A quick look at the graph below shows the first 5 months of the year - I am way off the pace from 2015 - so whats going on?
First here are the raw numbers.
YTD 2015 profit at 31 May 17,222
YTD 2016 profit at 31 May 12,064.
The first 3 months of the year were very slow and a series of drawdowns larger than those in the same period in 2015.
I've added at the bottom of the table one factor which is probably contributing to the downside.
The ave. number of runners in the selected races is down again, this year at 8.6 and this factor influences strongly the number of fav_Hedge bets that can be included. This bet configuration is important to keep the Expectation per bet up
and reduced field sizes are problematic.
So is there any adjustment to these 2016 returns so far?
One change I have made in my own approach is to increase the number of additional Target Bets. These have generated a profit boost of @ 3,300 YTD. I'll post some details on this. A second smaller adjustment is to include a higheer percentage of Margin Bets. What are margin bets again?? I'll post up a review of the various bet configurations.
My only other tactic is to be correctly banrolled and trust the Edge to overcome the volatility in the longer term! Sometimes this is severly tested and you do really need to know your Edge is there and solid - but that applies to any attempt to take money comnsistently out of the exchange markets.
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