Sat 27 January

Race Selection; Gruss QPL

To match up on Race selection you need to set up the Quick Pick List in Gruss as per the screen shot.

Menu Bar > Options > Preferences > Quick Pick List /markets

Tick off the All UK win & All Ire Win in the LH auto load box.

Type in the following list in the exclusions box, highlighted RH side:- (the bottom 4 are redundant on latest version but can leave in ok)

PA
Hcap Hrd
Hcap Chs
NHF
Nursery
Hcap
Sell Stks
Without
Reverse
Forecast
 v

So simple List of 7 exclusions to generate correct Race Selection QPL.
Check the rest of the Preferences box for match. You need to close and re-open Gruss to retain this set up

This will produce (for Sat 27 Jan the 12 N.H. races + 3 A.W. races) the correct Race Selection List ready for export to excel.

The final screen shot is the 'Live Price' import from Gruss. Middle to RH side is the transfer to my own Library format. I leave the export step manual as I like to check the listing on a daily basis. From time to time Betfair insist on slightly changing , re-spacing a race type description, which then needs adding into the library.

Tuesday 23 January

Dutch Bet Configuration

Every time I see that monthly comparison graph in the previous post that losing 2016 September month irritates me to hell! Where did that come from??


Here are screen shots showing the Four bet configurations referred to around the blog.

 1. eq Liab
Equal return on all runners included in the Dutch Bet to a fixed Liability.
Stake Total 486 ~ Return 75.80

 
































 2. fav_Hedge
Return set to a 100 return on all runners except the favorite.
Balance of stake onto the fav. In this example 51.84 return off the favourite and 100 return off each of the other 3 runners included in the Dutch Bet.

 3. margin bet
In this bet  the return on the longest priced runner in the Dutch bet is set to zero with equal return off the remaining runners.
This bet configuration kicks in if the return is low (below 50) or to allow the Dutch Frame to stretch to an additional runner to achieve the minimum 82.5% Book Value. 
Three runners return 88.23. Stakes 250, 93, 84 & 59 

4. Target Bet
This bet configuration  (automated) sets the return off all runners in the Dutch bet to zero with all the profit targeted to the fav.

Of course placing the bet manually you can Target any runner or combination ~ if you are blessed with information straight from the horses mouth!
st runner as away over Xmas New Year watching the racing from the sunshine! 

Return on the fav 150.81. On the other 3 runners in the Dutch zero

Update: The above screen shots where not taken in a live bet situation and are overlayed on an early  market before it is fully formed.  They are only to outline the stakes and returns using the four different Dutch Bet configuarations. In the past some people have jumped to conclusion that on 4) Target Bets I was just moving to a single bet on the favourite. So the screen shot shows the stakes across all 4 no: runners included in the Dutch bet and the profit taken on the favourite only.


Adding the Live Screen shot for this race.
It ended up stretching to a 5 no: runner frame to cover the two equal priced  4th + 5th in the frame. I was surprised the bet didn't switch to a margin bet and push the reurn above 50 ~ I need to take a look at that.

fav' took the race, it qualified as a Target bet too but below the min. return of 95 I take them.

Saturday 20th January

Late New Year ~ Year End Round Up. 

I was away over Xmas New Year watching the racing from the sunshine! 

Here are the figures covering the six months July to December for 2017

Return on the six months of @ 23,000 off the standard 486 stake.
Edge 4.28% and strike rate 95.2%

In the early part of 2017 i made some changes to the Shape of Market filters. This was to combat the continuing decline in field sizes (other than AW) and it looks to have paid off over the last six months of the year.

The following is a comparison of the monthly and cumulative results for the three years the blog has been running. 

 Prior to the blog starting a lot of information on prior years was developed in a private members forum. The claim I made was the Dutching method would deliver @ 35k to the 486 staking.

The blog results have lived up to it.

This is achieved using Betfair SP results - a yardstick very difficult to conquer long term. 

Sunday 5 Nov 2017

Last 4 months Results Update. 

August return was best month in the three years the blog has been up.
Return for the month of £8,200 was good boost! Well ahead of target YTD.

Over the 4 month period the Return to the standard 486 Dutch stake totaled £19,200

The fav Target Bets were very low key(bottom trace in graph) adding only @ £3,200 

Here is the cumulative and monthly comparison over the three years 2015 - 2017.

(Note there where a few small changes to the Shape of Market filters for the 2017 results.)

I made the changes as a result of the continuing year on year reduction in field sizes. The long term trend is very much more and more races /reducing field sizes.

Sunday 1 October

Prix l'Arc deTriomphe Preview

I will put the stats up for the third quarter of 2017 during the next day or two.
Meanwhile its Arc day led by the  Enable /Frankie Dettori combo!
It's hard to look beyond the fav. Enable ~ fastest timed ever Oaks winner and receiving 3yo+fillies allowance in today's Grp1.
Has to be her toughest task though?

So here's the 7 runner Dutch Frame for today's race.
And the Target bet to the favorite ~ or Target any other runner/combo  in the Dutch Frame?

Sunday 25 June

Royal Ascot:  Festival Summary

There were 22 qualifying races over the 5 days, including 19 group races.

We covered 13 of these live for a total profit of 878 and there were three additional fav. Target bets adding 213.
So that's a basic festival return of over 1k. With a bit of select Target betting in the larger Dutch Frames it was not to difficult to better this.

I know this doesn't put me up there with the pundits who can select the winner of the Wokingham Handicap at a BFsp of 42.1! But year in year out? The bookmakers love them.

In the final race yesterday we had a 9 runner Dutch Frame and had the relaxed situation of the first four runners home covered.
The Tin Man was quite heavily touted for the race so well done those commentators who had him singled out.

Sat 24 June

Royal Ascot:  Saturday

Three qualifying races for the final day.

The 2;30 The Dutch Frame will stretch to 7 runners 

Final races for the meeting 15;40 & 16;20
No fav. Target bets today so I will Target down in the larger Frames we have.

 
So for the final Dutch in the Diamond Jubilee Gp1 and I'm just taking the full 9 runner Dutch Frame in what looks like a wide open Gp1 sprint - playing cautious just levelli9ng the last two in the Frame! Hoping to finish the meeting without losses.

Friday 23 june

Royal Ascot:  Friday

Three qualifying races today

In the first at 2 :40 the Dutch frame stretches to 10 runners, I have taken the fav_Hedge bet over a 9 runner frame.

The 15;40 gets the additional Fav. Target Bet on carravagio.

thurs 22 June

Royal Ascot:  Thursday

Just the two qualifying races again today!

The first 15:40 Gp2 a 7 no: dutch frame _ i will Target 3 or 4 of these myself.

The Gold cup allows a 6 no: runner Dutch Frame cover with my Target bet onto Order of St George.

Wednesday 21 june

Royal Ascot:  Wednesday

It looks tough punting today to me on the Ascot card today?

Just the two qualifying races to go at, both 5 runner Dutch Frames. I will probably Target 2 or 3  in each Dutch but neither offers up a fav. solid Target Bet. I suppose you would have to say Highland Reel is clear of his field, but not enough for my Dutching.

 Here are the two Dutch frames as they stand early.

----------------------------------------------------------------
 Both Dutch bets in ok today. I was surprise Highland Reel drifted to second favorite?

Tuesday 20 june

Royal Ascot:  Tuesday

On the first day there are 5 no: potential races selected but I'm down to just two live bets at the moment.

In the 16;20 Churchill's credentials appear to be impeccable but the race produces a two runner Dutch and my filters say that is too risky. When you look into the figures Churchill isn't very clear fom the pack and if not I wouldn't bank on this being a two horse war.

So my two bets to start - not a very ambitious punter I know! - are a Target Bet on the fav. Ribchester in the 14;20. 
In the 16;20 here is the 89 runner Dutch Frame the race offers. I will probably be Targeting 3 or 4 of these for my interest in the race, leaving the remainder at break even.

There are another 13 selected races today so plenty of opportunity for me away from the big stage.
As the saying goes Little fish are often sweeter?

---------------------------------------------------------------- 

SoRibchester returned the Target bet well By race time the 15;40 had crystalised into an additional Dutch bet for me, to the two posted early. So three on the day.
Later Churchill dissapointed but the potential Dutch frames held up in both the swerved races.

Monday 19 June

Royal Ascot:  Where to begin!

There are two prior years of live Royal Ascot Dutching buried in the blog. This year I'm hoping for another profitable meeting. There are some very warm orders this year and a couple I will be taking on the nose, but I'm not here as a tipster! Thankfully.

So the the first race of the first day?
Ribchester is the the deserved Godolphin hot favorite.
Quite a few pundits say this is the best miler in Europe. LTO he was terrific but first time out this season he showed vulnerability at Meydan. He went off with a pacemaker took up 400m. out , everything to plan. But was overwhelmed in the last 200m. ending up third? Perhaps it was down to the extra furlong, I don't know either way.

Looking a few hours ago we could Target Bet him with cover in the market with a Dutch Frame of 5 runners in the 12 runner field. That will do me to start the festival off.
I'm starting just with the Target bet onto Ribchester and wont play the standard Dutch on top. I'll be shouting him home with my ass covered!

In previous years if always looked into the favorites record in each race. The sporting life seem to have buried there 20 yr stats on this and I've worked on improving the Shape of the Market filters on Group races. So a bit of an experiment this year and I'm hoping I've built in enough to the revised Shape of Market filters to cover these quality in depth Group races correctly.

Good luck for the week.

Sunday 4 June

Dutch:  Shape of the Market 2017YTD

What a dramatic finish to the Derby. Not much cheer for most punters.
On Friday, I posted the early Dutch Frame figures covering ten runners ~ it turned out it wasn't enough.

If you check through the Saturday figures below you can see in the end the race was  taken out by the filters. But I wanted to be on and covered the race so I have put the loss in the figures.(Teach myself not to stray too often!)

The YTD P/L stood at £15,425 after Saturdays results, so pretty well exactly to target for the 35k+ Year End.

Columns L-O show the additional Target bets on favorites I now follow.
Taking All the flagged bets (top figure) YTD return £8,620
Limited to those >£95 min return. YTD return £8,566


Saturdays Results Update:

Total race selections imported 22
Live bets after filters 13 + Derby bash.
Return on the day £341

Edge @ 3%

Many punters would think they can do much better than a 3% long term edge? Few can prove it.
Remember Casinos pay for their chandeliers with a smaller mathematical edge.

The blog is about achieving a mathematical edge against Betfair SP prices. Many (most) pundits think this is impossible. 

There is no personal selection process involved (other than occasionally chasing excitement in Grp races!) 

The selections are down to
a) Race selection
b) A set of Market filters.
c) The correct configuration of the Dutch bet to the Shape of the Market.

YTD Charts.

Friday 2nd June

Oaks Dutch Market


Results Update YTD 2017:

I'm going to upload the five months results summary tomorrow.

 Oaks Market:

Here is the 5 runner Dutch Frame on the Oaks with 30mins to the off.

This years Oaks and Derby Markets are chalk and cheese!
Today's race is going off with the ground remaining good but changing in the driving rain + thunder and lightening rolling over! 
We will find out if Rhododendrum can step up to the 1m4f ~ O'brien hasn't put a foot wrong so far  in this seasons classics.

The first Dash shot is the standard 5 runner bet / return
The second Dash shot is the additional Target bet on the fav. returning 95.

On the RH book value graph the 4 runner frame meets the min 0.825 level, but the shape filters push the bet to the 5 runner frame.














So fav. found out by the step up in trip and 'Enable / Dettori' take it comfortably 6 or 7 lengths at the post

• Dutch bet wins
• Target bet break even

 Tomorrows Derby field  offers an extended 10 runner Dutch Frame. Plenty of scope to Target Bet 2 or 3 of them for a decent return once the market is firmed up. Cracksman probably going to shorten now with money piling behind Dettori fo the double?

2016 Results Round Up

Another Year:


Dutch:  Shape of the Market 2016

The 2016 P/L chart:

• All Filtered race selections P/L & Full Year Return
• An additional Target Bets  P/L
• Marked up Draw Down Max .over the year

There are a number of posts on Target betting additional to the standard Dutch Bet.
The Target Bet  profile in the graph is based on selected favorites. An entirely MARKET BASED method, without any additional selection process. Over the years I have tried just about every speed rating etc to look at Target Bets. This straight forward mathematical selection beats them.


The 2016 Results and Race Type Breakdown:

 

Breakdown
 

 Hit the P/L target for the year with the strike rate on the button at 91%, but the Ev and edge were down below my model. There were one or two possible causes behind this and a more speculative reason for the drawdown period in September.
Details to follow.

friday 19 august

Dutch Shape of the Market



Ebor Festival Day 3 Group Races

There will be changes to the going around the country today for the first time in a few weeks. York isn't called the Knavesmire for nothing!
Today's Grp 1 sprint hasn't got any market shape and you can cover everything up 40.0 and still miss the winner. Its also unlikely the 14;30 Grp 2 will provide a backable dutch frame.

That just leaves me with the 15;05 York stakes Grp3 race
Nemoralia was going to be the one bet I took at York this week but the changing conditions have put me off. So I will take the fav-Target Bet and the available 6 runner Dutch Frame.
You will see from the screen shot the Price Gap to the next runner out of the frame isn't there at the moment but hopefully it will crystalize before the race.
The 87.7% Book val frame would have covered every winner in the 22yr record except a 33\1 in the 2003 race. Also Targeting the first 3 in the market returns @ 100.

 
Nemoralia put up a very good performance at Ascot on Good to soft before running in a Grp1, so I'll probably end up kicking myself for swerving on the direct bet!

------------------
Damn!!


A Note on Going

Long term on the turf going does affect the returns on favorites. But during any season other factors massively outweigh this effect.

The only time I take note of the going on a daily basis is Turf races - Heavy going.

More importantly if there is a rapid change of going during the day  I cancel bets and on days like today where the going is changing after a long stable period I am pretty cautious.

Here are the stats for all maiden races.
Bear in mind this is a sample > 25k races including the AW races. Currently there are @ 1300 turf maiden races in the season (back in 1991 there where only 800)

 
 Its very clear going has its effect but week to week you would miss far too many betting opportunities factoring it in. Taking any single seasons results can show a variation in the favorite returns figure between 39% (2005) to 47% (2003) That 47% figure is > 2.5 st.d. positive variance. You wouldn't explain much of that checking the going during the season.