friday 19 august

Dutch Shape of the Market



Ebor Festival Day 3 Group Races

There will be changes to the going around the country today for the first time in a few weeks. York isn't called the Knavesmire for nothing!
Today's Grp 1 sprint hasn't got any market shape and you can cover everything up 40.0 and still miss the winner. Its also unlikely the 14;30 Grp 2 will provide a backable dutch frame.

That just leaves me with the 15;05 York stakes Grp3 race
Nemoralia was going to be the one bet I took at York this week but the changing conditions have put me off. So I will take the fav-Target Bet and the available 6 runner Dutch Frame.
You will see from the screen shot the Price Gap to the next runner out of the frame isn't there at the moment but hopefully it will crystalize before the race.
The 87.7% Book val frame would have covered every winner in the 22yr record except a 33\1 in the 2003 race. Also Targeting the first 3 in the market returns @ 100.

 
Nemoralia put up a very good performance at Ascot on Good to soft before running in a Grp1, so I'll probably end up kicking myself for swerving on the direct bet!

------------------
Damn!!


A Note on Going

Long term on the turf going does affect the returns on favorites. But during any season other factors massively outweigh this effect.

The only time I take note of the going on a daily basis is Turf races - Heavy going.

More importantly if there is a rapid change of going during the day  I cancel bets and on days like today where the going is changing after a long stable period I am pretty cautious.

Here are the stats for all maiden races.
Bear in mind this is a sample > 25k races including the AW races. Currently there are @ 1300 turf maiden races in the season (back in 1991 there where only 800)

 
 Its very clear going has its effect but week to week you would miss far too many betting opportunities factoring it in. Taking any single seasons results can show a variation in the favorite returns figure between 39% (2005) to 47% (2003) That 47% figure is > 2.5 st.d. positive variance. You wouldn't explain much of that checking the going during the season.