Where did that come from??


Here are screen shots showing the Four bet configurations referred to around the blog.

 1. eq Liab
Equal return on all runners included in the Dutch Bet to a fixed Liability.
Stake Total 486 ~ Return 75.80

 
































 2. fav_Hedge
Return set to a 100 return on all runners except the favorite.
Balance of stake onto the fav. In this example 51.84 return off the favourite and 100 return off each of the other 3 runners included in the Dutch Bet.

 3. margin bet
In this bet  the return on the longest priced runner in the Dutch bet is set to zero with equal return off the remaining runners.
This bet configuration kicks in if the return is low (below 50) or to allow the Dutch Frame to stretch to an additional runner to achieve the minimum 82.5% Book Value. 
Three runners return 88.23. Stakes 250, 93, 84 & 59 

4. Target Bet
This bet configuration  (automated) sets the return off all runners in the Dutch bet to zero with all the profit targeted to the fav.

Of course placing the bet manually you can Target any runner or combination ~ if you are blessed with information straight from the horses mouth!
st runner as away over Xmas New Year watching the racing from the sunshine! 

Return on the fav 150.81. On the other 3 runners in the Dutch zero

Update: The above screen shots where not taken in a live bet situation and are overlayed on an early  market before it is fully formed.  They are only to outline the stakes and returns using the four different Dutch Bet configuarations. In the past some people have jumped to conclusion that on 4) Target Bets I was just moving to a single bet on the favourite. So the screen shot shows the stakes across all 4 no: runners included in the Dutch bet and the profit taken on the favourite only.


Adding the Live Screen shot for this race.
It ended up stretching to a 5 no: runner frame to cover the two equal priced  4th + 5th in the frame. I was surprised the bet didn't switch to a margin bet and push the reurn above 50 ~ I need to take a look at that.

fav' took the race, it qualified as a Target bet too but below the min. return of 95 I take them.

Saturday 20th January

Late New Year ~ Year End Round Up. 

I was away over Xmas New Year watching the racing from the sunshine! 

Here are the figures covering the six months July to December for 2017

Return on the six months of @ 23,000 off the standard 486 stake.
Edge 4.28% and strike rate 95.2%

In the early part of 2017 i made some changes to the Shape of Market filters. This was to combat the continuing decline in field sizes (other than AW) and it looks to have paid off over the last six months of the year.

The following is a comparison of the monthly and cumulative results for the three years the blog has been running. 

 Prior to the blog starting a lot of information on prior years was developed in a private members forum. The claim I made was the Dutching method would deliver @ 35k to the 486 staking.

The blog results have lived up to it.

This is achieved using Betfair SP results - a yardstick very difficult to conquer long term. 

Sunday 5 Nov 2017

Last 4 months Results Update. 

August return was best month in the three years the blog has been up.
Return for the month of £8,200 was good boost! Well ahead of target YTD.

Over the 4 month period the Return to the standard 486 Dutch stake totaled £19,200

The fav Target Bets were very low key(bottom trace in graph) adding only @ £3,200 

Here is the cumulative and monthly comparison over the three years 2015 - 2017.

(Note there where a few small changes to the Shape of Market filters for the 2017 results.)

I made the changes as a result of the continuing year on year reduction in field sizes. The long term trend is very much more and more races /reducing field sizes.

Sunday 1 October

Prix l'Arc deTriomphe Preview

I will put the stats up for the third quarter of 2017 during the next day or two.
Meanwhile its Arc day led by the  Enable /Frankie Dettori combo!
It's hard to look beyond the fav. Enable ~ fastest timed ever Oaks winner and receiving 3yo+fillies allowance in today's Grp1.
Has to be her toughest task though?

So here's the 7 runner Dutch Frame for today's race.
And the Target bet to the favorite ~ or Target any other runner/combo  in the Dutch Frame?

Sunday 25 June

Royal Ascot:  Festival Summary

There were 22 qualifying races over the 5 days, including 19 group races.

We covered 13 of these live for a total profit of 878 and there were three additional fav. Target bets adding 213.
So that's a basic festival return of over 1k. With a bit of select Target betting in the larger Dutch Frames it was not to difficult to better this.

I know this doesn't put me up there with the pundits who can select the winner of the Wokingham Handicap at a BFsp of 42.1! But year in year out? The bookmakers love them.

In the final race yesterday we had a 9 runner Dutch Frame and had the relaxed situation of the first four runners home covered.
The Tin Man was quite heavily touted for the race so well done those commentators who had him singled out.

Sat 24 June

Royal Ascot:  Saturday

Three qualifying races for the final day.

The 2;30 The Dutch Frame will stretch to 7 runners 

Final races for the meeting 15;40 & 16;20
No fav. Target bets today so I will Target down in the larger Frames we have.

 
So for the final Dutch in the Diamond Jubilee Gp1 and I'm just taking the full 9 runner Dutch Frame in what looks like a wide open Gp1 sprint - playing cautious just levelli9ng the last two in the Frame! Hoping to finish the meeting without losses.

Friday 23 june

Royal Ascot:  Friday

Three qualifying races today

In the first at 2 :40 the Dutch frame stretches to 10 runners, I have taken the fav_Hedge bet over a 9 runner frame.

The 15;40 gets the additional Fav. Target Bet on carravagio.