saturday 27 feb

Dutch Lite Bets

Jan & Feb have continued to be a real grind for me with very little to show for it. As of yesterday 208 bets placed and barely a job seeker's allowance for it! 
Hopefully soon the pace will pick up - the strike rate back above the 90% mark, more settled conditions and most importantly of all some improved field sizes. Just too many races with 4 - 6 runners and no opportunity to get a return?

Today's Pre-List.

Only 3 no: runners for the £12k novice chase on a Saturday at Newcastle. Kempton not much better! The NH industry really is in the grips of recession.
At least we have 11 races potentially to cover today.


















Live Bets:

Only 3 no: for me Live at this stage. I might take another look at the Navan 15;30 novice chase - see if the market cristalizes into a Live frame near the off.

I managed to pick up two additional races later in the card. The Navan 15;30 did settle into a Live Dutch frame nearer the off and also 16;30 maiden formed a playable 2 runner frame, which wasn't the case earlier. So an ok saturday's turnover.

saturday 13 feb

Dutch Lite Bets

The first few weeks of the year have been pretty desperate for me with conditions and reduced fields making it hard to take profit. Just about keeping head above water - but much the same on today,s cards.

Today's Live Bets.


Even the Saturday cards are pretty low calibre and wiped out fields. At the moment, out of 12 race selections I am down to just 3 Live opportunities at the moment

friday 5 february

Dutch Lite Bets


Yesterday's Results.


Took a loss  yesterday in the 14;25 Clonmel with 5th in the market coming in against the 4 runner Frame I put up. Willie Mullins took the race with his second string & Ruby Walsh up @ 16's. Can do without that Mr Mullins!
(both horses Cheltenham entries, one fav, other 16's? and top jock)



Today's Live Bets.

•  3 no: bets for me off the afternoon cards with a lot of races filtered out.

***The 13;40 race market has moved and is now a Live 2 runner Dutch Frame; return @ 79 - IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES TO THE OFF - FRAME PRICE GAP TOO SMALL, SO LEAVE IT***

 *** SIMILAR MOVE IN THE 14;10 - OK TO TAKE ON ATO ***

thursday 4 feb

Dutch Lite Bets


Today's Live Bets.

•  7 no: bets for me off the afternoon cards. 16;15 need to check the price gap later.

wed 3 feb

Dutch Lite Bets

Here is todays Pre-List race selection.
 

 
If your not familiar with the gruss Betting Assistant software - here's how to set up the pre list automatically in the gruss Quick pick listing.
Its simple enough to match up through all NH/turf/AW. The only variant will be the Quick pick list will include the races with only 2 or 3 runners. 

Today's cards:

First four races off today's cards

• Update added for remainder of cards

february 2

Dutch Lite Bets

Of the four races yesterday the 14;50 Frame drifted out and didn't need to use the margin bet near the off. fav. won, so either way. Also I marked up the 16;45 as a fav_hedge bet. This market tightened up and you could only get the 5 runner frame as a straight Dutch later. Good fortune because the fav. took it.

Today down to three races and only two of these playable. Admittedly you could take on the 2 runner frame in the 4 runner claimer, but I wouldn't advise it?

Today's Pre-List:

• 14;45 Taunton - 2 runner Dutch Frame - I'm taking this one early as I expect the return to dissappear.

• 15;30 Sthw - 3 runner Dutch Frame - again I'm taking this one early. The racings just not worth hanging around for!

I've added full 2015 Results to the RH side Page index

Monday 1 february

Dutch Lite Bets

I was knocked out with a viral infection for nearly two weesks early Jan - so decided to throw the towel in on January. As it turned out the results were not great so no great loss for me.


Will update the year end + jan results over next 24 hrs Won't be putting up so many Live bets this year but hope to cover the principles in more detail. 

Today's Pre-List:

Four potential races today 

• 13;35 Plumpton - is a standard 3 runner Dutch Frame

• 14;35 Wolv - another standard 3 runner Dutch Frame

• 14;50 Kempton - requires the margin Bet to achioeve the 3 runner Dutch frame (Margin bet with 3rd in market taken at break even as a cover bet only)

• 16;45 Wolv - 5 runner Dutch Frame using the fav_hedge bet ( the favorite is currently hedged  

Here is my screen shot for the 14;35 The Dutch Frame on this race is unbalanced with 4 runners below the Pivot Price of 12.5 But only three of thes in the Frame Frome the RH chart we can see the 3 runner frame is clear of the 82.5% probability threshold. On these 4-3 Dutch Frames there is a retun Cap of 85 _ and if the frame drifts through this nearer to the off it is a No Bet. Even though there is a good Price Gap of 5.3 on the frame - can't take these particular bets until ATO.