Sat 27 January

Race Selection; Gruss QPL

To match up on Race selection you need to set up the Quick Pick List in Gruss as per the screen shot.

Menu Bar > Options > Preferences > Quick Pick List /markets

Tick off the All UK win & All Ire Win in the LH auto load box.

Type in the following list in the exclusions box, highlighted RH side:- (the bottom 4 are redundant on latest version but can leave in ok)

PA
Hcap Hrd
Hcap Chs
NHF
Nursery
Hcap
Sell Stks
Without
Reverse
Forecast
 v

So simple List of 7 exclusions to generate correct Race Selection QPL.
Check the rest of the Preferences box for match. You need to close and re-open Gruss to retain this set up

This will produce (for Sat 27 Jan the 12 N.H. races + 3 A.W. races) the correct Race Selection List ready for export to excel.

The final screen shot is the 'Live Price' import from Gruss. Middle to RH side is the transfer to my own Library format. I leave the export step manual as I like to check the listing on a daily basis. From time to time Betfair insist on slightly changing , re-spacing a race type description, which then needs adding into the library.

Tuesday 23 January

Dutch Bet Configuration

Every time I see that monthly comparison graph in the previous post that losing 2016 September month irritates me to hell! Where did that come from??


Here are screen shots showing the Four bet configurations referred to around the blog.

 1. eq Liab
Equal return on all runners included in the Dutch Bet to a fixed Liability.
Stake Total 486 ~ Return 75.80

 
































 2. fav_Hedge
Return set to a 100 return on all runners except the favorite.
Balance of stake onto the fav. In this example 51.84 return off the favourite and 100 return off each of the other 3 runners included in the Dutch Bet.

 3. margin bet
In this bet  the return on the longest priced runner in the Dutch bet is set to zero with equal return off the remaining runners.
This bet configuration kicks in if the return is low (below 50) or to allow the Dutch Frame to stretch to an additional runner to achieve the minimum 82.5% Book Value. 
Three runners return 88.23. Stakes 250, 93, 84 & 59 

4. Target Bet
This bet configuration  (automated) sets the return off all runners in the Dutch bet to zero with all the profit targeted to the fav.

Of course placing the bet manually you can Target any runner or combination ~ if you are blessed with information straight from the horses mouth!
st runner as away over Xmas New Year watching the racing from the sunshine! 

Return on the fav 150.81. On the other 3 runners in the Dutch zero

Update: The above screen shots where not taken in a live bet situation and are overlayed on an early  market before it is fully formed.  They are only to outline the stakes and returns using the four different Dutch Bet configuarations. In the past some people have jumped to conclusion that on 4) Target Bets I was just moving to a single bet on the favourite. So the screen shot shows the stakes across all 4 no: runners included in the Dutch bet and the profit taken on the favourite only.


Adding the Live Screen shot for this race.
It ended up stretching to a 5 no: runner frame to cover the two equal priced  4th + 5th in the frame. I was surprised the bet didn't switch to a margin bet and push the reurn above 50 ~ I need to take a look at that.

fav' took the race, it qualified as a Target bet too but below the min. return of 95 I take them.

Saturday 20th January

Late New Year ~ Year End Round Up. 

I was away over Xmas New Year watching the racing from the sunshine! 

Here are the figures covering the six months July to December for 2017

Return on the six months of @ 23,000 off the standard 486 stake.
Edge 4.28% and strike rate 95.2%

In the early part of 2017 i made some changes to the Shape of Market filters. This was to combat the continuing decline in field sizes (other than AW) and it looks to have paid off over the last six months of the year.

The following is a comparison of the monthly and cumulative results for the three years the blog has been running. 

 Prior to the blog starting a lot of information on prior years was developed in a private members forum. The claim I made was the Dutching method would deliver @ 35k to the 486 staking.

The blog results have lived up to it.

This is achieved using Betfair SP results - a yardstick very difficult to conquer long term.