Dutch Shape of the Market
Ebor Festival Day 3 Group Races
There will be changes to the going around the country today for the first time in a few weeks. York isn't called the Knavesmire for nothing!
Today's Grp 1 sprint hasn't got any market shape and you can cover everything up 40.0 and still miss the winner. Its also unlikely the 14;30 Grp 2 will provide a backable dutch frame.
That just leaves me with the 15;05 York stakes Grp3 race
Nemoralia was going to be the one bet I took at York this week but the changing conditions have put me off. So I will take the fav-Target Bet and the available 6 runner Dutch Frame.
You will see from the screen shot the Price Gap to the next runner out of the frame isn't there at the moment but hopefully it will crystalize before the race.
The 87.7% Book val frame would have covered every winner in the 22yr record except a 33\1 in the 2003 race. Also Targeting the first 3 in the market returns @ 100.
Nemoralia put up a very good performance at Ascot on Good to soft before running in a Grp1, so I'll probably end up kicking myself for swerving on the direct bet!
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Damn!!
A Note on Going
Long term on the turf going does affect the returns on favorites. But during any season other factors massively outweigh this effect.
The only time I take note of the going on a daily basis is Turf races - Heavy going.
More importantly if there is a rapid change of going during the day I cancel bets and on days like today where the going is changing after a long stable period I am pretty cautious.
Here are the stats for all maiden races.
Bear in mind this is a sample > 25k races including the AW races. Currently there are @ 1300 turf maiden races in the season (back in 1991 there where only 800)
Its very clear going has its effect but week to week you would miss far too many betting opportunities factoring it in. Taking any single seasons results can show a variation in the favorite returns figure between 39% (2005) to 47% (2003) That 47% figure is > 2.5 st.d. positive variance. You wouldn't explain much of that checking the going during the season.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races
Grp 2 Lowther stakes is a red hot fav. market.
I went with the 3 runner Dutch Frame with the fav Targeted. Obviously the return @ 65 is pretty modest compared with backing the fav. for a 20+ return on the nose? In this market also the 2 runner dutch frame does cover 83.6% Bk val. with a better @ 95 return but in a group race I prefer to take the larger frame.
Sit back and watch if next years Guineas fav. take her race comfortably?
The Grp 1 later has Found a good favorite - but not on her best ground? So I've settled for the fav-hedge bet on the 6 runner Dutch Frame as per the screen shot.
If she doesn't get turned over the return is @ 45 on the hedge withthe 6 runner Dutch Frame covering 85.8% of the Bk.
You can in this market stretch the Dutch Frame to cover 7 runners and Target 3 or 4 at a smaller return. But there's been one high priced winner of this Grp 1 at 25\1 over the past 22year record, so I'm ok with fav-hedge bet on the 6?
Two very different markets.
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Both favs. turned over then.
So no return on the Grp 2 Fair Eva race - a bit tame in 3rd place there? But good to watch them fight it out in the Grp 1 not minding which of three prevailed in the final half furlong. Seventh heaven fought off the challenge of Found and brought the bacon home for me!!
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races
Terrific cards at the York festival this week. Todays Grp1 Juddmonte is certainly to tough for me to unravel!
We can get a six runner Dutch Frame on this years race and it would have covered every winner over the last 22 yrs. until Mr Elsworth broke the trend last year turning over hot pot Golden Horn with a 50/1 winner!!
Still its a solid prospect. In the Group races I always check out the trends, but this year has returned excellent results (so far ) on the big races.
I do like the top 3 in the betting and will Target bet the three at @95 return with the other three cover break even bets .
Here is the equal return on the six runner frame - return @65 with Bk value 88% on the Dutch Frame - RH side can see the 6th in the market take us through th 82.5% Bk base line.
If you're hook-line-sinker for Postponed, Target bet on the fav. alone returns @ 160 currently?
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***Surprising both Postponed & Highland reel drifted before the off. Finished 1-2 in market order, Postponed had it in the form book and proved it pretty stylishly. Now 6 wins on the bounce and unbeaten over twelve months in Grp1 or 2 and drifts! ***
The other two York Group races were No Bets for me today.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races
At the Curragh today's Group 1 is obviously unplayable with 4 taking on Carravagio.
The 16;05 Group 3 gives us a 4 runner Dutch Frame. I have put up the "fav_Hedge" figures, I think the favorite is beatable and hope one of the three older horses in the frame upto Fort del Oro will do the turn over on the talking , but failing 3yo?
We have 87.3% of the Book in the Frame with 4 of the 7 runner field.
Through the end of July - early August the markets have really had a settled period for me - I'll put the current figures up later.
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Dutch Shape of the Market
Goodwood Festival
I didn't put up the Frame for the Gp1 Nasseu stakes today . It produced a 2 runner Dutch frame to bet but Its almost an insult to 'Minding' to dutch the race. I think the first filly for many many years to take the race?
H
ere are the 13 no: group races from the week at Goodwood. I was able to lay 9 of the 13 group events. One of the eliminate races would have been a losing Dutch bet.
If you check back the stats the Book Value on this losing 5 runner Group 2 was 80.3% on the 2 runner Dutch Frame. Eliminated below the 82,5% threshold. The 3 runner frame was not achievable below the minimum return, the third in the market took the race.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
The main Gp2 race at Goodwood today is a very open market where the Dutch Frame stretches to 10 runners.
Screen shot shows the standard margin bet , but targeting a few of the runners in the frame increases this.
Favorite @ 6.42 representing only 15% of the book. Anyones race?
In the screen shot I've circled the 9 and 10 runners at the back of the frame. You can see the 9 runners hit the 82.5 Book minimum - but in these Group races I like to cover the max. Frame possible, so take the 10 runner frame.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
The earlier Gp2 race at Goodwood today is a 2 runner Dutch Frame 'No Bet'
here is the 'Frame for the Goodwood Cup 15;10 race
we have an 8no: runner Dutch frame to work with. Some Targeting amongst the eight for a better return?
The seventh in the market is just scraping the 82.5 Bk line. The 8 no: frame covers 88.6 Book and we should have the winner in there!
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
Goodwoods Gp1 Sussex stakes looks red hot to me, I couldn't make a selection on the nose.
Screen shot shows the available 5 runner Dutch frame - i've taken the Margin bet format. i.e. the 5th Runner in the frame is a cover bet at break-even
You can see from the circled graphic the 4 runners clip the 82.5% book value threshold. In group races we definately need to default to the largest achievable frame - so I take the 5 runner dutch.
On the race trend this covers the winners price over 15 of the 16 recorded races since 2000.
So I've no idea what will win but have 90% book value on the Dutch Frame - confident a couple from my frame will be fighting it out?
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
Here are the Shape of Market graphic to show how different these markets are.
In the Group 1 Ascot 16;30 I've put the equal 4 runner Dutch Frame figures up. In the 7 runner field we have 4 in the frame @ 65 return. Book value 88.2
In the York Group2 15;35 I've put the fav Target Bet Return up @60. We have a 3 runner Dutch frame in the 5 runner field. Book value on the Frame is 90.9
The third Group race at 14;45 is a 'No Bet' race I've put it up to show the difference in the Market. We have a one horse fav. dominated market. Although we can cover it with 6 other runners in the Dutch Frame, it should be clear these 6 in the market are not significantly better placed than the remainder to win - if the favorite slips up? So even though the Dutch book is 86.5 this race fails the Shape of Market filters.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Irish Oaks Gp1
We can cover a 6 runner Dutch Frame in the Group1 at the Curragh
There is only an 8yr record available for the race with a longest priced winner at 10/1.
If you consider O'briens Royal Ascot winner a shoe in - can still Target it at 100 return as per the screen shot.
If you prefer to target 3 runners there is at least 75 return, depending on your selections.
Dutch Shape of the Market
July Results.
I've had a pretty good start to July Took
2 no: Losing bets yesterday though.
So over the eight days my profit is £1,623 with a total 5 no: losses off 73 bets placed.
When it seems a bit of a grind making the money I just think about the garbage continually arriving in my mail box. It seems worse than ever at the moment?
Today's Live Bets.
There's plenty of racing today! The going is good or better everywhere except Chester. Plenty of maiden races to cover. After a poor return earlier in the season these have got back now to the normal strike rate.
Here are the 19 potential race selections for the day.
If you use Gruss software you should be able to set up the quick pick list identifying them and export them to spreadsheet. It's easy enough?
Three Group races - I will probably end up taking on all three of them, but currently the favorities in the Ascot 15;15 Grp2 & the Newmarket 16;35 Grp1 are not tight enough Expect these markets will both firm up later on.
Lets look at the Newmarket 16;00 Grp 2 . There's a firm FTO fav, from O'brien and we have a Dutch Frame available covering 6 of the 10 runners. I will be Targeting the top 3 in the betting with a return currently @ 80.
A quick check on the race history (Courtesy Sporting life stats)
There's been only 1 winner (perhaps just 2?) outside my dutch frame in the 22 years winner trend. That's good enough for me! Mick Channon managed to get the outsider of a field of just 7 runners @33/1 in 2006 on good to firm, no excuses. It happens!
First 6 Month 2016 Update
I'm somewhat off the 35k Target at the end of the first 6 months of this year with a P/L figure around 14k.
I did manage to add 3k+ of additional target bets.
There have been two changes to the markets this year which I consider have affected results.
First a continuing reduction in field sizes; This has negative effects on the number of races that can be selected + reduces the proportion of bets that can be covered with the fav-hedge format returning 100 on wins.
Secondly the switch around this season from Maidens over to Nov Stakes framed races. I haven't analyzed this on the AW yet or adjusted AW selections. On the turf I took in the Nov stakes races and for whatever reason their has been a dramatic downside on returns from Maiden races whilst the stakes category boasted some good profits?
Here are the spreadsheet figures on the 30 June
You can see there were 5 or 6 sharp drawdowns to bet through off the 6 month chart.
The heaviest is marked up over the 4 days in April with a Loss @ 3,300. Its essential to take the Risk of Ruin bankroll figures I put up seriously.
The chart at the end of June flat-lined - almost certainly going related and there were one or two days during which there were rapid changes in going between morning and race time. A wiser punter would have swerved them??
The following is a quick analysis of the returns by each type of race used in the selections.
Three or Four notes:
- A really poor 6 months off Novice Hurdles were the reduced fields killed off profits.
- The AW does not include the Nov stakes races into the selections so far this year.
- The return on turf Maidens is exceptionally low compared to the prior 10 year rolling stats. (conversely the AW Maidens played out very well over the summer months?)
- 6 months is far too short to consider any adjustments to race types selected and filters. Maiden hurdles as an example have delivered strongly after a poor period during 2015.
Looking for the second half of the year to get me back on track for the 35k Target? A few less serious draw-downs if I'm lucky?
Its tough when they happen, but trying to make money on Betfair is tough full stop. There's a lot more talk than reality on the subject?
Using the long term stats on race selection and then checking each Market is within statistical boundaries (filters) are the only sure way I know to maintain confidence in a long term edge.
'Know your Edge' and stay well into comfort zone on bankroll units.
Royal Ascot - Round up.
I've added in Saturdays Results in the table below
I had a great day out at Ascot myself yesterday, it wasn't easy to find winners and I relied mostly on early placed Dutch bets and Target bets in the 4 non handicap races. Ryan Moore was red hot and that willy old Stoute slipped one in for the Queen, I doubt she had much problem surviving the stewards inquiry!!
There were an additional 4 potential race selections on the Saturday card - two of which met the live criteria.
- So this year there were 2 no: Losing Dutch frames. One of which we swerved applying the long term price trend filter. (Last year there was 1 no Losing frame which we avoided to keep a clean sheet)
Considering the ground this week its a surprising result for the best profit coming off Targeting the favorites only with a 435 return.
The one losing Dutch bet was Aiden O'briens Sword Fighter holding off all comers from the front in the Queens Vase. His 3rd string runner @ 53.1 BFsp - 60+ before the off. Whats going on there Mr O'brien?? Almost certainly a soft ground result over the 2 miles, nothing able to run on from the back?
These may seem modest profits, whats to shout about? Playing the Dutch Frames without Targeting 234 return - a lot of punters will have done much better?
Remember this site is to demonstrate that its possible to generate a purely statistical edge against the Betfair market. A mathematical edge generated off long term data which you can rely on to hold good when the going gets tough.
The 234 return on the week involves no personal judgement calls. If you can Target bet selections successfully within the Dutch Frame and improve your returns - so much the better?
Royal Ascot Saturday
Final Day
I'll have to put up today's Ascot Dutch Results after racing tonight, got to get out on the road too early to the races myself this morning.
We got hit by a losing bet yesterday in the final Listed race. O'briens 3rd string fending off all the fancied runners from the front at odds @ 60.0 (53.1 BFsp!)
However its still a profit on the week and you can see from the results below that the rest of the cards delivered a pretty good profit on the day, loss taken in.
I had a couple of Target bets added in, but only one of these winning. Overall a lot of racing and a good day for me.
Sometimes little fish are sweeter?
Royal Ascot Friday
Coronation Stakes Day
Five potential races to Dutch on the final day. I am leaving out the 15;40 as there is no trend history to this new addition last year. It does however meet the Shape of Market filters ok for the brave.
Here are the figures for the remaining four - and my own Targeting on the 16;20 Coronation Stakes where we have every runner below @ 40 in the Dutch Frame for this top of the card event. Out of the 8 runner Dutch Frame I am leaving 5 Targeted - keeping the return above 100, I don't feel any strong fancy to any of them, looks pretty wide open to me!
I'll post the full weeks results later.
Royal Ascot Day 3
Managed to swerve the 16;20 yesterday where the Japanese hotpot raider finished last on the tiring Ascot ground and the outsider of the six took the spoils!
So managed to keep a clean sheet.
- Today I'm going to stay with the two races where we have the long term price trend covered - Ribblesdale Stakes 15;40 and Gold Cup 16;20
The standard Shape of the Market filters allow all 4 selected races the go ahead (assuming the price gap is there near the off)
But I'll stick with the more cautious assessment for today.
The Dutch Frame sizes for all 4 no: race selections are below.
Personnally I'll just be targeting Order of St George + Max Dynamite in the gold cup Dutch Frame.
The Ribblesdale fillies race I'm lost on - even The Black Princess looks in with a serious shout on my figures - 7th in the Dutch Frame!
Good luck with your own bets for ladies day.
