Sunday 2nd Sept

Third Quarter; Results Roundup

The consistent good racing conditions through the summer produced some great monthly returns.
August however reversed the trend with a large drawdown. This was coincidental with the first rainfall and change in going for weeks over the hot summer.
I'm always very loathe to ascribe any specific cause to a bunch of loses - the random variables are always a stronger effect than any other?
The change in going in Autumn would be the signal for many trainers to introduce horses they were saving for autumn campaigns. The York Ebor meeting is full of these every year.

 So the old chestnut Correlation does not imply Causation.

Fact is drawdowns eating profit are hard to bet through. If your not absolutely confident of your edge you will not see it through 99% of punters fail through a combination of lack of bankroll and loss of belief that their edge will return and overcome short term volatility.
Or of course they are simply kidding themselves that they have found a long term edge.


Here is the graph showing monthly returns 2015 to August 2018 and the monthly/cumulative actual figures.

Th end result was not a loss for august and at the beginning of September the losses were recovered.

Here are the results for the weekend 1st + 2nd September.
There were 24 no: potential selected races , but unfortunately they were filtered down to 9 no: live selections. As it turned out all 24No: races would have been wins! Far from always the case.

Five of the filtered races were Group races which are heavily filtered out  - strength in depth often justifies this Sometimes I take these races on placing manual bets after having done more detailed research on the field. Mainly because I like to be involved in the quality races.

P/L at the 2nd of Sept is 29,210 with a strike rate on the live bets of 92.89% So I'm pretty confident of getting through the 35k base target for another year.

 
I'll post some details of the August reverse in fortunes, dates etc. A disappointing April a further hard hit in August but a great summers return between.