Dutch Shape of the Market
Goodwood Festival
I didn't put up the Frame for the Gp1 Nasseu stakes today . It produced a 2 runner Dutch frame to bet but Its almost an insult to 'Minding' to dutch the race. I think the first filly for many many years to take the race?
H
ere are the 13 no: group races from the week at Goodwood. I was able to lay 9 of the 13 group events. One of the eliminate races would have been a losing Dutch bet.
If you check back the stats the Book Value on this losing 5 runner Group 2 was 80.3% on the 2 runner Dutch Frame. Eliminated below the 82,5% threshold. The 3 runner frame was not achievable below the minimum return, the third in the market took the race.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
The main Gp2 race at Goodwood today is a very open market where the Dutch Frame stretches to 10 runners.
Screen shot shows the standard margin bet , but targeting a few of the runners in the frame increases this.
Favorite @ 6.42 representing only 15% of the book. Anyones race?
In the screen shot I've circled the 9 and 10 runners at the back of the frame. You can see the 9 runners hit the 82.5 Book minimum - but in these Group races I like to cover the max. Frame possible, so take the 10 runner frame.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
The earlier Gp2 race at Goodwood today is a 2 runner Dutch Frame 'No Bet'
here is the 'Frame for the Goodwood Cup 15;10 race
we have an 8no: runner Dutch frame to work with. Some Targeting amongst the eight for a better return?
The seventh in the market is just scraping the 82.5 Bk line. The 8 no: frame covers 88.6 Book and we should have the winner in there!
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
Goodwoods Gp1 Sussex stakes looks red hot to me, I couldn't make a selection on the nose.
Screen shot shows the available 5 runner Dutch frame - i've taken the Margin bet format. i.e. the 5th Runner in the frame is a cover bet at break-even
You can see from the circled graphic the 4 runners clip the 82.5% book value threshold. In group races we definately need to default to the largest achievable frame - so I take the 5 runner dutch.
On the race trend this covers the winners price over 15 of the 16 recorded races since 2000.
So I've no idea what will win but have 90% book value on the Dutch Frame - confident a couple from my frame will be fighting it out?
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Group Races.
Here are the Shape of Market graphic to show how different these markets are.
In the Group 1 Ascot 16;30 I've put the equal 4 runner Dutch Frame figures up. In the 7 runner field we have 4 in the frame @ 65 return. Book value 88.2
In the York Group2 15;35 I've put the fav Target Bet Return up @60. We have a 3 runner Dutch frame in the 5 runner field. Book value on the Frame is 90.9
The third Group race at 14;45 is a 'No Bet' race I've put it up to show the difference in the Market. We have a one horse fav. dominated market. Although we can cover it with 6 other runners in the Dutch Frame, it should be clear these 6 in the market are not significantly better placed than the remainder to win - if the favorite slips up? So even though the Dutch book is 86.5 this race fails the Shape of Market filters.
Dutch Shape of the Market
Today's Irish Oaks Gp1
We can cover a 6 runner Dutch Frame in the Group1 at the Curragh
There is only an 8yr record available for the race with a longest priced winner at 10/1.
If you consider O'briens Royal Ascot winner a shoe in - can still Target it at 100 return as per the screen shot.
If you prefer to target 3 runners there is at least 75 return, depending on your selections.
Dutch Shape of the Market
July Results.
I've had a pretty good start to July Took
2 no: Losing bets yesterday though.
So over the eight days my profit is £1,623 with a total 5 no: losses off 73 bets placed.
When it seems a bit of a grind making the money I just think about the garbage continually arriving in my mail box. It seems worse than ever at the moment?
Today's Live Bets.
There's plenty of racing today! The going is good or better everywhere except Chester. Plenty of maiden races to cover. After a poor return earlier in the season these have got back now to the normal strike rate.
Here are the 19 potential race selections for the day.
If you use Gruss software you should be able to set up the quick pick list identifying them and export them to spreadsheet. It's easy enough?
Three Group races - I will probably end up taking on all three of them, but currently the favorities in the Ascot 15;15 Grp2 & the Newmarket 16;35 Grp1 are not tight enough Expect these markets will both firm up later on.
Lets look at the Newmarket 16;00 Grp 2 . There's a firm FTO fav, from O'brien and we have a Dutch Frame available covering 6 of the 10 runners. I will be Targeting the top 3 in the betting with a return currently @ 80.
A quick check on the race history (Courtesy Sporting life stats)
There's been only 1 winner (perhaps just 2?) outside my dutch frame in the 22 years winner trend. That's good enough for me! Mick Channon managed to get the outsider of a field of just 7 runners @33/1 in 2006 on good to firm, no excuses. It happens!
First 6 Month 2016 Update
I'm somewhat off the 35k Target at the end of the first 6 months of this year with a P/L figure around 14k.
I did manage to add 3k+ of additional target bets.
There have been two changes to the markets this year which I consider have affected results.
First a continuing reduction in field sizes; This has negative effects on the number of races that can be selected + reduces the proportion of bets that can be covered with the fav-hedge format returning 100 on wins.
Secondly the switch around this season from Maidens over to Nov Stakes framed races. I haven't analyzed this on the AW yet or adjusted AW selections. On the turf I took in the Nov stakes races and for whatever reason their has been a dramatic downside on returns from Maiden races whilst the stakes category boasted some good profits?
Here are the spreadsheet figures on the 30 June
You can see there were 5 or 6 sharp drawdowns to bet through off the 6 month chart.
The heaviest is marked up over the 4 days in April with a Loss @ 3,300. Its essential to take the Risk of Ruin bankroll figures I put up seriously.
The chart at the end of June flat-lined - almost certainly going related and there were one or two days during which there were rapid changes in going between morning and race time. A wiser punter would have swerved them??
The following is a quick analysis of the returns by each type of race used in the selections.
Three or Four notes:
- A really poor 6 months off Novice Hurdles were the reduced fields killed off profits.
- The AW does not include the Nov stakes races into the selections so far this year.
- The return on turf Maidens is exceptionally low compared to the prior 10 year rolling stats. (conversely the AW Maidens played out very well over the summer months?)
- 6 months is far too short to consider any adjustments to race types selected and filters. Maiden hurdles as an example have delivered strongly after a poor period during 2015.
Looking for the second half of the year to get me back on track for the 35k Target? A few less serious draw-downs if I'm lucky?
Its tough when they happen, but trying to make money on Betfair is tough full stop. There's a lot more talk than reality on the subject?
Using the long term stats on race selection and then checking each Market is within statistical boundaries (filters) are the only sure way I know to maintain confidence in a long term edge.
'Know your Edge' and stay well into comfort zone on bankroll units.
Royal Ascot - Round up.
I've added in Saturdays Results in the table below
I had a great day out at Ascot myself yesterday, it wasn't easy to find winners and I relied mostly on early placed Dutch bets and Target bets in the 4 non handicap races. Ryan Moore was red hot and that willy old Stoute slipped one in for the Queen, I doubt she had much problem surviving the stewards inquiry!!
There were an additional 4 potential race selections on the Saturday card - two of which met the live criteria.
- So this year there were 2 no: Losing Dutch frames. One of which we swerved applying the long term price trend filter. (Last year there was 1 no Losing frame which we avoided to keep a clean sheet)
Considering the ground this week its a surprising result for the best profit coming off Targeting the favorites only with a 435 return.
The one losing Dutch bet was Aiden O'briens Sword Fighter holding off all comers from the front in the Queens Vase. His 3rd string runner @ 53.1 BFsp - 60+ before the off. Whats going on there Mr O'brien?? Almost certainly a soft ground result over the 2 miles, nothing able to run on from the back?
These may seem modest profits, whats to shout about? Playing the Dutch Frames without Targeting 234 return - a lot of punters will have done much better?
Remember this site is to demonstrate that its possible to generate a purely statistical edge against the Betfair market. A mathematical edge generated off long term data which you can rely on to hold good when the going gets tough.
The 234 return on the week involves no personal judgement calls. If you can Target bet selections successfully within the Dutch Frame and improve your returns - so much the better?
Royal Ascot Saturday
Final Day
I'll have to put up today's Ascot Dutch Results after racing tonight, got to get out on the road too early to the races myself this morning.
We got hit by a losing bet yesterday in the final Listed race. O'briens 3rd string fending off all the fancied runners from the front at odds @ 60.0 (53.1 BFsp!)
However its still a profit on the week and you can see from the results below that the rest of the cards delivered a pretty good profit on the day, loss taken in.
I had a couple of Target bets added in, but only one of these winning. Overall a lot of racing and a good day for me.
Sometimes little fish are sweeter?
Royal Ascot Friday
Coronation Stakes Day
Five potential races to Dutch on the final day. I am leaving out the 15;40 as there is no trend history to this new addition last year. It does however meet the Shape of Market filters ok for the brave.
Here are the figures for the remaining four - and my own Targeting on the 16;20 Coronation Stakes where we have every runner below @ 40 in the Dutch Frame for this top of the card event. Out of the 8 runner Dutch Frame I am leaving 5 Targeted - keeping the return above 100, I don't feel any strong fancy to any of them, looks pretty wide open to me!
I'll post the full weeks results later.
Royal Ascot Day 3
Managed to swerve the 16;20 yesterday where the Japanese hotpot raider finished last on the tiring Ascot ground and the outsider of the six took the spoils!
So managed to keep a clean sheet.
- Today I'm going to stay with the two races where we have the long term price trend covered - Ribblesdale Stakes 15;40 and Gold Cup 16;20
The standard Shape of the Market filters allow all 4 selected races the go ahead (assuming the price gap is there near the off)
But I'll stick with the more cautious assessment for today.
The Dutch Frame sizes for all 4 no: race selections are below.
Personnally I'll just be targeting Order of St George + Max Dynamite in the gold cup Dutch Frame.
The Ribblesdale fillies race I'm lost on - even The Black Princess looks in with a serious shout on my figures - 7th in the Dutch Frame!
Good luck with your own bets for ladies day.
Royal Ascot Day 2
Galileo Gold did me a favour yesterday and took the St. James Palace Stakes convincingly. Thank you frankie dettori for a good 530 return Target Bet!!
- On day two I'm down to just playing the two races 14;30 + 15;05
The 15;40 fillies race does make it on the normal Shape of Market filters I use , but has thrown up a num,ber of whacky results in the past?
The 16;20 Prince of Wales Stakes 3 runner Dutch Frame meets the Trend criteria with 100% cover on the winner record. But the ground must be worsening despite the dry morning and this race gets eliminated on my normal Shape of Market filters, so I'm going to swerve it. Obviously the Japanese horse has a fantastic record but Ascot is very very tough in the soft?
I had a good first day - although really needed that 13 runner Dutch Frame in the final race! So If I get 2 more Dutch Wins today quite happy in the conditions.
In the 14;30 opener I ended up just taking the <12.0 Target bet.
In the 15;05 sprint 15;05 I Targeted 5 from the 10 runner frame. The fav Lady Aurelia just blasted them all away - American Sprinters!!
Royal Ascot Day 1
Unusually the first day of the Ascot festival is facing grey skys and Soft going.
This is producing some very generous market envelopes for Dutching.
You've probably got a mail box stuffed with fantastic advice from every self proclaimed expert on the planet!
Here is my table of Targets for Day 1 Dutching 4 no: races.
Off the record over the past 22 years we have dutch frames covering 100%/95%/90% against the winning mark trends. The competitive 16;20 St James Palace Stakes is only a 3 runner Dutch Frame - My own preference is to target Galileo Gold in this race on a return @530
RH side of the table shows some typical target bet returns.
Of the 4 races highlighted only two actually pass the standard Shape of the market filters, but I am going to take all 4 and sit back for the days racing, although its heart over judgement involving in the 22 runner 17;35 listed!
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Here is my own 4 runner Target bet for the first race keeping the return just over the 100 mark, covering Belardo, Endless Drama,Esterique & Kodi Bear. I make no claims my selections are better than anyone elses - choose your own targets!
Good luck with your bets on day 1.
An Open Derby field?
We can cover 10 of the 16 runner field today for a return of @60.
I have targeted 4 runners myself as below, the remainder cover bets?
On the stats our Dutch Frame covers the winners price in 21 of the last 22 runnings. The one exception High Rise's win at 20/1 in 1998.
Target Bet the Dutch Frame with your 4 or 5 Top Listed? Of course if you're sure you know the winner don't bother :)
Results comparison; YTD Jan 1 - May 31
A quick look at the graph below shows the first 5 months of the year - I am way off the pace from 2015 - so whats going on?
First here are the raw numbers.
YTD 2015 profit at 31 May 17,222
YTD 2016 profit at 31 May 12,064.
The first 3 months of the year were very slow and a series of drawdowns larger than those in the same period in 2015.
I've added at the bottom of the table one factor which is probably contributing to the downside.
The ave. number of runners in the selected races is down again, this year at 8.6 and this factor influences strongly the number of fav_Hedge bets that can be included. This bet configuration is important to keep the Expectation per bet up
and reduced field sizes are problematic.
So is there any adjustment to these 2016 returns so far?
One change I have made in my own approach is to increase the number of additional Target Bets. These have generated a profit boost of @ 3,300 YTD. I'll post some details on this. A second smaller adjustment is to include a higheer percentage of Margin Bets. What are margin bets again?? I'll post up a review of the various bet configurations.
My only other tactic is to be correctly banrolled and trust the Edge to overcome the volatility in the longer term! Sometimes this is severly tested and you do really need to know your Edge is there and solid - but that applies to any attempt to take money comnsistently out of the exchange markets.
