Sunday 5 Nov 2017

Last 4 months Results Update. 

August return was best month in the three years the blog has been up.
Return for the month of £8,200 was good boost! Well ahead of target YTD.

Over the 4 month period the Return to the standard 486 Dutch stake totaled £19,200

The fav Target Bets were very low key(bottom trace in graph) adding only @ £3,200 

Here is the cumulative and monthly comparison over the three years 2015 - 2017.

(Note there where a few small changes to the Shape of Market filters for the 2017 results.)

I made the changes as a result of the continuing year on year reduction in field sizes. The long term trend is very much more and more races /reducing field sizes.

Sunday 1 October

Prix l'Arc deTriomphe Preview

I will put the stats up for the third quarter of 2017 during the next day or two.
Meanwhile its Arc day led by the  Enable /Frankie Dettori combo!
It's hard to look beyond the fav. Enable ~ fastest timed ever Oaks winner and receiving 3yo+fillies allowance in today's Grp1.
Has to be her toughest task though?

So here's the 7 runner Dutch Frame for today's race.
And the Target bet to the favorite ~ or Target any other runner/combo  in the Dutch Frame?

Sunday 25 June

Royal Ascot:  Festival Summary

There were 22 qualifying races over the 5 days, including 19 group races.

We covered 13 of these live for a total profit of 878 and there were three additional fav. Target bets adding 213.
So that's a basic festival return of over 1k. With a bit of select Target betting in the larger Dutch Frames it was not to difficult to better this.

I know this doesn't put me up there with the pundits who can select the winner of the Wokingham Handicap at a BFsp of 42.1! But year in year out? The bookmakers love them.

In the final race yesterday we had a 9 runner Dutch Frame and had the relaxed situation of the first four runners home covered.
The Tin Man was quite heavily touted for the race so well done those commentators who had him singled out.

Sat 24 June

Royal Ascot:  Saturday

Three qualifying races for the final day.

The 2;30 The Dutch Frame will stretch to 7 runners 

Final races for the meeting 15;40 & 16;20
No fav. Target bets today so I will Target down in the larger Frames we have.

 
So for the final Dutch in the Diamond Jubilee Gp1 and I'm just taking the full 9 runner Dutch Frame in what looks like a wide open Gp1 sprint - playing cautious just levelli9ng the last two in the Frame! Hoping to finish the meeting without losses.

Friday 23 june

Royal Ascot:  Friday

Three qualifying races today

In the first at 2 :40 the Dutch frame stretches to 10 runners, I have taken the fav_Hedge bet over a 9 runner frame.

The 15;40 gets the additional Fav. Target Bet on carravagio.

thurs 22 June

Royal Ascot:  Thursday

Just the two qualifying races again today!

The first 15:40 Gp2 a 7 no: dutch frame _ i will Target 3 or 4 of these myself.

The Gold cup allows a 6 no: runner Dutch Frame cover with my Target bet onto Order of St George.

Wednesday 21 june

Royal Ascot:  Wednesday

It looks tough punting today to me on the Ascot card today?

Just the two qualifying races to go at, both 5 runner Dutch Frames. I will probably Target 2 or 3  in each Dutch but neither offers up a fav. solid Target Bet. I suppose you would have to say Highland Reel is clear of his field, but not enough for my Dutching.

 Here are the two Dutch frames as they stand early.

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 Both Dutch bets in ok today. I was surprise Highland Reel drifted to second favorite?

Tuesday 20 june

Royal Ascot:  Tuesday

On the first day there are 5 no: potential races selected but I'm down to just two live bets at the moment.

In the 16;20 Churchill's credentials appear to be impeccable but the race produces a two runner Dutch and my filters say that is too risky. When you look into the figures Churchill isn't very clear fom the pack and if not I wouldn't bank on this being a two horse war.

So my two bets to start - not a very ambitious punter I know! - are a Target Bet on the fav. Ribchester in the 14;20. 
In the 16;20 here is the 89 runner Dutch Frame the race offers. I will probably be Targeting 3 or 4 of these for my interest in the race, leaving the remainder at break even.

There are another 13 selected races today so plenty of opportunity for me away from the big stage.
As the saying goes Little fish are often sweeter?

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SoRibchester returned the Target bet well By race time the 15;40 had crystalised into an additional Dutch bet for me, to the two posted early. So three on the day.
Later Churchill dissapointed but the potential Dutch frames held up in both the swerved races.

Monday 19 June

Royal Ascot:  Where to begin!

There are two prior years of live Royal Ascot Dutching buried in the blog. This year I'm hoping for another profitable meeting. There are some very warm orders this year and a couple I will be taking on the nose, but I'm not here as a tipster! Thankfully.

So the the first race of the first day?
Ribchester is the the deserved Godolphin hot favorite.
Quite a few pundits say this is the best miler in Europe. LTO he was terrific but first time out this season he showed vulnerability at Meydan. He went off with a pacemaker took up 400m. out , everything to plan. But was overwhelmed in the last 200m. ending up third? Perhaps it was down to the extra furlong, I don't know either way.

Looking a few hours ago we could Target Bet him with cover in the market with a Dutch Frame of 5 runners in the 12 runner field. That will do me to start the festival off.
I'm starting just with the Target bet onto Ribchester and wont play the standard Dutch on top. I'll be shouting him home with my ass covered!

In previous years if always looked into the favorites record in each race. The sporting life seem to have buried there 20 yr stats on this and I've worked on improving the Shape of the Market filters on Group races. So a bit of an experiment this year and I'm hoping I've built in enough to the revised Shape of Market filters to cover these quality in depth Group races correctly.

Good luck for the week.

Sunday 4 June

Dutch:  Shape of the Market 2017YTD

What a dramatic finish to the Derby. Not much cheer for most punters.
On Friday, I posted the early Dutch Frame figures covering ten runners ~ it turned out it wasn't enough.

If you check through the Saturday figures below you can see in the end the race was  taken out by the filters. But I wanted to be on and covered the race so I have put the loss in the figures.(Teach myself not to stray too often!)

The YTD P/L stood at £15,425 after Saturdays results, so pretty well exactly to target for the 35k+ Year End.

Columns L-O show the additional Target bets on favorites I now follow.
Taking All the flagged bets (top figure) YTD return £8,620
Limited to those >£95 min return. YTD return £8,566


Saturdays Results Update:

Total race selections imported 22
Live bets after filters 13 + Derby bash.
Return on the day £341

Edge @ 3%

Many punters would think they can do much better than a 3% long term edge? Few can prove it.
Remember Casinos pay for their chandeliers with a smaller mathematical edge.

The blog is about achieving a mathematical edge against Betfair SP prices. Many (most) pundits think this is impossible. 

There is no personal selection process involved (other than occasionally chasing excitement in Grp races!) 

The selections are down to
a) Race selection
b) A set of Market filters.
c) The correct configuration of the Dutch bet to the Shape of the Market.

YTD Charts.

Friday 2nd June

Oaks Dutch Market


Results Update YTD 2017:

I'm going to upload the five months results summary tomorrow.

 Oaks Market:

Here is the 5 runner Dutch Frame on the Oaks with 30mins to the off.

This years Oaks and Derby Markets are chalk and cheese!
Today's race is going off with the ground remaining good but changing in the driving rain + thunder and lightening rolling over! 
We will find out if Rhododendrum can step up to the 1m4f ~ O'brien hasn't put a foot wrong so far  in this seasons classics.

The first Dash shot is the standard 5 runner bet / return
The second Dash shot is the additional Target bet on the fav. returning 95.

On the RH book value graph the 4 runner frame meets the min 0.825 level, but the shape filters push the bet to the 5 runner frame.














So fav. found out by the step up in trip and 'Enable / Dettori' take it comfortably 6 or 7 lengths at the post

• Dutch bet wins
• Target bet break even

 Tomorrows Derby field  offers an extended 10 runner Dutch Frame. Plenty of scope to Target Bet 2 or 3 of them for a decent return once the market is firmed up. Cracksman probably going to shorten now with money piling behind Dettori fo the double?

2016 Results Round Up

Another Year:


Dutch:  Shape of the Market 2016

The 2016 P/L chart:

• All Filtered race selections P/L & Full Year Return
• An additional Target Bets  P/L
• Marked up Draw Down Max .over the year

There are a number of posts on Target betting additional to the standard Dutch Bet.
The Target Bet  profile in the graph is based on selected favorites. An entirely MARKET BASED method, without any additional selection process. Over the years I have tried just about every speed rating etc to look at Target Bets. This straight forward mathematical selection beats them.


The 2016 Results and Race Type Breakdown:

 

Breakdown
 

 Hit the P/L target for the year with the strike rate on the button at 91%, but the Ev and edge were down below my model. There were one or two possible causes behind this and a more speculative reason for the drawdown period in September.
Details to follow.

friday 19 august

Dutch Shape of the Market



Ebor Festival Day 3 Group Races

There will be changes to the going around the country today for the first time in a few weeks. York isn't called the Knavesmire for nothing!
Today's Grp 1 sprint hasn't got any market shape and you can cover everything up 40.0 and still miss the winner. Its also unlikely the 14;30 Grp 2 will provide a backable dutch frame.

That just leaves me with the 15;05 York stakes Grp3 race
Nemoralia was going to be the one bet I took at York this week but the changing conditions have put me off. So I will take the fav-Target Bet and the available 6 runner Dutch Frame.
You will see from the screen shot the Price Gap to the next runner out of the frame isn't there at the moment but hopefully it will crystalize before the race.
The 87.7% Book val frame would have covered every winner in the 22yr record except a 33\1 in the 2003 race. Also Targeting the first 3 in the market returns @ 100.

 
Nemoralia put up a very good performance at Ascot on Good to soft before running in a Grp1, so I'll probably end up kicking myself for swerving on the direct bet!

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Damn!!


A Note on Going

Long term on the turf going does affect the returns on favorites. But during any season other factors massively outweigh this effect.

The only time I take note of the going on a daily basis is Turf races - Heavy going.

More importantly if there is a rapid change of going during the day  I cancel bets and on days like today where the going is changing after a long stable period I am pretty cautious.

Here are the stats for all maiden races.
Bear in mind this is a sample > 25k races including the AW races. Currently there are @ 1300 turf maiden races in the season (back in 1991 there where only 800)

 
 Its very clear going has its effect but week to week you would miss far too many betting opportunities factoring it in. Taking any single seasons results can show a variation in the favorite returns figure between 39% (2005) to 47% (2003) That 47% figure is > 2.5 st.d. positive variance. You wouldn't explain much of that checking the going during the season.

thursday 18 august

Dutch Shape of the Market



Today's Group Races

Grp 2 Lowther stakes is a red hot fav. market.
I went with the 3 runner Dutch Frame with the fav Targeted. Obviously the return @ 65 is pretty modest compared with backing the fav. for a 20+ return on the nose? In this market also the 2 runner dutch frame does cover 83.6% Bk val. with a better @ 95 return but in a group race I prefer to take the larger frame.
Sit back and watch if next years Guineas  fav. take her race comfortably?

 The Grp 1 later has Found  a good favorite - but not on her best ground? So I've settled for the fav-hedge bet on the 6 runner Dutch Frame as per the screen shot.
If she doesn't get turned over the return is @ 45 on the hedge withthe 6 runner Dutch Frame covering 85.8% of the Bk.
You can in this market stretch the Dutch Frame to cover 7 runners and Target 3 or 4 at a smaller return. But there's been one high priced winner of this Grp 1 at 25\1 over the past 22year record, so I'm ok with fav-hedge bet on the 6?

Two very different markets.
 ------------------------------------------------
Both favs. turned over then. 
So no return on the Grp 2 Fair Eva race - a bit tame in 3rd place there? But good to watch them fight it out in the Grp 1 not minding which of three prevailed in the final half furlong. Seventh heaven fought off the challenge of Found and brought the bacon home for me!!

Wednesday 17 August

Dutch Shape of the Market



Today's Group Races

Terrific cards at the York festival this week. Todays Grp1 Juddmonte is certainly to tough for me to unravel!

We can get a six runner Dutch Frame on this years race and it would have covered every winner over the last 22 yrs. until Mr Elsworth broke the trend last year turning over hot pot Golden Horn with a 50/1 winner!!

 Still its a solid prospect. In the Group races I always check out the trends, but this year has returned excellent results (so far ) on the big races.

I do like the top 3 in the betting and will Target bet the three at  @95 return with the other three cover break even bets .
Here is the equal return on the six runner frame - return  @65 with Bk value 88% on the Dutch Frame - RH side can see the 6th in the market take us through th 82.5% Bk base line.       

If you're hook-line-sinker for Postponed, Target bet on the fav. alone returns @ 160 currently?
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***Surprising both Postponed  & Highland reel drifted before the off.  Finished 1-2 in market order, Postponed had it in the form book and proved it pretty stylishly. Now 6 wins on the bounce and unbeaten over twelve months in Grp1 or 2 and drifts! ***

The other two York Group races were No Bets for me today.


 

sunday 7 august

Dutch Shape of the Market



Today's Group Races

At the Curragh today's Group 1 is obviously unplayable with 4 taking on Carravagio.

The 16;05 Group 3 gives us a 4 runner Dutch Frame. I have put up the "fav_Hedge" figures, I think the favorite is beatable and hope one of the three older horses in the frame upto Fort del Oro will do the turn over on the talking , but failing 3yo?
We have 87.3% of the Book in the Frame with 4 of the 7 runner field.

 Through the end of July - early August the markets have really had a settled period for me - I'll put the current figures up later.

.

sat 30 july

Dutch Shape of the Market



Goodwood Festival

I didn't put up the Frame for the Gp1 Nasseu stakes today . It produced a 2 runner Dutch frame to bet but Its almost an insult to 'Minding' to dutch the race. I think the first filly for many many years to take the race? 


Here are the 13 no: group races from the week at Goodwood. I was able to lay 9 of the 13 group events. One of the eliminate  races would have been a losing Dutch bet.

If you check back the stats the Book Value on this losing 5 runner Group 2 was 80.3% on the 2 runner Dutch Frame. Eliminated below the 82,5% threshold. The 3 runner frame was not achievable below the minimum return, the third in the market took the race.