sat 2nd July

First 6 Month 2016 Update

I'm somewhat off the 35k Target at the end of the first 6 months of this year with a P/L figure around 14k.
I did manage to add 3k+ of additional target bets.
There have been two changes to the markets this year which I consider have affected results.
First a continuing reduction in field sizes; This has negative effects on the number of races that can be selected + reduces the proportion of bets that can be covered with the fav-hedge format returning 100 on wins.
Secondly the switch around this season from Maidens over to Nov Stakes framed races. I haven't analyzed this on the AW yet or adjusted AW selections. On the turf I took in the Nov stakes races and for whatever reason their has been a dramatic downside on returns from Maiden races whilst the stakes category boasted some good profits?

Here are the spreadsheet figures on the 30 June
 

  
You can see there were 5 or 6 sharp drawdowns to bet through off the 6 month chart.
The heaviest is marked up over the 4 days in April with a Loss @ 3,300. Its essential to take the Risk of Ruin bankroll figures I put up seriously.




The chart at the end of June flat-lined - almost certainly going related and there were one or two days during which there were rapid changes in going between morning and race time. A wiser punter would have swerved them??

 
The following is a quick analysis of the returns by each type of race used in the selections.
Three or Four notes:
  

• A really poor 6 months off Novice Hurdles were the reduced fields killed off profits.

• The AW does not include the Nov stakes races into the selections so far this year.

•  The return on turf Maidens is exceptionally low compared to the prior 10 year rolling stats. (conversely the AW Maidens played out very well over the summer months?)

•  6 months is far too short to consider any adjustments to race types selected and filters. Maiden hurdles as an example have delivered strongly after a poor period during 2015.

Looking for the second half of the year to get me back on track for the 35k Target? A few less serious draw-downs if I'm lucky?
Its tough when they happen, but trying to make money on Betfair is tough full stop. There's a lot more talk than reality on the subject?  

Using the long term stats on race selection and then checking each Market is within statistical boundaries (filters) are the only sure way I know to maintain confidence in a long term edge.

 'Know your Edge' and stay well into comfort zone on bankroll units.

sunday 19 june

Royal Ascot  - Round up.

I've added in Saturdays Results in the table below

I had a great day out at Ascot myself yesterday, it wasn't easy to find winners and I relied mostly on early placed Dutch bets and Target bets in the 4 non handicap races. Ryan Moore was red hot and that willy old Stoute slipped one in for the Queen, I doubt she had much problem surviving the stewards inquiry!!

There were an additional 4 potential race selections on the Saturday card - two of which met the live criteria.

•  So this year  there were 2 no: Losing Dutch frames. One of which we swerved applying the long term price trend filter. (Last year there was 1 no Losing frame which we avoided to keep a clean sheet)

Considering the ground this week its a surprising result for the best profit coming off Targeting the favorites only with a 435 return. 
The one losing Dutch bet was Aiden O'briens Sword Fighter holding off all comers from the front in the Queens Vase. His 3rd string runner @ 53.1 BFsp - 60+ before the off. Whats going on there Mr O'brien?? Almost certainly a soft ground result over the 2 miles, nothing able to run on from the back?

These may seem modest profits, whats to shout about? Playing the Dutch Frames without Targeting 234 return - a lot of punters will have done much better?

Remember this site is to demonstrate that its possible to generate a purely statistical edge against the Betfair market. A mathematical edge generated off long term data which you can rely on to hold good when the going gets tough.

The 234 return on the week involves no personal judgement calls. If you can Target bet selections successfully within the Dutch Frame and improve your returns - so much the better?

 

saturday 18 june

Royal Ascot  Saturday
Final Day

I'll have to put up today's Ascot Dutch Results after racing tonight, got to get out on the road too early to the races myself this morning.

We got hit by a losing bet yesterday in the final Listed race. O'briens 3rd string fending off all the fancied runners from the front at odds @ 60.0 (53.1 BFsp!)

However its still a profit on the week  and you can see from the results below that the rest of the cards delivered a pretty good profit on the day, loss taken in.
I had a couple of Target bets added in, but only one of these winning. Overall a lot of racing and a good day for me.
Sometimes little fish are sweeter?

friday 17 june

Royal Ascot  Friday 
Coronation Stakes Day

Five potential races to Dutch on the final day. I am leaving out the 15;40 as there is no trend history to this new addition last year. It does however meet the Shape of Market filters ok for the brave.


Here are the figures for the remaining four - and my own Targeting on the 16;20 Coronation Stakes where we have every runner below @ 40 in the Dutch Frame for this top of the card event. Out of the 8 runner Dutch Frame I am leaving 5 Targeted - keeping the return above 100, I don't feel any strong fancy to any of them, looks pretty wide open to me!

 I'll post the full weeks results later.

thursday 16 june

Royal Ascot Day 3

Managed to swerve the 16;20 yesterday where the Japanese hotpot raider finished last on the tiring Ascot ground and the outsider of the six took the spoils!
So managed to keep a clean sheet.

• Today I'm going to stay with the two races where we have the long term price trend covered - Ribblesdale Stakes 15;40 and Gold Cup 16;20

The standard Shape of the Market filters allow all 4 selected races the go ahead (assuming the price gap is there near the off)
But I'll stick with the more cautious assessment for today.
The Dutch Frame sizes for all 4 no: race selections are below.

Personnally I'll just be targeting Order of St George + Max Dynamite in the gold cup Dutch Frame.
The Ribblesdale fillies race I'm lost on - even The Black Princess looks in with a serious shout on my figures - 7th in the Dutch Frame!

Good luck with your own bets for ladies day.

Wednesday 15 june

Royal Ascot Day 2

Galileo Gold did me a favour yesterday and took the St. James Palace Stakes convincingly. Thank you frankie dettori for a good 530 return Target Bet!!

• On day two I'm down to just playing the two races 14;30 + 15;05 

The 15;40 fillies race does make it on the normal Shape of Market filters I use , but has thrown up a num,ber of whacky results in the past?
The 16;20 Prince of Wales Stakes 3 runner Dutch Frame meets the Trend criteria with 100% cover on the winner record. But the ground must be  worsening despite the dry morning and this race gets eliminated on my normal Shape of Market filters, so I'm going to swerve it. Obviously the Japanese horse has a fantastic record but Ascot is very very tough in the soft?

I had a good first day - although really needed that 13 runner Dutch Frame in the final race! So If I get 2 more Dutch Wins today quite happy in the conditions.

In the 14;30 opener I ended up just taking the <12.0 Target bet.

 


In the 15;05 sprint 15;05 I Targeted 5  from the 10 runner frame.  The fav Lady Aurelia just blasted them all away - American Sprinters!!

tuesday 14 june

Royal Ascot Day 1 

Unusually the first day of the Ascot festival is facing grey skys and Soft going.
This is producing some very generous market envelopes for Dutching.
You've probably got a mail box stuffed with fantastic advice from every self proclaimed expert on the planet!
Here is my table of Targets for Day 1 Dutching 4 no: races.

Off the record over the past 22 years we have dutch frames covering 100%/95%/90% against the winning mark trends. The competitive 16;20 St James Palace Stakes is only a 3 runner Dutch Frame - My own preference is to target Galileo Gold in this race on a return @530

RH side of the table shows some typical target bet returns.

Of the 4 races highlighted only two actually pass the standard Shape of the market filters, but I am going to take all 4 and sit back for the days racing, although its heart over judgement involving in the 22 runner 17;35 listed!
.

Here is my own 4 runner Target bet for the first race keeping the return just over the 100 mark, covering Belardo, Endless Drama,Esterique & Kodi Bear. I make no claims my selections are better than anyone elses - choose your own targets! 
Good luck with your bets on day 1.

Saturday 4 June

An Open Derby field?


We can cover 10 of the 16 runner field today for a return of @60.
I have targeted 4 runners myself as below, the remainder cover bets?

On the stats our Dutch Frame covers the winners price in 21 of the last 22 runnings. The one exception High Rise's win at 20/1 in 1998.

Target Bet the Dutch Frame with your 4 or 5 Top Listed? Of course if you're sure you know the winner don't bother :)

Friday 3 Jun

Results comparison; YTD Jan 1 - May 31

A quick look at the graph below shows the first 5 months of the year  - I am way off the pace from 2015 - so whats going on?

First here are the raw numbers. 
YTD 2015 profit at 31 May 17,222
YTD 2016 profit at 31 May 12,064.

The first 3 months of the year were very slow and a series of drawdowns larger than those in the same period in 2015. 

I've added at the bottom of the table one factor which is probably contributing to the downside. 
The ave. number of runners in the selected races is down again, this year at 8.6 and this factor influences strongly the number of fav_Hedge bets that can be included. This bet configuration is important to keep the Expectation per bet up
and reduced field sizes are problematic.

So is there any adjustment to these 2016 returns so far?

One change I have made in my own approach is to increase the number of additional Target Bets. These have generated a profit boost of @ 3,300 YTD. I'll post some  details on this.  A second smaller adjustment is to include a higheer percentage of Margin Bets. What are margin bets again?? I'll post up a review of the various bet configurations.

My only other tactic is to be correctly banrolled and trust the Edge to overcome the volatility in the longer term! Sometimes this is severly tested and you do really need to know your Edge is there and solid - but that applies to any attempt to take money comnsistently out of the exchange markets.

Tuesday 5 April

Results Jan 1 - Mar 31

It was a tough three months trying to make it pay for me.  harsh drawdown in mid january took the rolling figure to -2,244 so just nabaged to get back thro' break even at the end of jan. Another hard draw doen in early March tyhen a clean run up to the month end!
In total 422 dutch bets placed and rolling P/L 3,779 - way off the year end target.

Obviously draw downs happen but grinding worthwhile profit back in is made much more difficult by the huge number of depleted fields these days over the winter months. 

I have attempted to counter this by stepping up the number of additional Target bets placed, with some success.

 I'll breakdown the race type figures for the three months later.

. 

saturday 27 feb

Dutch Lite Bets

Jan & Feb have continued to be a real grind for me with very little to show for it. As of yesterday 208 bets placed and barely a job seeker's allowance for it! 
Hopefully soon the pace will pick up - the strike rate back above the 90% mark, more settled conditions and most importantly of all some improved field sizes. Just too many races with 4 - 6 runners and no opportunity to get a return?

Today's Pre-List.

Only 3 no: runners for the £12k novice chase on a Saturday at Newcastle. Kempton not much better! The NH industry really is in the grips of recession.
At least we have 11 races potentially to cover today.


















Live Bets:

Only 3 no: for me Live at this stage. I might take another look at the Navan 15;30 novice chase - see if the market cristalizes into a Live frame near the off.

I managed to pick up two additional races later in the card. The Navan 15;30 did settle into a Live Dutch frame nearer the off and also 16;30 maiden formed a playable 2 runner frame, which wasn't the case earlier. So an ok saturday's turnover.

saturday 13 feb

Dutch Lite Bets

The first few weeks of the year have been pretty desperate for me with conditions and reduced fields making it hard to take profit. Just about keeping head above water - but much the same on today,s cards.

Today's Live Bets.


Even the Saturday cards are pretty low calibre and wiped out fields. At the moment, out of 12 race selections I am down to just 3 Live opportunities at the moment

friday 5 february

Dutch Lite Bets


Yesterday's Results.


Took a loss  yesterday in the 14;25 Clonmel with 5th in the market coming in against the 4 runner Frame I put up. Willie Mullins took the race with his second string & Ruby Walsh up @ 16's. Can do without that Mr Mullins!
(both horses Cheltenham entries, one fav, other 16's? and top jock)



Today's Live Bets.

•  3 no: bets for me off the afternoon cards with a lot of races filtered out.

***The 13;40 race market has moved and is now a Live 2 runner Dutch Frame; return @ 79 - IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES TO THE OFF - FRAME PRICE GAP TOO SMALL, SO LEAVE IT***

 *** SIMILAR MOVE IN THE 14;10 - OK TO TAKE ON ATO ***

thursday 4 feb

Dutch Lite Bets


Today's Live Bets.

•  7 no: bets for me off the afternoon cards. 16;15 need to check the price gap later.

wed 3 feb

Dutch Lite Bets

Here is todays Pre-List race selection.
 

 
If your not familiar with the gruss Betting Assistant software - here's how to set up the pre list automatically in the gruss Quick pick listing.
Its simple enough to match up through all NH/turf/AW. The only variant will be the Quick pick list will include the races with only 2 or 3 runners. 

Today's cards:

First four races off today's cards

• Update added for remainder of cards

february 2

Dutch Lite Bets

Of the four races yesterday the 14;50 Frame drifted out and didn't need to use the margin bet near the off. fav. won, so either way. Also I marked up the 16;45 as a fav_hedge bet. This market tightened up and you could only get the 5 runner frame as a straight Dutch later. Good fortune because the fav. took it.

Today down to three races and only two of these playable. Admittedly you could take on the 2 runner frame in the 4 runner claimer, but I wouldn't advise it?

Today's Pre-List:

• 14;45 Taunton - 2 runner Dutch Frame - I'm taking this one early as I expect the return to dissappear.

• 15;30 Sthw - 3 runner Dutch Frame - again I'm taking this one early. The racings just not worth hanging around for!

I've added full 2015 Results to the RH side Page index

Monday 1 february

Dutch Lite Bets

I was knocked out with a viral infection for nearly two weesks early Jan - so decided to throw the towel in on January. As it turned out the results were not great so no great loss for me.


Will update the year end + jan results over next 24 hrs Won't be putting up so many Live bets this year but hope to cover the principles in more detail. 

Today's Pre-List:

Four potential races today 

• 13;35 Plumpton - is a standard 3 runner Dutch Frame

• 14;35 Wolv - another standard 3 runner Dutch Frame

• 14;50 Kempton - requires the margin Bet to achioeve the 3 runner Dutch frame (Margin bet with 3rd in market taken at break even as a cover bet only)

• 16;45 Wolv - 5 runner Dutch Frame using the fav_hedge bet ( the favorite is currently hedged  

Here is my screen shot for the 14;35 The Dutch Frame on this race is unbalanced with 4 runners below the Pivot Price of 12.5 But only three of thes in the Frame Frome the RH chart we can see the 3 runner frame is clear of the 82.5% probability threshold. On these 4-3 Dutch Frames there is a retun Cap of 85 _ and if the frame drifts through this nearer to the off it is a No Bet. Even though there is a good Price Gap of 5.3 on the frame - can't take these particular bets until ATO.

Saturday 2 Jan

Dutch Lite Bets

Xmas break over Happy New Year.

I will put up the results for the racing days over xmas and full year results summary this weekend.
I may not post as many live days this year - but instead attempt to make the Dutching methods more accessible for anyone to be able to mould into their own betting interests.
Last year I wanted mostly to lay down a large sample of live bets to verify that if you work at it the long term edge is there. 
Obviously trawling  through last years blogs there is a lot of information mixed in with the Live daily listings, disjointed and a bit of effort required.

Yesterday got the new year off ok - with eight playable Dutch Frames

Today's Pre-List & Yesterday's Results:

•  7no: race selection Pre-List today, short for Saturday racing.

 Today's Live 
All 7 no: races are potential live bets today 
Three of these are 'Margin' Bets currently - with the last selection in the frame taken at break even, to achieve the min. 45 return 

•  Sandown 12;05 - 2 runner Dutch Frame, I have taken the standard Dutch Bet @ 56 return off my standard 485 Dutch spread.