Tuesday 5 April

Results Jan 1 - Mar 31

It was a tough three months trying to make it pay for me.  harsh drawdown in mid january took the rolling figure to -2,244 so just nabaged to get back thro' break even at the end of jan. Another hard draw doen in early March tyhen a clean run up to the month end!
In total 422 dutch bets placed and rolling P/L 3,779 - way off the year end target.

Obviously draw downs happen but grinding worthwhile profit back in is made much more difficult by the huge number of depleted fields these days over the winter months. 

I have attempted to counter this by stepping up the number of additional Target bets placed, with some success.

 I'll breakdown the race type figures for the three months later.

. 

saturday 27 feb

Dutch Lite Bets

Jan & Feb have continued to be a real grind for me with very little to show for it. As of yesterday 208 bets placed and barely a job seeker's allowance for it! 
Hopefully soon the pace will pick up - the strike rate back above the 90% mark, more settled conditions and most importantly of all some improved field sizes. Just too many races with 4 - 6 runners and no opportunity to get a return?

Today's Pre-List.

Only 3 no: runners for the £12k novice chase on a Saturday at Newcastle. Kempton not much better! The NH industry really is in the grips of recession.
At least we have 11 races potentially to cover today.


















Live Bets:

Only 3 no: for me Live at this stage. I might take another look at the Navan 15;30 novice chase - see if the market cristalizes into a Live frame near the off.

I managed to pick up two additional races later in the card. The Navan 15;30 did settle into a Live Dutch frame nearer the off and also 16;30 maiden formed a playable 2 runner frame, which wasn't the case earlier. So an ok saturday's turnover.

saturday 13 feb

Dutch Lite Bets

The first few weeks of the year have been pretty desperate for me with conditions and reduced fields making it hard to take profit. Just about keeping head above water - but much the same on today,s cards.

Today's Live Bets.


Even the Saturday cards are pretty low calibre and wiped out fields. At the moment, out of 12 race selections I am down to just 3 Live opportunities at the moment

friday 5 february

Dutch Lite Bets


Yesterday's Results.


Took a loss  yesterday in the 14;25 Clonmel with 5th in the market coming in against the 4 runner Frame I put up. Willie Mullins took the race with his second string & Ruby Walsh up @ 16's. Can do without that Mr Mullins!
(both horses Cheltenham entries, one fav, other 16's? and top jock)



Today's Live Bets.

•  3 no: bets for me off the afternoon cards with a lot of races filtered out.

***The 13;40 race market has moved and is now a Live 2 runner Dutch Frame; return @ 79 - IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES TO THE OFF - FRAME PRICE GAP TOO SMALL, SO LEAVE IT***

 *** SIMILAR MOVE IN THE 14;10 - OK TO TAKE ON ATO ***

thursday 4 feb

Dutch Lite Bets


Today's Live Bets.

•  7 no: bets for me off the afternoon cards. 16;15 need to check the price gap later.

wed 3 feb

Dutch Lite Bets

Here is todays Pre-List race selection.
 

 
If your not familiar with the gruss Betting Assistant software - here's how to set up the pre list automatically in the gruss Quick pick listing.
Its simple enough to match up through all NH/turf/AW. The only variant will be the Quick pick list will include the races with only 2 or 3 runners. 

Today's cards:

First four races off today's cards

• Update added for remainder of cards

february 2

Dutch Lite Bets

Of the four races yesterday the 14;50 Frame drifted out and didn't need to use the margin bet near the off. fav. won, so either way. Also I marked up the 16;45 as a fav_hedge bet. This market tightened up and you could only get the 5 runner frame as a straight Dutch later. Good fortune because the fav. took it.

Today down to three races and only two of these playable. Admittedly you could take on the 2 runner frame in the 4 runner claimer, but I wouldn't advise it?

Today's Pre-List:

• 14;45 Taunton - 2 runner Dutch Frame - I'm taking this one early as I expect the return to dissappear.

• 15;30 Sthw - 3 runner Dutch Frame - again I'm taking this one early. The racings just not worth hanging around for!

I've added full 2015 Results to the RH side Page index

Monday 1 february

Dutch Lite Bets

I was knocked out with a viral infection for nearly two weesks early Jan - so decided to throw the towel in on January. As it turned out the results were not great so no great loss for me.


Will update the year end + jan results over next 24 hrs Won't be putting up so many Live bets this year but hope to cover the principles in more detail. 

Today's Pre-List:

Four potential races today 

• 13;35 Plumpton - is a standard 3 runner Dutch Frame

• 14;35 Wolv - another standard 3 runner Dutch Frame

• 14;50 Kempton - requires the margin Bet to achioeve the 3 runner Dutch frame (Margin bet with 3rd in market taken at break even as a cover bet only)

• 16;45 Wolv - 5 runner Dutch Frame using the fav_hedge bet ( the favorite is currently hedged  

Here is my screen shot for the 14;35 The Dutch Frame on this race is unbalanced with 4 runners below the Pivot Price of 12.5 But only three of thes in the Frame Frome the RH chart we can see the 3 runner frame is clear of the 82.5% probability threshold. On these 4-3 Dutch Frames there is a retun Cap of 85 _ and if the frame drifts through this nearer to the off it is a No Bet. Even though there is a good Price Gap of 5.3 on the frame - can't take these particular bets until ATO.

Saturday 2 Jan

Dutch Lite Bets

Xmas break over Happy New Year.

I will put up the results for the racing days over xmas and full year results summary this weekend.
I may not post as many live days this year - but instead attempt to make the Dutching methods more accessible for anyone to be able to mould into their own betting interests.
Last year I wanted mostly to lay down a large sample of live bets to verify that if you work at it the long term edge is there. 
Obviously trawling  through last years blogs there is a lot of information mixed in with the Live daily listings, disjointed and a bit of effort required.

Yesterday got the new year off ok - with eight playable Dutch Frames

Today's Pre-List & Yesterday's Results:

•  7no: race selection Pre-List today, short for Saturday racing.

 Today's Live 
All 7 no: races are potential live bets today 
Three of these are 'Margin' Bets currently - with the last selection in the frame taken at break even, to achieve the min. 45 return 

•  Sandown 12;05 - 2 runner Dutch Frame, I have taken the standard Dutch Bet @ 56 return off my standard 485 Dutch spread.

sunday 20 december

Dutch Lite Bets

Yesterday's results summary + today's cards

Yesterday I was at Ascot couldn't post Live. I wont be doing many more Live shows between now and New Year.
Will keep the results updated.



Afternoon potential Frames:

•  5no: potential frames off today's cards.

friday 18 december

Dutch Lite Bets

Yesterday's results summary + early races today



Afternoon potential Frames:

•  4no: potential frames off the earlier races

Update:

thursday 17 december

Dutch Lite Bets




Afternoon potential Frames:

•  6no: potential frames off the earlier races

*** The 13;30 Sthw is an additional Live Bet now with the 3 runner Dutch Frame***

Update @ 15;45 for later card:

Just the 1 no: extra frame on the update. If the return on the Dutch Frame falls below the minimum, take the Margin Bet if possible. Two runner frame - No Bet

Earlier there was a loss in the 15;20 Extr + a No Bet in the 14;20 race.

wednesday 16 december

Dutch Lite Bets

Some Results still to go in from yesterday.

Afternoon potential Frames:

Early results and Update:


Have included yesterday's later results in the update.
Yesterday's kemp 16;10 was a losing bet.  

• 4 no: ppotential Dutch Frames off the later races today. 

tuesday 15 december

Dutch Lite Bets



Afternoon potential Frames:

***12;45 Catterick is No Bet if the Return value remains > 85 (currently it ha moved to @ 95. So the market on the front 3 needs to tighten uup again before the off) If it drifts a lot more and a 4 runner frame becomes a live possibility this would remain a Live Bet.
 

 
Update for AW 14;45:

monday 14 december

Dutch Lite Bets



Afternoon potential Frames:

***13;20 Plumpton has tightened to a 3 runner Frame - remains a Live Bet***
*** Also 14;15 Nav down to a 2 runner Frame - remaining a Live Bet***

Update today @ 15;15:

No Bet in the earlier 12;25 race & a loss in the 13;10 
In the additional late frames the 14;15 is only Live if the return is 100 maximum or less. If it remains above the mark No Bet.

sunday 13 december

Dutch Lite Bets

Been a good run for me (42 win Frames since 4th Dec) crashed yesterday. Hopefully not a change of fortune?

Hot fav. US Navy Seal in the 14;50 Southwell runner maiden shot at right angles out of the centre stall - whacked his rival, jinked away  - and left George Baker on the floor. Looked painful too!
Only a 2 runner Dutch Frame so left with an on the nose bet to the second fav. who couldn't stay the trip, leaving outsider of the five to take it. Random Events - a fall on the flat after all those NH races come in!!

Saturday Results round-up

Sunday potential Dutch Frames

Update:
Couple "What If's" on the Update.

• The 14;05 Navan looks like falling below the 45 min. Return. If so the 3 runner frame is No Bet.
• The 14;55 Southwell is struggling for a fav. If the Fav. > 2.70 the race is No Bet.

 

saturday 12 december

Dutch Lite Bets

I've split the cards with an update in time for the Doncaster 14;05 today

Saturday potential Dutch Frames

• 3 no: early potential Frames currently. On the three runner frames it may be necessary to use the Margin Bet.

Here is the Margin Bet on the Chelt 12;05 - Outsider of the three runner Frame hedged down to break even to maintain a return - target @ 50+ on the fav. and 2nd fav.
 

Update:

• 3 no: early additional Frames off the afternoon cards. 
• The return on the 14;05 is currently @80 not the 45 shown in the screen shot.

friday 11 december

Dutch Lite Bets

I'll update any market moves changing Dutch Frames today.

Friday potential Dutch Frames

• 3 no: potential Frames currently

***In the 14;05 Bang Nov Hdle the 3 runner Frame has dropped below the minimum return. The reduced 2 runner Frame still qualifies as a Live Bet.***

***The 14;20 Cheltenham has tightened to a 7 no: runner Dutch Frame - this now meet  criteria and is an additional Live Bet***

Update for Late Meets:

So 2 no: potential Late frames.
In the 18;00 Dundalk maiden we need a stable Price Gap to identify the Dutch Frame. 
Also this Frame may tighten down to 5 runners near the off - this also remains a Live Bet (with the Price gap stable)
 

thursday 10 december

Dutch Lite Bets

I'll update any market moves changing Dutch Frames today.



Thursday potential Dutch Frames

• 12;20 Newc race has tightened hard below the minimum return and is No Bet
• 13;10 Taunt has moved now to a Live Bet - 2 runner Dutch frame  current return @86
• 13;25 Punch (first Hunter Chase of season) Is a No Bet. The 7 runner frame has gone & the 6 runner frame is not Price Gapped. 

Afternoon Results + Update:

Good fortune on the afternoon as the No bet outcome on the 12;20 avoided a losing race.
The outsider of the four took the race.

• Two additional on the Chelm City card.

wednesday 9 december

Dutch Lite Bets





The completely saturated ground is thinning out racing opportunities at the moment
Yesterday there were 6 no: listed races, all of which fell within the Dutch Frame criteria. Of these four met the Shape of Market filters ok and took as Live Bets.
Only the one NH race today at Leicester - surprised the river Trent hasn't swamped the course there?


Wednesday's  Pre-List + Tuesday Results

• No Live Update Today. Back Live cover tomorrow